The New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs dispute the AFC championship at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.
The Patriots are coming off a beat down of the Los Angeles Chargers while the Chiefs head to championship Sunday with a big win over the Indianapolis Colts tucked in their belts. The winner of this game will represent the American Football Conference (AFC) in this year’s edition of the Super Bowl.
After an 11-5 season and earning the 2nd seed in the AFC, the New England Patriots took the field in the divisional round and blasted the Los Angeles Chargers 41-28. Tom Brady threw for 343 yards with one score while running back Sony Michel rushed for 129 yards with three scores and Julian Edelman had 9 catches for 151 yards.
Brady threw for 4,355 yards with 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the season. Michel ran for 931 yards with 6 scores on 209 carries while Edelman had 850 yards and six touchdowns on 74 receptions. The New England offense scored 27.3 points per game during the regular season.
The Kansas City Chiefs finished the regular season with a 12-4 record and earned the Top seed in the AFC. In their first playoff game of the season, the Chiefs produced a dominant 31-13 win over the Indianapolis Colts. Patrick Mahomes threw for 278 yards on 27-41 passing. However,Mahomes threw zero touchdowns against Los Angeles, marking only the second time this season where he was held to zero touchdowns in a game.
The Chiefs were the top scoring team in the league at 35.3 points per game. Mahomes threw for 5,097 yards with 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Tyreek Hill had 1,479 yards and 12 touchdowns on 87 carries. Damien Williams rushed for 256 yards with four touchdowns on 50 carries.
New England is 11-3 SU in their last 14 games played. The Patriots are 19-6 SU in their last 25 games on the road. The Chiefs are 17-5 SU in their last 22 games played. Kansas City is 8-1 SU in their last 9 home games. Head to head, the Patriots are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against the Chiefs. But the Chiefs are 5-1 SU in their last six home games against the Patriots.
When we talk about New England, we’re going to talk about the rich history between Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, the best coach/quarterback duo in the history of the NFL. The pair has led the Patriots to an 8-4 SU record in the AFC Championship game and an even more impressive 5-3 SU record as an underdog in the playoffs. Most recently – last week I mean, the Patriots were counted out against the Chargers in the Divisional Round. Look what they did. Brady threw for 343 yards against the Chargers, his second best passing game of the season. Talk about getting old.
Belichick is 6-2 SU in his all-time head to head meeting against Andy Reid and the Patriots have won seven out of the last 10 games against the Chiefs. New England is also 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. However, New England has actually lost its last three road playoff games and the home team has won the last 10 Conference Championship Games in the NFL plus the favorite is 10-2 in the last 12 AFC Championship Games. This is where home field becomes an advantage for the Chiefs
Mahomes is having the more productive season and he has more weapons at his disposal. Man for man, Kansas City has the better lineup and has played better overall this season. Aside from their explosive offense, the Chiefs have an underrated home defense which some experts say is going to rattle Tom Brady. Kansas City also has the advantage of playing at home and if history is correct, home field may be their biggest advantage in this game. But again, don’t count the Patriots out of this one. They’ve been here and done that before. I’m going with experience over talent here. Brady’s been here before and while he doesn’t have the best team, he knows what to do to win. We’re picking the New England Patriots to beat the Kansas City Chiefs on 1/20/19.
The Patriots are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games played. The Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games played and 2-4 ATS in their last six home games. Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against New England but the Patriots are 4-2 ATS in their last six road games against the Chiefs.
The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games, 19-8 ATS in their last 17 against teams with winning records and 5-1 ATS in their last six January games. The Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff games. . I’ll take the plus points and go with New England’s experience. Prediction: Patriots +3
The total has gone under in 8 out of the last 10 games by New England. The under is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last five road games. The total has gone over in five out of the last 7 games played by the Chiefs. Kansas City has seen the under hit in 11 out of their last 14 games.Head to head, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Patriots and chiefs.
The total has gone under in 8 out of the last 10 games played by the Patriots while the under is 11-3 in the Chiefs’ last 14 home games Both teams won their divisional round games by playing good defense. New England’s road games had an average combined score of 45.63 while Kansas City’s home games had an average combined score of 49.67 this season. I know both teams combined for 83 points in their first meeting of the season. But this 55.5 seems so high for a game of this magnitude. Prediction: Under 55.5
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