Blake Daniels, November 18, 2022

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The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers meet in Week 11 NFL action at the Acrisure Stadium on Sunday.

Cincinnati is coming off its bye week and the Bengals are looking to catch the Baltimore Ravens on top of the AFC North Division team standings. Prior to taking the week off, Cincinnati defeated the Carolina Panthers 42-21.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are coming off a 20-10 win over the New Orleans Saints as 1-point favorites the last time out. The Steelers are currently two games behind the Bengals in the standings but they improved to 2-0 this season with linebacker T.J. Watt on the field. Watt suffered an injury in Week 1 and missed the next 7 games with the Steelers going 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS without him.

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow has thrown for 2,535 passing yards with 18 touchdowns and 6 interceptions while Joe Mixon leads the Bengals in rushing with 585 rushing yards and six rushing TDs this season. Ja’Marr Chase is Burrow’s favorite weapon as Chase has caught 47 passes for 606 yards and 6 TD grabs. Chase however continues to miss games due to injury. Tee

Higgins is next in line with 564 receiving yards on 41 grabs with 3 TD catches while Tyler Boyd has caught 4 scores and has a total of 537 receiving yards this season. Germaine Pratt leads the Cincinnati defense with 60 tackles while Trey Hendrickson has a team-best 4 sacks this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Kenny Pickett has thrown for 1,161 passing yards with 2 TDs and 8 interceptions while completing 66.7% of his passes. Najee Harris is the Steelers’ top rusher with 460 rushing yards this season. Diontae Johnson leads the Steelers with 47 catches for 435 receiving yards while Pat Freirmuth has 403 receiving yards and George Pickens 370 receiving yards.

The Steelers’ defense is led by Myles Jack who has a team-high 72 total tackles including 43 solo tackles. Alex Highsmith is the Pittsburgh team leader in sacks with 8.5 on the season while Minkah Fitzpatrick leads the Steelers with a total of 3 interceptions this season.

Bengals vs Steelers SU Prediction

The Bengals are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games played against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is also 3-1 SU in their last 4 home games against Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Bengals SU trends:

• The Bengals are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played.
• The Bengals are 2-3 SU in their 5 road games played this season.
• The Bengals are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played against the AFC North Division.
• The Bengals are 1-4 SU in their last 5 November games.

Pittsburgh Steelers SU trends:

• The Steelers are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games played.
• The Steelers are 2-2 SU in their last 4 games played at home.
• The Steelers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games played against the AFC.

So far, the Bengals have gone 1-1 without Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup. The Cincinnati Pro Bowl wide receiver continues to miss time with a hip issue and is expected to miss a few more weeks before returning to action. Without Chase, the Bengals lost to their rivals Cleveland Browns 32-13 as three-point favorites on the road in Week 9 but bounce back to maul the Panthers in their most recent outing.

The last time these two teams played, the Steelers could not contain Chase who had 10 catches, 129 receiving yards, and 1 TD grab. In that game, however, QB Joe Burrow threw 4 interceptions and was sacked 7 times to negate his 338-passing-yard performance. The Bengals line has been better since that game but will face a tough test with Watt back for the Steelers.

Pittsburgh’s struggle without Watt is well-documented. They are 1-9 SU in games without him. The lone victory was a 20-18 upset win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game where they were 9.5 home underdogs.

Meanwhile, Watt put his stamp on last week’s win against the New Orleans Saints. Although the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year did not record a sack, he logged in four tackles and helped the team overcome the absence of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick who was out after undergoing appendix surgery. Watt’s presence also helped Alex Highsmith record two of his team-high 8.5 sacks and his first since the win over the Bucs.

Cincinnati’s key to winning this game is their offense. The Bengals have gone over the total in each of their last 3 games and have averaged 30 points per game during that span. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has not scored more than 20 points in regulation time this year so if the Bengals strike fast and score over 20 points here, they should be in good shape.

The Steelers have allowed 20 or fewer points five times in their last 9 games played so it’s obvious that defense is the key to their success here. Pittsburgh has gone 4-0-1 ATS in those five games and considering the Bengals have scored under 20 points in their four losses this season, we know how the Steelers are going to win this one.

Watt is going to make this game more interesting. However, a well-rested Cincinnati team still has too many weapons for the Steelers to overcome. Given Pittsburgh’s offensive woes, they won’t be able to keep up with Joey B and the Bengals.

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals vs Steelers ATS Prediction

The Bengals are 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games played against the Steelers.

Cincinnati Bengals ATS trends:

• The Bengals are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
• The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• The Bengals are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.
• The Bengals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 versus the AFC.
• The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up win.
• The Bengals are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 11.
• The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
• The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record.
• The Bengals are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Bengals are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Pittsburgh Steelers ATS trends:

• The Steelers are 4-4-1 ATS in their 9 games played this season.
• The Steelers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• The Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games played on a Sunday.
• The Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 11.
• The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC North.
• The Steelers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Steelers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The Steelers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.
• The Steelers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
• The Steelers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

You can certainly make a case for the Steelers here at +4 points and playing at home. The Bengals are still learning to play without Chase and the offense is indeed different without him. Throw in the fact that the Steelers have Watt back and I won’t blame you if you go with Pittsburgh here.

But the Bengals are coming off their bye week and should be well-rested here. Even without Chase, Burrow still has more than enough targets to make the Pittsburgh defense pay. This game should be the typical division rivalry game – close and well-fought. It could very well go down to the final possession and in that case, you have to go with the team that has the better-experienced QB.

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals -4

Bengals vs Steelers Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in six out of the last 9 games played between these two teams. The under is also 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati Bengals over/under trends:

• The over is 3-0-1 in the Bengals’ last 4 games overall.
• The over is 6-1-1 in the Bengals’ last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The over is 6-1-1 in the Bengals’ last 8 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the Bengals’ last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 37-18-3 in the Bengals’ last 58 road games.
• The under is 4-0 in the Bengals’ last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 8-0-1 in the Bengals’ last 9 versus the AFC.
• The under is 3-0-1 in the Bengals’ last 4 against the AFC North.
• The under is 7-1-1 in the Bengals’ last 9 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 5-1 in the Bengals’ last 6 games in Week 11.
• The under is 8-2-1 in the Bengals’ last 11 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 19-6-2 in the Bengals’ last 27 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
• The under is 35-14-4 in the Bengals’ last 53 games on grass.

Pittsburgh Steelers over/under trends:

• The under is 4-1 in the Steelers’ last 5 games overall.
• The under is 7-1 in the Steelers’ last 8 home games.

• The under is 4-0 in the Steelers’ last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1-1 in the Steelers’ last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Steelers’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 4-1 in the Steelers’ last 5 versus the AFC North.
• The under is 4-1 in the Steelers’ last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.
• The under is 7-3-1 in the Steelers’ last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The under is 45-21-2 in the Steelers’ last 68 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Over/Under Odds: Over 41 (-110), Under 41 (-110)
• Odds from BetOnline as of 11/18/2022

These teams have combined to average 42.66 points per game in their last three head-to-head meetings, including 43 during their first meeting of the season in Week 1. However, the Bengals are without Ja’Marr Chase and have scored 13 and 42 points in their first two games without him.

But remember that the 42 points were against the Panthers and that the Steelers have the 12th-best scoring defense in the NFL this season. Pittsburgh is also next to last in scoring at only 15.6 points per game this season.

As I said earlier, this is a division rivalry game and I don’t think either team will give up an inch to the other. Look for a close game and the Steelers’ defense is going to keep them close to the Bengals all game long.

Prediction: Under 41

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