The Buffalo Bills continue their tour of the NFC North when they travel to Wisconsin to play the Green Bay Packers on 9/30/18.
The Josh Allen-led Bills are coming off a big 27-6 victory over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3. On the other hand, the Packers are coming off a 17-31 defeat at the hands of the Washington Redskins.
The Bills pulled off a massive upset last week when they dominated the +16.5 favorites Minnesota Vikings from start to finish. Quarterback Josh Allen shone brightly for the Bills as he completed 15 out of 22 passes for 196 yards and one touchdown pass. Allen also showed his brilliance on the ground as he was able to run for 39 yards on 10 carries with two rushing touchdowns.
On the defensive end, Buffalo shackled Pro Bowl quarterback Kirk Cousins, forcing him to an interception and three fumbles, two of which were recovered by the Bills. Minnesota was held to a total of 292 yards and seven points in the game as the Bills put up their best defensive effort of the young season.
The Bills head to Lambeau Field oozing with confidence. But things will not get easier against the Packers who are looking to rebound from a dismal outing against Washington last week. Despite the win, Buffalo is 1-17SU in their last 18 games as double digit underdogs. They are also 0-5 in their past five road games after winning their previous one away from their home field.
After an uninspiring loss to the Redskins last week, many expect the Green Bay Packers to come up with a huge bounce back game against the lowly Bills. But more than the defeat, it’s the health of quarterback Aaron Rodgers that has both fans and experts worried about the future of the Packers.
Rodgers has been dealing with a left leg injury since their opening game against the Chicago Bears. It’s suspected (not confirmed) that the Packers start QB suffered an MCL sprain against the Bears. Rodgers wore a brace on his knee and was seen limping several times last week. Despite that, the 34 year old put up a valiant effort against the Redskins as he threw for 265 yards with two touchdowns.
Aside from dealing with Rodgers’ injury, the Packers’ defense has also been subpar this season. For the second straight game, their defense was shaky, allowing 386 total yards including 166 yards on the ground. Green Bay’s defense is ranked 23rd in the league in points allowed per game at 28.0.
The Bills are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games and 7-16 SU in their last 23 games on the road. Although Green Bay is 1-4-1 SU in their last six games and 2-4-1 SU in their last 7 games at home, the Packers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the Bills in Green Bay.
The Packers haven’t really lived up to our expectations through three games. But despite their struggles, Green Bay has been solid at Lambeau Field especially against teams with losing records. In their last 35 games against such teams, the Packers are 27-7-1 SU. Although he isn’t 100%, it’s hard to bet against Aaron Rodgers when playing the Bills. We’re picking the Green Bay Packers to beat the Buffalo Bills on 9/30/18. But if you find the -450 price too steep, then you can always put your money on the other bets for this game.
The Bills are coming off a week where they won as 16.5 underdogs.They are 4-2 ATS in their last six games on the road and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games versus the Packers. Green Bay is just 1-5 ATS in their last six games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games at home. The Bills are coming off a week where they covered as 16.5 point underdogs.
It hard to imagine the Bills winning again this week. I think the Packers are going to win but I also find it hard to bet on them as a +10. Rodgers’ health is questionable, the Packers have a poor offensive line and their defense has struggled. Meanwhile, Buffalo is coming off a big win over Minnesota and should be carrying plenty of momentum. Prediction: Bills +10
The total has gone over in eight out of the last nine games for Green Bay with the total score averaging at 47.7 points per game. The over is 9-4 in the Packers last 13 games at home. The total is also 20-7 in the last 27 games that Green Bay has played in the month of September.
Both Green Bay and Buffalo defenses have their issues. Green Bay is allowing 28.0 points per game this season while the Bills are even worse by giving up 28.3 points per outing. This should be a high scoring affair with Green Bay pushing the pace despite Rodgers not being 100%. As I said previously, this should be a closer game than the oddsmakers think but points should be aplenty in this one. Prediction: Over 45.5
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