Blake Daniels, September 6, 2022

0 COMMENTS

The Buffalo Bills open their 2022 campaign by visiting the defending champions Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night in the 2022 NFL Kickoff Game.

Buffalo was seconds away from advancing to the AFC title game for the second consecutive season but allowed the Kansa City Chiefs to steal the game in overtime. Meanwhile, the Rams went all the way to Super Bowl LVI and won the Lombardi Trophy by defeating the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bills have been given a win total of 11.5 and are the +550 odds on favorite to win Super Bowl LVII. Meanwhile, the Rams have a win total of 10.5 and are a +1100 to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills enter the 2022 season as the betting favorites to win it all this season. Buffalo made some big moves during the offseason including the acquisition of defensive star Von Miller, giving the team a defensive complement to superstar QB Josh Allen who is also the odds-on favorite to win the NFL MVP award. Allen will have 9 offensive starters returning for a Buffalo offense that is expected to be one of the best in the business.

Allen’s top target will be Stefon Diggs but he will also have Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, and newly signed slot receiver Jamison Crowder. Devin Singletary and James Cook will be their top rushing options. Tight end Dawson Knox is returning after his best NFL season. Meanwhile, the 8-time pro-bowler Miller will be their new defensive cog.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams will be looking to become the 9th team in NFL history to repeat as champions. The team lost several title pieces including Miller, Andrew Whitworth to retirement, and Robert Woods to the Tennessee Titans. However, the Rams will be getting QB Matthew Stafford and Super Bowl LVI MVP Cooper Kupp back. However, Stafford is dealing with a shoulder issue.

Running back Cam Akers is also back while the team signed Chicago wide receiver Allen Robinson II to help fill the void left by Woods. Robinson will join Van Jefferson as Stafford’s key weapons. On defense superstars, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey will be back to lead the team on the other side of the field.

2021 Buffalo Bills Offense vs 2021 Los Angeles Rams Defense

2021 Los Angeles Rams Offense vs 2021 Buffalo Bills Defense

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams 2021 Stats Summary

• The Bills ranked third in the league in 3rd down conversions last season at 46.4% while the L.A. Rams defense was 22nd in third-down defense at 41.3% third down conversions allowed.
• Buffalo averaged 252.0 passing yards last season, 9th in the NFL. The Rams were 22nd in passing defense at 241. 7 yards per game allowed.
• The Buffalo offense was 5th in the league last season at 381.9 yards per game allowed. Los Angeles’ defense was 17th-best overall at 344.9 total yards conceded per game.
• Los Angeles ranked 17th in turnovers with 23 committed last season. Buffalo was third overall in forcing turnovers with a total of 30 turnovers forced.
• The Rams averaged 4.0 yards per carry last season, 23rd in the league. Buffalo’s rush defense allowed 4.2 yards per carry last season, 10th in the NFL.
• Los Angeles ranked 25th at 99.0 rushing yards per game allowed. Buffalo allowed 109.8 rushing yards per game, 13th in the NFL.
• The Rams scored on 60% of their red zone trips last season, the 15th best in the NFL. Buffalo’s defense. The Bills ranked 6th in the NFL in defending the red zone, allowing opponents to score on only 51.0% of their red zone opportunities.

Who Wins?

Buffalo is 5-2 SU in their last seven head-to-head meetings against the Los Angeles Rams. The Bills are also 3-1 SU in their last four road games against the Rams.

The Bills won 64.3% or 9 total games where they were favorites last season. Meanwhile, the Rams also won the two games where they closed as betting underdogs.

The Bills are:

• 5-1 SU in their last five games played.
• 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against the NFC West Division.
• 4-1 SU in their last five September games.

The Rams are:

• 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played.
• 4-1 SU in their last five Thursday games.
• 13-2 SU in their last 15 September games.

Matthew Stafford is expected to start for the Rams but he is suffering from elbow tendinitis and missed the entire preseason. While he is available to play in this game, the injury could affect the big passing game he is known for. Meanwhile, Josh Allen will lead one of the top offenses in the league. The Bills improved their defense by adding former Rams defensive stalwart Von Miller. That acquisition could be what turns this Buffalo team from contenders to champions this season.

It’s not every day that we get to see the defending Super Bowl champions open their title defense bid at home against the current betting favorites to win the Super Bowl. No question that this is the biggest matchup in Week 1. Between these two powerhouse teams, I’m picking the healthier team and the one who is more hungry to win it all this year.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams ATS Prediction

The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the Rams. Buffalo is also 3-0 ATS in their last five head-to-head meetings in Los Angeles.

Buffalo was favored by at least 2.5 points 14 times last season and they covered the betting spread eight times. Meanwhile, the Rams won their only game last season as underdogs by 2.5 points.

The Bills are:

• 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games as road favorites.
• 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
• 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 1.
• 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on field turf.
• 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the NFC.

The Rams are:

• 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.
• 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in September.
• 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as betting underdogs.
• 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf.
• 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against the AFC.

The Buffalo Bills have emerged as the top title contenders heading to the season. With the talent they have on both sides of the field, there is no question that Buffalo has one of the best lineups other. The question however is if they can live up to the expectations. Definitely, the law of progression says yes. However, they are facing a real test in Week 1.

The Rams are playing at home and are a +2.5 point which is tantalizing. However considering that Matthew Stafford is playing compromised, it’s hard for me to trust the Rams at this point of the season. The betting favorite has covered four times in the last five meetings between these two teams.

Prediction: Bills -2.5

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in four out of the last five head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The over is also 3-0 in their last three games played in Los Angeles.

Buffalo went over the total eight times last season while the Rams saw the total score over the betting total 9 times.

The Bills saw a total of more than 51.5 points seven times last season while the Rams played in six total games where the combined total score was more than 51.5 points.

Buffalo Bills over/under trends:

• Over is 5-2 in the Bills’ last 7 games played overall.
• Over is 4-1 in the Bills’ last 5 road games.
• Over is 9-0 in the Bills’ last 9 games as betting favorites.
• Over is 7-0 in the Bills’ last 7 games as road favorites.
• Under is 7-2 in the Bills’ last 9 games in Week 1.
• Under is 20-8 in the Bills’ last 28 games on field turf.
• Under is 7-3 in the Bills’ last 10 Thursday games.

Los Angeles Rams over/under trends:

• Over is 5-0 in the Rams’ last 5 games in September.
• Under is 4-2 in the Rams’ last six games played overall.
• Under is 20-7 in the Rams’ last 27 home games.
• Under is 4-1 in the Rams’ last 5 games on field turf.
• Under is 28-10-1 in the Rams’ last 39 games as betting favorites.
• Under is 19-7 in the Rams’ last 26 games as home underdogs.
• Under is 7-1 in the Rams’ last 8 games against the AFC East.

Both teams are good on both sides of the football field. However, when you talk about the Bills and Rams, it’s more of these teams’ offense than anything else. Josh Allen is the preseason MVP betting favorite and he will be looking to lay his claim as early as week 1.

Stafford may be playing with an injury but remember he played through it during their Super Bowl run. This is nothing new to Stafford so I expect him to be at his best form on game day. This is also his second season under Sean McVay and he should be more familiar with the system and the weapons he has. That should give him better-scoring chances here.

The Los Angeles defense may take a step back with Von Miller leaving. Meanwhile, the Bills went over the total in five out of their last seven games played last season and four out of their last five road games. Give me these teams to figure in a shootout.

Prediction: Over 52