Blake Daniels, September 22, 2022

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The Buffalo Bills visit the Miami Dolphins in an early battle between AFC East leaders. Both Buffalo and Miami are 2-0 SU on the seasons.

Buffalo dominated last season’s AFC top seed Tennessee Titans one week after blowing out the defending Super Bowl champions Los Angeles Rams. The Bills have seen their Super Bowl odds shorten even further after two weeks while Allen has become an even bigger betting MVP favorite with two strong performances.

Meanwhile, after a “silent” win over the Patriots in Week 1, the Dolphins produced one of the most scintillating comeback wins last week as they erased a three-touchdown deficit against the Baltimore Ravens. Miami is moving up the Super Bowl odds boards while Tua Tagovailoa is now third behind Allen and Patrick Mahomes on the MVP betting boards.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have defeated the Dolphins in their last seven head-to-head meetings. Josh Allen is off to a spectacular start and Stefon Diggs has 20 catches and 4 TD grabs in two games. The high-octane offense is just one side of the story. Buffalo’s defense added Von Miller during the offseason and the group is allowing just 8.5 points per game after two games played.

Allen topped 300 passing yards for the 15th time in his career last week, completing 26 of 38 passes for 317 yards and sat out the entire fourth quarter against the Titans. Diggs caught 12 passes for 148 yards and has exceeded 100 receiving yards in each of the team’s first two games played.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins head to this matchup having won their last seven games played at home and are coming off a scintillating come-from-behind win over Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. In that game, Miami trailed 35-14 entering the 4th period. Tua Tagovailoa threw four TD passes in the fourth quarter as the Fins won 42-38.

After throwing two picks in the first half, Tagovailoa finished with 469 passing yards and has six passing TDs. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle each caught 11 passes against Baltimore and two TDs while combining for 361 receiving yards in a monster game. With Buffalo cornerbacks, Dane Jackson and Tre White suffering injuries, the Dolphins’ aerial assault could get going here.

Bills vs Dolphins Betting Prediction

The Bills are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played against the Dolphins. Buffalo is also 5-2 SU in their last seven games played in Miami.

The Bills are:

• 7-1 SU in their last 8 games played overall.
• 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played on the road.
• 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played as road favorites.
• 12-1 SU in their last 13 games against the AFC East.

The Dolphins are:

• 10-1 SU in their last 11 games played overall.
• 7-0 SU in their last 7 games played at home.
• 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the AFC East.
• 6-4 SU in their last 10 home games against the AFC East.

The Bills opened their season with a statement win over the defending champions Los Angeles Rams in Week 1. The following week, they looked equally dominant in a demolition of last season’s AFC Top seed Tennessee Titans.

Josh Allen has looked every bit the MVP favorite that he is. With four TD passes against the Titan, Allen now has seven for the season. However, the Bills’ offense converted only five out of 13 third-down conversions after converting 9 of 10 against the Rams.

Meanwhile, the Bills’ defense limited the Titans to only 187 total yards last week after holding the Rams to just 10 points two weeks ago. However, injuries are a concern for Buffalo with cornerback Dane Jackson and safety Micah Hyde suffering neck injuries last Monday and linebacker Matt Milano who left the game with a stinger.

Tua Tagovailoa silenced his doubters last week when he rallied the Dolphins from a 21-point deficit entering the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens last week. Tagovailoa tossed 4 TD passes in the 4th period, including two to Tyreek Hill to seal the comeback win.

With 469 passing yards and six TD passes, Tagovailoa was an easy choice for AFC Offensive Player of the Week. On the other hand, Hill and Jaylen Waddle may be the most dangerous receiver duo in the league right now with a combined 524 receiving yards and 5 TD catches after two games played.

The Miami defense also deserves credit for preventing a late rally by Baltimore. However, they cannot afford another slow start with the Buffalo offense clicking on all cylinders right now.

Buffalo limited Tagovailoa to 205 passing yards in a 26-11 win last season. Doing it again on Sunday won’t be easy as Tua is now surrounded by much better weapons. The key to winning will be how the Buffalo defense adjusts to the injuries. With Josh Allen and the offense playing at a high level right now, the Bills should be able to offset their loss on the other end of the field.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills

Bills vs Dolphins ATS Prediction

The Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games played against the Dolphins. Buffalo is also 3-2 ATS in their last five games played in Miami.

The Bills are:

• 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
• 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
• 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC East.
• 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 3.
• 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up win.
• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
• 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
• 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.
• 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.

The Dolphins are:

• 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
• 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
• 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight-up win.
• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win.
• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
• 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
• 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East.
• 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

The Bills have won their first two games by a combined score of 72-17. These wins were against last season’s Super Bowl Winner and AFC top seed which makes both victories even more impressive.

Buffalo has beaten Miami nine times out of their last 10 games played and are 6-3-1 ATS during a stretch where they have outscored the Dolphins by an average of 14.5 points per game. Six out of those nine wins have been by double digits with no winning margin lower than six points.

But this is a different Miami team with upgraded weapons for Tua Tagovailoa. We’ve seen the difference in the first two weeks of the season.

I still think that Buffalo is the superior team on both ends of the field. With Josh Allen playing at a high level right now, I think the Bills are going to win by at least a touchdown.

Prediction: Bills -6

Bills vs Dolphins Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in 10 out of the last 14 head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The over is also 4-3 in their last seven games played in Miami.

Buffalo Bills over/under trends:

• Over is 6-3 in the Bills’ last 9 games played overall.
• Over is 13-6 in the Bills’ last 19 games played on the road.
• Over is 20-9-1 in the Bills’ last 30 games following a straight-up win.
• Over is 4-0 in the Bills’ last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Over is 4-0 in the Bills’ last 4 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.
• Over is 4-0 in the Bills’ last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 4-0 in the Bills’ last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Over is 10-1 in the Bills’ last 11 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Over is 8-1 in the Bills’ last 9 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1 in the Bills’ last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 10-2-1 in the Bills’ last 13 games on grass.
• Over is 4-1 in the Bills’ last 5 games following an ATS win.
• Over is 4-1 in the Bills’ last 5 versus the AFC.
• Over is 5-2 in the Bills’ last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Over is 5-2 in the Bills’ last 7 games in Week 3.
• Over is 7-3 in the Bills’ last 10 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Miami Dolphins Over/Under trends:

• Under is 8-4 in the Dolphins’ last 12 games played overall.
• Under is 8-3 in the Dolphins’ last 11 games against the AFC East Division.
• Under is 5-1 in the Dolphins’ last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Under is 8-3 in the Dolphins’ last 11 games following a straight-up win.
• Under is 8-3 in the Dolphins’ last 11 games in September.
• Under is 7-3 in the Dolphins’ last 10 vs. AFC.
• Over is 5-1 in the Dolphins’ last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 7-3 in the Dolphins’ last 10 games in Week 3.
• Over is 7-3 in the Dolphins’’ last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

The Dolphins have scored an average of 31 points per game after two weeks and the offense is one that believes that it can match up with Josh Allen and the Bills. Buffalo has even been more prolific at 72 total points in two games played.

These teams have combined to score an average of 49.7 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 51.33 points per game in their most recent three encounters. Given how the Buffalo offense has been so prolific and the new weapons around Tua Tagovailoa, this one should end up as a shootout, with Buffalo winning.

Prediction: Over 52.5