Canelo Alvarez vs Callum Smith 12/19/2020 Boxing Betting Odds and Prediction

Boxing superstar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez will return to the ring on Saturday night to challenge Callum Smith for the super middleweight title. The bout will be held at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.

This will mark Canelo’s first bout since knocking out Sergey Kovalev last November 2, 2019. On the other hand, Smith will be defending his titles for the third time. Like Alvarez, this will be his first fight of the year and is undoubtedly his biggest challenge to date.

Aside from Smith’s WBA (Super) and Ring magazine super middleweight title, the WBC super-middleweight belt will also be up for grabs on Saturday night. That title became vacant after David Benavidez missed weight for his fight against Roamer Alexis Angulo last August. Benavidez previously won the title via 10th round TKO but was ineligible to defend it. The winner of the bout will then be mandated to face WBC no. 2 Avni Yildirim in his next bout.

With the stakes raised, expect fireworks in this high-stakes bout. Let’s take a look at the two fighters and make out prediction:

Canelo Alvarez

Canelo Alvarez is a four-division world champion who is currently the WBA (super), Ring, and lineal middleweight champion and WBA (regular) super middleweight champion. The 30-year old from Guadalajara, Mexico is considered as the biggest star in boxing today. Alvarez is currently listed as the no. 1 pound for pound fighter in the world by The Ring Magazine.

Alvarez is 5-9 tall with a reach of 70.5 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. The Mexican has a record of 53-1 with 36 knockouts with his only loss coming at the hands of Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013. Since that defeat, Alvarez is undefeated in his last 12 bouts, including nine title bouts. Canelo owns wins over elite fighters like Shane Mosley, Austin Trout, Erislandy Lara, James Kirkland, Miguel Cotto, Amir Khan, Gennady Golovkin, Daniel Jacobs, and Sergey Kovalev. He also has a 9th round TKO win over Liam Smith, Callum’s brother.

This has been a rough year for Canelo. Not only has he seen his annual schedule disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic but he was embroiled in a legal battle with his promoters. Alvarez sued DAZN and Golden Boy Promotions last month for breach of contract among others. Alvarez is now a contractual free agent and this is his first bout as such.

Callum Smith

Callum Smith is the WBA (Super) and Ring super middleweight champion. The 30-year old from Liverpool, England is a former British and European super-middleweight champion. Prior to turning pro, Smith was a silver medalist at the 2010 Commonwealth Games and participated in the 2012 Olympic Qualifiers.

This will mark Smith’s third fight in the United States and his first in Texas. He is the youngest of England’s boxing brothers. Eldest brother Paul was a former British super middleweight champion while Stephen was a British and Commonwealth super featherweight champion. Olde brother Liam is a former WBO light middleweight champion who lost to Canelo in 2016.

Who Wins?

Alvarez has punishing body blows which he uses in the early stages of the fight to slow down his opponents and set them up for head shots. He has excellent head and body movement that allows him to stay in the pocket while avoiding heavy damage. Canelo is also an excellent counter-puncher who delivers his counters with plenty of power. In his two bouts against Triple G, he has employed different strategies, showing he can be an offensive fighter or a defensive one, making him very difficult to plan against.

Smith’s size makes him tough to figure out. He is 6-3 tall with a 78-inch reach which is massive for the super middleweight division. Smith is effective in keeping opponents at the end of his punches. His style of not using plenty of movement forces his opponents to engage with him. This gives him the advantage of sticking to them using his very long reach. Smith also does a good job of bending at the hips to avoid damage while countering as well.

Smith has a real shot here. He has the size that could bother Alvarez inside the ring. Smith has the better jab between the two and that’s going to be a factor in this fight. However, Alvarez’s ability to cut distance is probably the best in boxing right now. Once Canelo is in range, Smith’s size will be a disadvantage because he will be an easier target for the Mexican.

There is no rehydration clause for this fight but Smith could come in drained, being the naturally bigger fighter. Alvarez will be the faster fighter here and he will throw punch combinations to back up Smith. The Brit will use his length to keep Canelo at bay but the Mexican should be able to find ways to get in and create damage. I like Canelo’s body shots to be the key to this fight.

Prediction: Canelo Alvarez

Over/Under Betting

Canelo Alvarez is a heavy puncher and it won’t be a surprise if he scores a stoppage here. However, the Mexican has gone nine or more rounds in six out of his last seven bouts with only Rocky Fielding unable to make it to 9.5 rounds. Meanwhile, Smith has gone 10 or more rounds in four out of his last six bouts.

I think that Smith’s reach will help him avoid a Canelo onslaught. I’m not discounting the possibility of a knockout here but given Smith’s size and reach, it won’t come early. I like these two to engage in a chess match and while Canelo takes it in the end, it’s not going to be a walk in the park. I expect this fight to go 12 rounds or at least get to the championship rounds.

Prediction: Over 9.5 (-150)