The Atlanta Falcons travel to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers at Heinz Field on Sunday October 7, 2018.
Both teams are looking to get their seasons on track after being the two most disappointing teams so far in the first four weeks of the 2018 NFL season. The Falcons are coming off back to back home losses to the Saints and Bengals. The Steelers meanwhile will look to avoid the same fate after dropping last week’s home game against the Ravens.
Atlanta was touted to contend for the NFC South title before the season began but barely four weeks after the season started, they are 1-3 and at last place in their division. As bad as their record looks though, their three losses have been by a combined 13 points so as far as the “sky is falling” is concerned, that may not be the case in Atlanta. However, as far as winning is concerned, they need to win now.
Despite their struggles, quarterback Matt Ryan has done a good job with the Falcons. Ryan is completing 68% of his passes for 1,316 yards with 10 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. In his last two games, Ryan has thrown for 793 yards on 74% completion with 8 touchdowns and no interceptions.
While Atlanta’s offense has been fine, their defense has been horrendous this season. The Falcons rank 28th in the NFL in total yards surrendered at 403.0 yards per contest. They are also third to the last in points given up at 30.5 points. The injuries to Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen and Deion Jones has really hurt Atlanta this season and the rest of the defense must step up if the Falcons hope to live up to their preseason billing.
Heinz Field has always been a place of both tradition and winning culture but that hasn’t been the case lately because the Steelers have lost three straight games at home for the first time since 2012. With their backs probably against the proverbial wall, the Steelers hope to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat at their home field.
Pittsburgh ranks 10th in the NFL in points per game at 25.5 points per game and their passing game has been on point. But the continued absence of running back Le’Veon Bell has hurt the team’s offensive scheme. Without their prized running back, the Steelers have been forced to find offense through the air, making them very one dimensional.
Ben Roethlisberger has completed 64% of his passes and has thrown for 1,414 yards with 8 touchdowns. But because opposing defenses don’t have to worry about the Steelers’ running game, Roethlisberger has been pressured to throw five interceptions while fumbling the ball 4 times in the first four games of the season.
The Steelers are 17-7 SU in their last 24 games at home but just 1-4 SU in their last five home games. Overall, Pittsburgh is 11-4-1 SU in their last 16 games but just 1-3-1 SU in their last five games. Head to head, the Steelers are 9-1-1 SU in their last 11 games against the Falcons and 4-0-1 SU when playing the Falcons in Pittsburgh.
Both these teams are in the bottom six in the league in both yards per game allowed and points per game allowed so defense won’t be much a factor in this game. Offense has never been a problem for the Falcons as they have scored at least 30 points in each of their last three games. Atlanta ranks 6th in points per game at 29.0 while Pittsburgh is four spots lower. One reason is that the Steelers rank only 28th in the NFL in third down conversions. If they can’t keep drives alive, they won’t get more scoring opportunities. Offensively, with Le’Veon Bell still out, I give the edge to the Falcons. Prediction: Falcons +159
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last five game and also 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Pirates are 1-5 ATS in their last six games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played at home. Pittsburgh is also winless in their last six games ATS as favorites. Head to head, Atlanta is 4-2 ATS against Pittsburgh and 6-2 in their last 8 games after giving up 350+ yards in their previous game.
As mentioned earlier, I’m picking the Falcons here because of better offense. I think the Falcons win this game and I’m picking them outright. But if you’re torn between these evenly poor playing teams, then take the plus field goal here are bet on the Falcons. Prediction: Falcons +3
The under is 8-3 in Atlanta’s last 11 games and 5-0 in the Falcons’ last five road games. On the other hand, the total has gone over in 5 out of the last 6 games played by the Steelers and over in seven out of their last 9 games at home. But the total has gone under in 21 out of their last 29 games against teams with losing records and under in four out of their last five games after a defeat. Head to head, the under is 4-2 in the last six meetings between Atlanta and Pittsburgh.
The total of 58 was the highest of any game when the Week 5 lines were first published and because of that, it’s daunting. Given that both teams have played poor defense through four games makes the over tempting especially since the over is 7-2 in the last nine with a combined score of 60.5 at Pittsburgh. Atlanta has allowed 30.5 points per game (30th in the NFL) while Pittsburgh has yielded 29.0 points per game (26th in the NFL) through week 4 so this has the recipe for a shootout in Heinz Field. Prediction: Over 58
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