Anthony Joshua defends his WBO, IBF, WBA and IBO heavyweight titles against Alexander Povetkin on Saturday September 22, 2018 at London’s Wembley Stadium.
Joshua, a former 2012 Olympic gold medalist, has a near perfect record of 21-0 with 20 knockouts. The pride of England won the IBF title by knocking out Charles Martin in 2016 and then unified it with the WBA and IBO belts a year later after knocking out Wladimir Klitschko. Joshua annexed the WBO title last March with a unanimous decision win over Joseph Parker, in the only Joshua fight that has not ended in a stoppage.
Joshua is 28 years old and stands a towering 6-6 with an 82 inch reach advantage. He is the total package with explosive punching power, tremendous hand speed and footwork and a high fight IQ. Although he has one punch knockout power, Joshua can break down his opponents round by round. Although he is a very dangerous fighter, he isn’t too hard to hit. However, before you get to him, you have to eat his power shots first.
Alexander Povetkin is better than what the odds are saying. The 39 year old is a former WBA heavyweight champion and a former Olympic gold medalist like AJ. Povetkin is 34-1 with 24 knockouts and his only loss was a unanimous decision defeat to Wladimir Klitschko in 2013. Since that loss, Povetkin has picked up eight straight wins including six by knockout.
The challenger is 6-2 with a reach of 75 inches. He is your typical Russian boxer who likes to fight on the inside has a solid chin and can trade punches with ease. Povetkin failed a pair of drug tests for his supposed bouts with Deontay Wilder and Bermane Stiverne but has since returned and is coming off a knockout win over David Price. No doubt he has more experience than Joshua but the problem is he may be too slow for his younger opponent.
No doubt, Joshua is the favorite here but perhaps not by a mile. Joshua opened as a -1600 but is now down to a -1200. Povetkin is 39 and may no longer be the beast he was in his prime but he is still a dangerous puncher. David Price can attest to that. This is the heavyweight division where one punch can end the fight and Povetkin does have legit punching power so AJ can’t be too complacent here.
But while I give more respect to Povetkin than the betting gods do, I think Joshua wins this fight after Povetkin gives him some early trouble. We’re picking Anthony Joshua to win but at -1200, he doesn’t provide much value for bettors. However, the prop bets for this fight provide better yield and I think we’ll have to go there for this fight:
These two giants have a combined 44 knockouts in a total of 55 fights. That’s an 80% knockout rate right there for you. In Joshua’s case, only former WBO heavyweight champion Joseph Parker has gone the distance against him. Povetkin is 9-1 in his last 10 fights with 7 knockouts. No question Joshua always goes for the knockout. Given AJ’s 7 inch reach advantage, the only chance for Povetkin here is a knockout and expect him to go for broke. Prediction: Fight is not going the distance, either way.
Aside from that prop bet, you can also bet on the mode of victory and this one has perhaps the best value for Anthony Joshua:
The -275 for a Joshua stoppage is the best odds if you want to bet on the champ. The -300 for AJ winning on points also has good value. If you ask me though, I believe Joshua is getting the stoppage here. He is fighting an older and smaller opponent in front of Britain. No doubt Joshua wants to impress here.
If you think that Povetkin is capable of producing an upset, the method of victory provides better value for the challenger, Povetkin is older and slower but like Joshua, he possesses one punch knockout power. As we said earlier, a decision victory is unlikely given Joshua’s advantages in size, youth and speed so we expect Povetkin to go all out for the knockout. I think if he can land cleanly, he has more than enough power to drop AJ. And i think this is what makes this fight somewhat dangerous for AJ. So if you’re upset minded, go for Povetkin by KO,TKO or DQ.
All things considered though, this should be a hard earned win for Anthony Joshua. Given his advantages in size, speed and power, I think Joshua wins by stoppage here. Prediction: Anthony Joshua by KO,TKO or DQ
Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.
