After the NBA’s regular season, the eight teams with the best records from each conference advance to the league’s playoffs. This is perhaps the most thrilling time of year for fans of betting on basketball, as the unique stylistic matchups and game-to-game strategic adjustments maximize viewing entertainment while creating exciting wagering opportunities. Here, I’ll be sharing a few NBA playoff betting tips for you to maximize on basketball betting.
The postseason participants are seeded in order of their win-loss records and not reseeded as the rounds progress. So, in the first round, the top-ranked squad faces the eighth, two plays seven, three meets six, and so on. Throughout the playoffs, opponents compete in a best-of-seven series, which always follows the 2-2-1-1-1 home/away format.
One of the best things about wagering on the NBA playoffs is that you have tons of relevant data collected throughout the 82-games.
You already know each team’s style of play, how they prefer to defend opponents, and the strengths and weaknesses of their rosters. You’ll also already know how well the athlete’s play with one another and whether the organization has good chemistry.
While it’s true that you’ll have an entire regular season’s worth of data and stats to use for NBA playoffs handicapping, postseason basketball can be significantly different than the first 82 games. Teams play more physically, officials call fewer fouls, and franchises see the same opponent multiple nights in a row. This places a focus on top-notch coaching and the ability to shift strategies and make adjustments from game to game.
Throughout this article, I’m going to highlight a handful of NBA playoff betting tips to help you get the most out of your postseason picks. Some of this information can improve your sports betting overall while others relate to wagering on the individual basketball games themselves.
Used together, you should be able to increase your likelihood of ending the NBA season with more money than you started!
Before the playoffs start, you need to get a few things in line. You don’t want to be recklessly throwing wagers around at random games without a plan. To have any success betting on NBA basketball, you must be organized and disciplined in your approach, and that begins with the concept of “bankroll management.”
Bankroll management involves having a plan for your betting money before you start placing any wagers. Before the postseason, decide how much cash you can afford to lose without it negatively affecting your day-to-day life. You should act as if these funds are already gone, despite that not necessarily being the case. You just want to avoid any “problem gambling” behaviors.
The next step is to determine how frequently you’d like to bet. Set a total number of wagers to make, so you know how to divide your bankroll. Some handicappers calculate a flat amount to stake on each contest, while others use a percentage of the total. For example, they’ll make bets worth 2% of their bankroll, allowing wagers to either grow or shrink in relation to whether they’re winning or losing money overall.
You should set a timeline for how long the bankroll is to last. Once you decide upon an amount to wager on the NBA playoffs, you only use those funds. You don’t burn through your bankroll then start depositing more cash that you can’t afford to lose. That’s how people get themselves into serious financial trouble.
The other essential concept to remember when betting on the NBA playoffs is to think of wagers in terms of their value instead of thinking about which side will win. A handicapper finds value by considering the implied probability, betting odds converted into percentage form, relative to the real likelihood of either side being victorious.
Whenever the actual probability of an outcome is higher than the implied figure, that wager possesses value. Making money betting on the NBA playoffs then depends on your ability to make accurate predictions regarding teams’ chances of winning. Otherwise, your comparison with the odds won’t be helpful.
The tips in this article should help you form more accurate predictions when handicapping the NBA playoffs.
The first round of the NBA playoffs is arguably the most exciting, behind only the finals, in terms of upsets and lovable underdogs pushing high-seeded opponents to their limits. It’s also when promising young rosters reach the postseason for the first time, generating tons of excitement in their cities, which usually results in a higher degree of intensity from the players.
The NBA Playoffs, with their limited slate of games and higher stakes, draw more public money than the regular season, so that “scrappy” young squad that overperformed in the opening round will see lots of action in the second. That’s what makes the opening games of the second round an excellent opportunity to find value.
Despite being beloved by the public, these teams are typically still underdogs in their next matchup. Favorites receiving less than 40% of the spread bet money have beat the spread just under 60% of the time. When they’re favored by 4.5 or more points, that number jumps to roughly 69% against the spread.
Another factor that’s worth considering is the opposing coaches and their respective histories of being able to adjust game plans on the fly throughout a playoff series. Head coaches like Gregg Popovich, Rick Carlisle, and Doc Rivers have shown an ability to win the “chess match” against their peers. They’re always one step ahead in terms of strategy and put their players in the best position to excel.
There’s also an element of familiarity, which plays a key role in a given matchup. That’s why you see some organizations with unique schemes that work in the regular season struggling to execute as the rounds progress. When they’re playing a new opponent every night, there’s only enough time for a basic surface-level game plan. Plus, opponents aren’t as used to each other’s rhythm of play.
With each subsequent contest against the same franchise, the athletes begin to anticipate their matchup’s moves and adjust to their tendencies. The more an organization relies on a particular system, the harder it will be for them to overcome evenly matched or better opponents.
That’s also why you’ll see higher point totals in the opening games of a given round. Familiarity benefits defenses; that’s why you see the scoring decline as a series progresses and why franchises with better overall defensive statistics are more likely to come from behind to advance despite the early deficit.
They may not tell you everything about a playoff matchup, but regular season records between two opponents can still contain some valuable information. That said, the larger the sample size, the better. When two divisional rivals meet in the postseason, the data from their earlier contests are more likely to be reflected in the outcomes throughout the series.
Nevertheless, don’t solely rely on wins-losses and scoring totals without all of the necessary contexts. Were teams missing players due to injury? Did the games take place before a major trade shifted the balance of power for either side? Was one of the squads a late bloomer that needed some time to develop chemistry?
The general public won’t look too closely at these prior matchups, so you may find betting value fading the team that won the regular season series, particularly if it was one-sided.
The pundits on sports radio and cable will just yell about basic numbers without recognizing the deeper context. If you see any significant variables that have changed since the majority of the games were completed, that’s your chance.
Looking at when a team’s wins came in a regular season series can be fairly eye-opening. Obviously, the most recent games will have the highest number of equal, or similar, variables, making them more relevant to the postseason contests.
The third frame of an NBA Playoff series is the first game back home for the lower-seeded team. More often than not, this squad is the underdog. This is especially the case when they’re coming home, having lost both of the opening contests on the road, finding themselves behind, 0-2.
Their fans are usually more vocal, bringing more excitement and energy to the arena on game day. That additional support, combined with the added pressure of potentially facing a three-game deficit, often results in lots of added intensity from the side playing at home.
However, these emotional outbursts are rarely sustainable.
What’s also interesting is that this betting strategy stays relatively consistent, even when the home team for Games 1 and 2 loses both, and is now trailing 0-2 as they head to unfriendly territories. Franchises who have suffered consecutive losses to open any series win 65% of the first-half bets against the spread. So, there’s slightly less value than a squad coming home for Game 3, but it’s still noteworthy.
Without making too many accusations, it’s been a long-accepted rule that officiating will often change to benefit a team facing elimination in order to lengthen the series. These rumors have only been strengthened by things like the Tim Donaghy scandal, where an NBA official was caught using his position to alter the outcomes of games.
He was coerced by organized crime elements, who would get a phone call from Donaghy and told which side to take. They made millions from this scandal over the course of several seasons.
After getting caught, it was Tim Donaghy who told the public there were other crooked refs still in the league, and that most officials knew to extend rounds in the playoffs without having to be told explicitly.
In an interview with a radio station in San Francisco, he explained how the NBA league offices would demonstrate their preference for longer series by highlighting missed calls from previous contests and points of focus for the next, which would help one side over the other.
However, don’t blindly assume they’ll try to extend every series. Franchise popularity and television ratings are crucial elements. An 8th seed in a small market isn’t going to get the same assistance as an organization with established superstars on the roster. The more people tune in for a team, especially if there are highly anticipated matchup possibilities in the following rounds, the more help they’ll get.
“Pressure” is another one of those elements that’s hard to quantify, but matters in the postseason. While it’s true that each series and each individual game has a unique set of conditions, wins, and losses, previous seasons can have an impact on a current matchup.
Sometimes, it will come from an enduring streak, like a franchise that’s been unable to advance out of the first round for a decade or more. It doesn’t matter that very few of the players who have taken part in that drought are still on the roster; it’s a cloud of negative energy that hangs over the franchise and fanbase. You may see a team that looked like champions in the regular season suddenly wilting under the tremendous pressure brought on by prior failures and an anxious city waiting to choke.
Historical baggage will play an even bigger role if it’s specific to the two playoff opponents facing each other. If one side has a long history of being eliminated by a particular rival, they’ll be hearing those stats and seeing clips of all the heartbreaking failures of the past leading up to the series. Meanwhile, the franchise with years of sustained success will enter the contests extra confident that history will repeat itself once again.
This is an excellent factor to consider when looking for series upsets. Find a scenario in which the higher-seeded favorite has been defeated by their opponent in multiple years past. The more recent, the better. They may start to overanalyze the matchup and start pressing on the court.
A good example of this from NBA playoff history was Steve Nash’s “Seven Seconds or Less” Suns versus the San Antonio Spurs. No matter how successful Phoenix’s regular season was, even when they were the best team in the league, they just couldn’t get past Popovich and Tim Duncan when it mattered most.
In addition to teams becoming more familiar with each other and making game-to-game adjustments, it’s also a fact that the playoffs are officiated differently than the regular season. The style of play tends to slow and rely more on half-court offensive sets as well. You have to factor this in while handicapping a series when one of the sides relies on tempo or high-variance strategies to succeed.
A franchise that leads the league in fast-break points, relying on getting the ball down court swiftly to defeat opponents, may stumble when a postseason opponent decides to get back on defense immediately following misses.
Teams will also play much more physical. During the regular season, the athletes need to preserve themselves, with more focus toward not getting injured. Plus, refs are less hesitant to foul out vital players or get them in early foul trouble when it’s just one of 82 games on the schedule.
In the playoffs, every play of every game is highlighted, and the viewers want to watch the best players compete. Officials don’t want to keep the stars off the court, and the organizations know this. As a result, postseason squads will play a more physical brand of basketball from the start, setting the tone and forcing referees to be more lenient.
The NBA Playoffs are a phenomenal time to wager on basketball. There are so many minor differences between regular-season play and postseason play. The series presents many excellent opportunities to fade the public, based on numbers and variables that are no longer significant. With a limited slate of games and higher stakes, casual bettors have more influence over the lines, and those are the people who overreact to media hype and recency.
That’s why there’s almost always value in taking a favorite seeing less than 40% of the betting action (against the spread) or hammering a home team coming into Game 3 down 0-2 in the series. It’s classic “buy low, sell high,” in its truest form.
If you always make the concept of “value” the core of your NBA playoffs betting decisions and use the tips above, you’ll be well on your way to making some big profits in the spring.
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