Blake Daniels, June 16, 2022

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The Milwaukee Brewers look for the series win against the New York Mets when the teams meet on Thursday night at CitiField for Game 3 of their current set.

After getting shut out 0-4 in the series opener, the Brewers stormed back with a strong 10-run performance on Wednesday to tie the series at 1-1. Milwaukee blew the game wide open by scoring seven runs in the 5th innings while limiting the Brewers to only two runs scored

With the win, Milwaukee held on to second place in the NL Central at 35-29 on the season. The Brewers are just 1.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in a tight race in the NL Central Division. Wednesday’s win was just the second in the last 10 games played for Milwaukee. Milwaukee is 20-17 on the road this season and is 6-4 in their last 10 games as betting underdogs.

Meanwhile, the Mets fell to 41-23 on the season and with Atlanta picking up a 14th consecutive win, New York is now just four games up on the defending World Series champions. The Mets are just 6-4 in their last 10 games played and won three of four games before Wednesday’s loss to the Brewers. New York has a home record of 20-9 this year and they have a record of 27-19 as betting favorites

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers struggled to score during a stretch where they won just once during a 10-game span. But that changed on Wednesday when Milwaukee torched the New York Mets with 10 runs to even their current series at 1-1. They blew the game wide open with a 7-run fifth inning led by a two-run double from Jace Peterson which was followed by a two RBI-single from Willy Adames. Milwaukee hopes to keep the momentum going on Thursday.

Aaron Ashby will open on top of the mound for the Brewers in Game 3. The 24-year-old left-hander is 1-5 on the season with an ERA of 3.91 and a WHIP of 1.44. In a total of 50.2 innings pitched this season, he has allowed 22 earned runs on 50 hits with 62 strikeouts and 23 walks.

In his last start, Ashby lasted only 4.2 innings during an 11-5 loss to the Washington Nationals last June 10th. The lefty allowed six earned runs on 13 hits with two strikeouts and one walk. Milwaukee is 3-2 in his last five starts with losses in the last two.

New York Mets

The Mets are off to a strong start but with rival and defending champions Atlanta Braves winning 14 straight games, New York’s division lead is down to four games after Wednesday’s games. Jeff McNeil homered in the 4th inning to get the Mets on board but the Brewers responded with a huge fifth inning to pull away from the Mets. Brandon Nimmo batted 2-4 with a triple while scoring a run to help the Mets on offense.

Tylor Megill gets the start for the Mets on Thursday night. The 26-year-old right-hander from Huntington Beach, California is 4-2 with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.18 in 8 starts this season. Megill has pitched in a total of 38.2 innings and has allowed 19 earned runs on 38 hits with 41 strikeouts and 10 walks.

He allowed two earned runs on five hits in 3.1 innings pitched during a 7-3 win over the Los Angeles Angels last June 10 but did not factor in the decision. The Mets are 6-2 in Megill’s eight starts this season.

Who Wins?

The Brewers are 5-1 in their last six games against the Mets. Milwaukee is, however, 1-4 in their last five meetings in New York.

The Brewers are:

• 2-9 in their last 11 overall.
• 2-5 in their last 7 road games.
• 5-1 in their last 6 Thursday games.
• 5-2 in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
• 11-5 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 36-17 in their last 53 road games versus a right-handed starter.
• 58-28 in their last 86 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 2-5 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 2-7 in their last 9 vs. National League East.
• 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 1-4 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
• 1-4 in their last 5 versus a team with a winning record.
• 2-9 in their last 11 games on grass.
• 1-7 in their last 8 games against a right-handed starter.
• 1-7 in their last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

The Mets are:

• 12-5 in their last 17 overall.
• 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
• 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• 6-1 in their last 7 Thursday games.
• 5-1 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 14-3 in their last 17 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 21-5 in their last 26 games following a loss
• 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
• 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
• 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• 19-7 in their last 26 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 19-7 in their last 26 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 8-3 in their last 11 home games versus a team with a winning record.
• 20-8 in their last 28 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 12-5 in their last 17 games on grass.
• 50-22 in their last 72 games as a home favorite.
• 35-16 in their last 51 games as a favorite.

These teams have split the first two games of this series. The Mets shut out the Brewers in the series opener 4-0 but Milwaukee crushed New York 10-2 in Game 2.

Ashby has had his issues pitching on the road where he has an ERA of 4.34 and a WHIP of 1.58. He could have problems against a Mets team that is ranked second in the majors with a 5.11 runs per nine innings average and lead all of baseball with a batting average of .263.

Megill is coming off a start where he lasted just 3.1 innings while allowing two runs on five hits. He has an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.18 this season but that’s largely due to his awful performance two starts ago where he allowed 8 runs on 8 hits in just 1.1 innings pitched Generally, however, Megill has been a decent option and he’s better when pitching at home with an ERA of 3.86.

Offensively, the Mets are also much better than the Brewers with Pete Alonso leading the NL in RBIs and home runs. New York is in the Top 5 in many offensive categories while the Brewers are hovering in the Top 10. With New York better at both ends of the field, and the Mets looking to avenge Wednesday’s 10-2 home loss, look for the Mets to bounce back with a win here.

Prediction: New York Mets

Brewers vs Mets Over/Under trends

The total has gone under in nine out of the last 11 meetings between these two teams. The under is also 1-4 in the last five meetings in New York.

Milwaukee Brewers over/under betting trends:

• Over is 5-2 in the Brewers’ last 7 overall.
• Over is 4-1 in the Brewers’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 9-3 in the Brewers’ last 12 Game 3s of a series.
• Over is 6-2 in the Brewers’ last 8 against a team with a winning record.
• Over is 5-2 in the Brewers’ last 7 games versus National League East.
• Over is 5-2 in the Brewers’ last 7 games against a right-handed starter.
• Under is 5-2-1 in the Brewers’ last 8 games as a road underdog.
• Under is 7-3 in the Brewers’ last 10 road games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 9-4 in the Brewers’ last 13 games following a win.

New York Mets over/under betting trends:

• Over is 14-6-1 in the Mets’ last 21 overall.
• Over is 8-2 in the Mets’ last 10 home games.
• Over is 9-4-1 in the Mets’ last 14 games against a team with a winning record.
• Over is 14-6-1 in the Mets’ last 21 on grass.
• Over is 5-1 in the Mets’ last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1 in the Mets’ last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 8-2 in the Mets’ last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 7-2 in the Mets’ last 9 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 6-2 in the Mets’ last 8 games as a favorite.
• Over is 6-2 in the Mets’ last 8 games as a home favorite.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Mets’ last 5 games versus a left-handed starter.
• Over is 11-4 in the Mets’ last 15 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 8-3 in the Mets’ last 11 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 5-2 in the Mets’ last 7 games following a loss.

Megill has an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.18 in eight starts this season. Meanwhile, Ashby got blasted in his last start, throwing for 4.2 innings while giving up 6 earned runs on 13 hits with one walk and two strikeouts in a loss against the Washington Nationals. He is 1-5 with an ERA of 3.91 and a WHIP of 1.44 in seven starts and a total of 13 games pitched this season.

The Brewers are hovering around the Top 10 in the league in runs, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases, and walks. Meanwhile, the Mets are among the Top 5 teams in runs, hits, RBIs, batting average, OBP, and OPS.

Milwaukee just scored 10 runs on the Mets in Game 2 after getting shut out in the series opener. Prior to this series, they scored four or more runs in three consecutive games. The Brewers have also allowed four or more runs in four out of their last six games played. On the other hand, the Mets have scored four or more runs in four out of their last five games played. The total has also gone over 10 runs in four out of New York’s last six games played. This one should go over the posted total.

Prediction: Over 8