Bayern Munich Are the Favorites to Win the Bundesliga

The German Bundesliga 1 2019-20 season is set to resume on Saturday, May 16, 2020, after a two-month break due to the coronavirus pandemic.

It is the first among Europe’s elite football leagues to return to action with the English Premier League, Italian Serie A, and Spanish La Liga are still trying to get their seasons back. It can be recalled that the world’s premier football leagues suspended their respective seasons when the COVID-19 outbreak began last March.

According to the German Football Association ( DFB ), the games will be held under strict health protocols that include banning fans from watching the games at stadiums and requiring all players to undergo COVID-19 tests. Players, coaching staff, and referees will be subject to strict medical and hygiene regulations.

Bayern Munich on Top

The Bundesliga 1 halted its season last March 13, 2020, with teams having nine matches left to play. The clubs were permitted to return to training in mid-April with players working in separate groups.

When the season was suspended Bayern Munich was on track to win its 8th consecutive Bundesliga 1 title as it led the table with 55 points, or four ahead of its closest pursuer, Borussia Dortmund who had 51 points at the break. RB Leipzig was third with 50 points while Borussia Monchengladbach came in 4th at 49 points and Bayer Leverkusen had 47 points to round up the Top 5.

When the betting lines were updated after the return was announced, Bayern Munich was a heavy -500 betting favorite to win for the 8th consecutive term. Dortmund and Leipzig followed at +550 and +900, respectively.

Here are the complete odds to win the 2020 Bundesliga I 2019-20 season. These odds were taken from Bet365 as of 05/10/20:

Bayern Munich was hitting its stride before the league was suspended. In their last 10 games, Bayern had nine wins and one draw with eight of their victories coming by multiple goals. They have earned 28 out of a possible 30 points during that period and have outscored their opponents by an aggregate score of 38-6.

The club has won the last seven Bundesliga 1 seasons and eight out of the last 10 overall. Bayern had a four-point lead over Borussia Dortmund when play was suspended. With a handful of games remaining, the oddsmakers don’t think their closest rivals can catch-up, especially with the way that the champions were playing before the season was halted.

Borussia Dortmund was also in excellent form when play was paused. The BVB have won seven out of their last eight fixtures. Their only loss during this period was a 4-3 setback against Bayern Leverkusen last February. They have outscored their opponents 27-9 during that span.

The key to Dortmund’s success has been 19-year old Erling Haaland who has scored nine goals in his first six Bundesliga 1 appearances. However, form may not matter much when the season resumes because the teams have not played in two months.

Who Wins?

Dortmund has defeated Bayern in each of their last two home meetings. Then there is also the possibility that the layoff cools down Bayern and they might drop a point along the way. If you think that Dortmund will beat Bayern, then the +550 odds for them to win is the bet for you. However, I think that Bayern’s four-point lead is enough to win the title.

There aren’t too many games left to play in the 2019-20 Bundesliga 1 season. Bayern Munich has three games against Wolfsburg, Werder Bremen, and SC Freiburg. These teams have a combined 72 points this season. Having said that, it would take a total collapse in their remaining fixtures for their rivals to catch up. That said, I do not doubt that Bayern Munich is headed to an 8th consecutive title.

Prediction: Bayern Munich

Betting Odds Without Bayern Munich

However, Bayern is too pricey right now so If you want a bet with a better value, hear out this next proposition.

There is an alternative outright bet at Bet365 and it is a bet on who wins the Bundesliga 1 if Bayern Munich doesn’t exist. This is the “Bet Without” and as of May 10, 2020, that bet offers better value:

• Borussia Dortmund -120
• RB Leipzig +100
• Borussia M’gladbach +2000
• Bayer Leverkusen +4000

Borussia Dortmund is the favorite here and if you want to bet based on the current table, betting on Borussia here has better value (-120) than betting for Bayern Munich to win the Bundesliga (-500). However, I would like to talk about the teams’ remaining schedule before you make a bet here.

Dortmund and Leipzig have the easiest schedule among the Top 5 ( including Bayern Munich ). However, five out of the last nine opponents for Dortmund are teams inside the Top 9 in the table, including Schalke (6th), Wolfsburg (7th), and Bayern (1st).

On the other hand, the average rank of Leipzig’s opponents is 11.67 and only have to play four teams in the Top 10. Their first games are against the 8th, 15th, 13th, and 10th teams in the table plus they host BVB in their second to the last match.

Leipzig is also the only team in the Top 5 that doesn’t have to play Bayern Munich in their remaining games. The club was also on a hot streak before the season was halted as they lost just once in their last 16 matches.

Prediction: Leipzig at even money right now is the best value bet if you want to bet on the outright winner of the 2019-20 Bundesliga 1 term.