The Cincinnati Bengals continue their playoff run with a trip to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Chiefs in the AFC championship game.
Cincinnati upset the AFC’s top seed Tennessee Titans 19-16 in the Divisional Round in the first road playoff win in franchise history. The Bengals are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last six games played and will need to accomplish more history if they are to advance to the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs are now the Super Bowl favorites after the Packers were ousted by the 49ers. Kansas City has been on a roll with nine wins in their last 10 regular-season games but the one loss during that span came at the hands of these Bengals who defeated them 34-31 in Cincinnati.
The Bengals were one of the best road teams this season at 6-3 SU and they proved that when they upset the Titans in Tennessee last weekend. Joe Burrow threw for 348 yards with one interception while Ja’Marr Chase caught five passes for 109 yards. However, it was their defense that forced the interception that set up the game-winning field goal.
Burrow threw for 446 yards with four scores during their regular-season win over the Chiefs. Ja’Marr Chase caught 11 passes for 266 yards in that game too, both career-best numbers for the rookie WR. The two may need similar games if they are to repeat against the Chiefs.
Cincinnati ranks 7th in the league in passing at 259.0 yards per game and are 23rd in rushing at 102.5 yards per game. They are 7th in scoring at 27.1 points per game scored and 17th in scoring defense at 22.1 points per game allowed.
The Chiefs closed out their regular season campaign on fire, with just one loss in their last 10 regular season assignments. Their offense has even gotten better in the playoffs, scoring 42 points each against the Steelers and Bills. The last time out, however, it wasn’t easy as Patrick Mahomes needed his magic to send the game to OT. They also got the luck of the coin toss and beat the Bills by getting the first possession in the extra period.
Mahomes threw for 378 yards with 3 TDs including the game-winning score to Travis Kelce in OT. Kelce finished with 96 yards on 8 catches while Tyreek Hill had 150 receiving yards on 11 receptions. Mahomes also added 69 rushing yards to lead the Chiefs while Clyde Edwards-Helaire added 6- yards on the ground.
The Chiefs rank 4th in passing at 281.8 yards per game. They are 16th in rushing at 115.0 rushing yards per game. Kansas City is the 4th best scoring team in the league at 28.2 points per game and they are 8th in scoring defense at 21.4 points per game allowed.
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in their last six games played. The Bengals are 6-3 SU in nine road games played this season, 5-1 SU in their last six games against the AFC, and 4-1 SU in their last five games against the AFC West division.
Kansas City is 11-1 SU in their last 12 games played. The Chiefs are 9-2 SU in 11 home games played this season 8-1 SU in their last nine games against the AFC, and 10-2 SU in their last 12 games against the AFC North.
Head to head, the Bengals are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Chiefs.
Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have been getting much of the attention but make no mistake, the Cincinnati defense has been a big reason for their success. They set up last weekend’s game-winning field goal by intercepting Ryan Tannehill near midfield, one of their three picks during the game. The Bengals have allowed 21 or fewer points in regulation in six out of their last seven games and eight out of their last 10 overall.
It took a while for the Chiefs to get going this season but once they figured things out, there was no stopping the offense. The Chiefs have scored 42 points in both postseason games and have been held to under 31 points only once in their last seven games played.
Mahomes is, without doubt, the best passer left in the playoffs but the Chiefs running game also finished with 182 rushing yards the last time out with Clyde Edwards-Helaire accounting for 60 on seven rushes.
Cincinnati’s defense will have to bring its A-game here to have a chance of beating the Chiefs. But with the Bengals’ secondary ranked 26th against the pass, there may be no stopping Mahomes here.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
The Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games played. Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games, 5-0 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win, 4-0 ATS in their last four games after a straight-up win, 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs, 5-0 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs, 6-0 ATS in their last six games against the AFC, 5-0 ATS in their last five road games against an opponent with a winning home record, and 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
The Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played. Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in their last six games played at home, 7-1 ATS in their last eight Sunday games, 6-0 ATS in their last six games as home favorites, 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after straight up win, 7-1 ATS in their last eight games played on grass, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS win, 6-1 ATS in their last seven playoff games, and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the AFC.
Head to head, the home team is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
The Cincinnati defense will need to force turnovers if they want to hang with Kansas City. The Bengals’ offensive line must also do a better job of protecting Burrow and they also must improve their red-zone efficiency.
No matter how good Burrow and the offense will be, Cincinnati will likely come up short if the defense doesn’t get stops and turnovers. There is no way the Bengals’ offense can match the Kansas City offense.
For the Chiefs to cover this one-touchdown spread, their defense has to step up, especially if Tyrann Mathieu can’t play on Sunday. Given the stakes, I think they do and should win this game by double-digits.
Prediction: Chiefs -7
The total has gone under in five out of the last seven games played by the Bengals. The under is 4-0 in their last four playoff games as underdogs, 6-0 in their last six playoff games overall, 10-1 in their last 11 January games, 34-13-3 in their last 51 games played on grass, 40-18-2 in their last 60 road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 4-1 in their last five games when accumulating more than 250 passing yards in their previous game, and 19-7-2 in their last 28 road games.
The total has gone over in each of the last seven games played by the Chiefs. The over is 5-0 in their last five games after an ATS win, 5-0 after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, 6-0 in their last six games after a straight-up win, 7-0 in their last seven games as betting favorites, 4-0 in their last four games as home favorites, 5-0 in their last five January games, 7-0 in their last seven games against the AFC, and 4-0 in their last four home games.
With an explosive offense and a leaky defense, Kansas City’s last eight games have seen an average of 60.4 points per game scored, including seven that went over the betting total. Cincinnati’s pass defense may not be up to the task of limiting Mahomes and that is only going to add more points to the KC total.
The Bengals will have their opportunities to score given Kansas City’s defense isn’t as good as their offense. That defense allowed 329 yards through the air against Buffalo so scoring won’t be a big issue here. Making stops will be.
Prediction: Over 54.5
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