Even though they’re nearly 20 points behind the Tampa Bay Lightning in the standings, the Boston Bruins might be the Lightning’s biggest hurdle to overcome when the Stanley Cup playoffs begin next spring. We’ll get a good look at where each of these two teams stack up when they meet tonight in Tampa Bay, the third meeting between the clubs this season. Each has won a game on their home ice and the intensity has been through the roof, no doubt a carryover from last year’s playoff series won 4-1 by the Bolts. Tampa Bay looks to get back into the win column after having a seven-game winning streak snapped Saturday with a 4-3 loss in St. Louis, while the Bruins have outscored their opponents 19-5 during a four-game winning streak of their own.
It’s not often that you’ll find the Lightning available at this low of a moneyline price at home. In fact, the last time Tampa Bay was favored by -150 or less in St. Petersburg was nearly two months ago, when the Bolts doubled up the visiting Flames 6-3. And you’d have to go all the way back to Jan. 17 to find a time the Lightning lost a home game in which they were favored by this little amount, a 4-2 loss to the Maple Leafs as -140 chalk.
Boston’s a hard team to step in front of right now, which is why the oddsmakers are listing Tampa Bay this cheap. But the Bruins are playing their fourth straight road game, they’ve lost five of their last six against Tampa Bay, and the Lightning should be motivated to avenge a 4-1 loss in Boston on Feb. 28. Even though the Bruins only led that game 1-0 midway through the third period, Boston dominated the first two periods, outshooting Tampa Bay 32-9. You can be sure the Lightning wants to put in a better effort here.
The moneyline value here is clearly with Tampa Bay in my opinion, but I’m a bit nervous that this price is almost a bit too good to be true. Instead, I’m going to back the Over in this contest. Boston’s offense is smoking hot while the Lightning seems to score at least 3 goals per game these days, win or lose. The Under is 8-2-2 in the last 12 meetings, but I’m bucking the trend tonight. My pick is the Boston Bruins/Tampa Bay Lightning Over 6 at -125 odds.
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