There is a reason why UFC fighters are favored in their bouts but not all favorites are sure winners.
While betting of the odds on favorite gives you a good chance at winning a wager, not all fights turn out the way they are supposed to be. In the history of the UFC, we’ve seen too many underdogs pull off the surprise upset over the heavy favorites. These underdogs produced big payouts for the punters who took the chance.
Let’s take a look at the biggest oddsmaker upsets in the history of the UFC:
Rousey -1400, Holm +830
Ronda Rousey was on top of the women’s MMA world when she traveled to Melbourne, Australia to defend her UFC women’s bantamweight title for the seventh time. Rousey entered the fight with an unbeaten record of 12-0 with nine submission wins. She had defeated her last four challengers by 66 seconds or faster and her most previous three bouts lasted a combined 64 seconds.
Although Holly Holm was a former multiple-time world boxing champion, not many expected her to give Rousey a good challenge. Rousey was rampaging across the women’s bantamweight division and Holm was supposed to be just another footnote in Ronda’s historic run. But Holm used her veteran striking to outbox Ronda. After hurting Rousey several times in the first round, she knocked out the champ with a head kick in round 2.
St. Pierre -1300, Sera +850
Georges St. Pierre is among those considered as one of the greatest Mixed Martial Artists of all-time. The former three-time UFC welterweight champion owns the second-longest winning streak in UFC history at 2,204 days. GSP won a total of 12 title fights in the UFC and was one of the most dominant champions ever. However, his loss to Matt Sera at UFC 69 comes in at #2 in the Biggest Oddsmaker Upsets in UFC history.
St. Pierre entered this bout after defeating UFC great Matt Hughes at via second-round knockout at UFC 65 to win the UFC welterweight title. The win was GSP’s sixth in a row after losing to Hughes via submission in their first bout at UFC 50. Serra won the TUF 4 tournament and earned a title shot for that victory. Serra would go on to knock out St. Pierre in round one in what is now called the 2000s Upset of the Decade.
Barão -1100, Dillashaw +650
Renan Barao lost his first MMA fight but after that, he went on one of the longest winning streaks in the history of MMA. In nine years, Barao went undefeated in 32 straight fights, winning all but one of those. He would win his first seven UFC bouts, including four straight title fights. He entered his second defense of the undisputed UFC title as a -1100 favorite against the unproven T.J. Dillashaw.
Dillashaw was the runner-up for TUF 14 and was slowly emerging as one of the top strikers at bantamweight. He split his previous two bouts with a loss to Raphael Assuncao and a win over Mike Easton. Dillashaw would use unorthodox striking to frustrate Barao for five straight rounds before knocking out the champion in the 2014 Upset of the Year in MMA. Barao would go on to lose seven out of his last nine bouts.
Alcantara -1000, Saenz +700
Yuri Alcantara is the brother of Brazilian fighter Ildemar Alcantara and was aa part of the WEC roster that was absorbed by the UFC during the merger of the two promotions. Yuri was the first-ever Jungle Fight Lightweight champion who made his WEC debut at the promotion’s last even before its purchase by Zuffa.
Before this bout, Alcantara had won four out of his last five bouts with his only loss coming at the hands of Urijah Faber. He entered UFC Fight Night 61 as the biggest betting favorite in the entire fight card but ended up losing via decision to former King of the Cage flyweight champion and former World Fighting Federation featherweight champion Frankie Saenz. Saenz only had one UFC bout under his belt before this fight but he delivered one of the biggest oddsmaker upsets in the history of the promotion.
Smith -1000, Worthy +640
Devonte Smith was a heavy betting favorite against his former sparring partner Kharma Worthy when the two met at UFC 241. Smith was supposed to fight Clay Collard who pulled out of the fight after also stepping in for John Makdessi. Smith was slowly earning a name for himself as one of the contenders in the lightweight division with his 15-6 record.
On the other hand, Worthy was 10-2 and was a prospect after impressing the bosses at Dana White’s Contender series. Smith and Worthy trained together a couple of years earlier and the familiarity paid dividends for the heavy betting underdog. Smith was perhaps lost after his opponent was changed three times. Worth took this fight on a week’s notice and he produced one of the biggest oddsmaker upsets in UFC history at UFC 241.
Penn -900, Edgar +588
BJ Penn was one of the best fighters ever in the smaller weight classes and one of the UFC’s first superstars. The Prodigy is the second fighter to win world titles in two different weight classes. In 2010, Penn was the UFC lightweight champion and had made three straight successful defenses of the title. In his last bout, Penn knocked out Diego Sanchez to set the record for most consecutive title defenses in the lightweight division.
Frankie Edgar signed with the UFC after winning the Reality Fighting Championship lightweight title and won six out of his first seven bouts at lightweight. He was then given a title shot against Penn at UFC 112 and he stunned the world in a hard-fought stand-up battle. Edgar won via scores of 50-45, 49-46, and 48-47. He would beat Penn again in a rematch four months later.
Wineland -900, Eduardo +600
Johnny Eduardo was the former Shotoo Brazil lightweight champion. He lost his first UFC bout to Raphael Assuncao but won his next match against Jeff Curran. His next assignment was against former WEC bantamweight champion Eddie Wineland who had struggled to a 3-3 start inside the UFC octagon
This fight was in the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night 140 and it started slowly with both men trying to figure each other out. Wineland kept his hand low throughout the first round and in the final minute, Eduardo landed a counter right hand that landed on Wineland’s skull. The former WEC champ buckled and Eduardo rushed for the finish in the biggest upset of the fight card.
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