Mark Young, September 22, 2021

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Are you looking to see who has the best odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?

Today’s post will break down the candidates with the best odds to win the coveted prize and it will also place the odds beside each player updated as of September 22, 2021.

So if you’re looking to bet on the NFL player futures, you will find many suitable candidates. Some of which you may know a lot about. Others will look like dark horse candidates.

Anyway, enough talk. Below are the rookies with the best odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

Mac Jones, QB – New England Patriots: +250

You might be surprised, thinking that Trevor Lawrence would have graced the top spot. However, given Jones’ preseason performance, it’s no surprise to see him boasting the most favorable odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at the moment. 

For one, Jones is entering a far better situation in 2021 than stopgap Cam Newton entered in 2020. Sure, COVID is still a thing, but this season, no one has opted out.

And many of the Patriots elected to opt out in 2020. That, along with the fact the team struggled to stay off injured reserve all season along, plus an exodus of key players to other cities, gave Newton little chances to succeed. 

Fast forward to 2021, and again, those who opted out have returned. The Patriots, as usual, went crazy in free agency and surrounded the team with talent. 

It’s almost like Mac Jones was the missing puzzle piece, and he’s already well-versed in the Patriots system, having played for a like minded coach at Alabama. 

Sure, many will call Jones a “One Year Wonder.” But just like he had in Alabama, Jones has a lot of talent surrounding him in New England. 

Trevor Lawrence, QB – Jacksonville Jaguars:  +600

Lawrence is the consensus favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year. Almost, anyway, since he faces longer odds to win the award than Jones. However, Lawrence, despite being touted as one of the best quarterback prospects to enter the league, faces a learning curve with a rookie coach in Urban Meyer. 

The Lawrence/Meyer combination has potential to be brutal. However, they will also face a brutal learning curve in Lawrence’s rookie season. And unlike over in the AFC East, where Mac Jones and his Patriots can legitimately win the division, you can’t say the same about Lawrence’s Jaguars. 

Sure, Lawrence has talent. But the Jaguars are a young team with a rookie coach. They’re also coming off a one-win season that included 15 straight losses, the worst in franchise history. Lawrence has MVP potential. But he’s not the hottest prospect to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Zach Wilson, QB – New York Jets: +1400

If you love living on the edge, Wilson is your best bet. It seems like everyone wants to like Zach Wilson. Perhaps it’s because he was barely a blip on the NFL scouting radar until the 2020 season in which he lit up college football and wound up getting drafted second overall to the New York Jets. 

Or perhaps it’s because he will have a lot of chances to score with a defensive-minded head coach in Robert Saleh, who will make sure his defense is good enough to get the ball into Wilson’s hands often?

Or even still, perhaps it’s because you just gotta love the talent at pass catcher. The Jets have Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Keelan Cole. That’s 5 good receivers surrounding Wilson. 

Scoff at Wilson and the Jets all you want. But Wilson, who charisma-wise reminds you of Baker Mayfield, has the potential to turn around the Jets just as Mayfield played a role in turning around the Browns. And it can happen in 2021. 

Justin Fields, QB – Chicago Bears: +450

Fields’ odds have become longer since Bears head coach Matt Nagy followed through with his plan to start Andy Dalton at quarterback. That said, it should only be a matter of time before he relents and starts Fields instead. 

Why? Nagy, whose seat will grow hotter by the day, does not know what he has in Justin Fields. But everyone in the NFL Universe knows Dalton is now a backup. It’s only a matter of when, and it should surprise no one if Fields starts after the season’s first month.

Sure, Fields is a riskier bet. Especially since many scouts shied away from him because of his decision-making in 2020. And the Bears aren’t exactly boasting an All-Madden offense. But hey, we will discover early if Fields can elevate the talent of those around him. 

Trey Lance, QB – San Francisco 49ers: +1200

Lance is the 2021 version of Justin Herbert. You know he will get onto the field. You just don’t know when. He has a game manager starting ahead of him; one he’s clearly better than from a raw talent standpoint. 

Yet, you look at his resume, and on paper, you would expect him to struggle against starting NFL defenses. Much like experts said Herbert would struggle in 2020. Only Herbert lit up the league, and Lance has the potential to light up the league. 

Not that Lance will. But if the pieces fall into place as they did for Herbert, Lance will win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year hands down. Sure, he’s a risk, but that risk may pay off.

Najee Harris, RB – Pittsburgh Steelers: +750

Harris is walking into an incredible situation. For one, we saw last season just how erratic Ben Roethlisberger was at quarterback as the season wore on. Roethlisberger looked like a 38-year-old in the twilight of his career and many thought he wouldn’t return. 

Even if Roethlisberger did not return, Harris still would have been the right pick for the Steelers.

Why? Because behind a retooled offensive line, plus one of the league’s best defenses on the other side of the field, Harris could become what Derrick Henry has become for the Tennessee Titans; a bull of a back that just won’t wear down no matter how hard one tries. 

If Harris has a J.K. Dobbins type of rookie season and the quarterbacks listed above him do not fare well in Year 1, he will win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. His position makes him a longer shot to win the award, but it’s more than possible for Harris to win this thing. 

Especially if he becomes the offense’s centerpiece. 

Kyle Pitts, TE – Atlanta Falcons: +1800

You don’t often see a tight end with even close odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. But Kyle Pitts is an outlier. He is built like Calvin Johnson, standing at nearly 6’6, and weighing 245lb. He also ran a 4.44 in the 40-yard-dash, making him an ultra-rare supersized athlete with speed. 

Better yet, the Atlanta Falcons traded Julio Jones to the Tennessee Titans shortly after they drafted Fitts, meaning more opportunities for the rookie tight-end slash receiver. Look for Fitts to contribute early to what will be a struggling Atlanta Falcons team. 

And since this team will struggle, it means they will throw often, allowing for Fitts even more opportunities to make plays. 

Sure, it’s always premature to bet on a tight-end to win rookie of the year. In fact, he will need to post eye-popping numbers. But the potential is there for Pitts to do just that. Especially since he has an experienced quarterback in Matt Ryan. 

Ja’Marr Chase, WR – Cincinnati Bengals: +900

Chase reportedly struggled in training camp. But don’t let that deter you if you’re looking for someone with longer odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Chase and quarterback Joe Burrow turned a lot of heads when they were teammates at Louisiana State University. 

It’s only a matter of time before the dynamic duo again turns heads in the NFL. And if they do, the Bengals have enough talent in the pass-catching unit to pull off a lot of upsets. Upsets that will put Chase on the map to win rookie of the year, and Burrow to win Comeback Player of the Year. 

So yeah, things look bleak for Chase. But given his history with Burrow, coupled with the sheer talent the Bengals have at receiver, he has a realistic chance to win the award. 

Conclusion

Offensive Rookie of the Year almost always goes to the quarterbacks. So if you use history as an indicator, odds are you will bet on the 5 quarterbacks listed in the first 5 sections of today’s post. But there is always a chance for an outlier, which is why we listed a few other positions. 

Najee Harris is walking into a good situation and that could put him in the running. Ditto for Kyle Pitts or Ja’Marr Chase if they help their teams overachieve. 

Who is your bet for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?

Tell us your pick in the comments and let us know if you’re looking to bet on a player not mentioned in today’s post. 

We are looking forward to reading your take.