Blake Daniels, March 1, 2023

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The Cleveland Cavaliers hit the road and head to the TD Garden where they test the Boston Celtics.

Cleveland heads to this game after defeating the Toronto Raptors 118-93. The Cavs are 39-25 SU on the season and they are 4th in the latest Eastern Conference team standings, 6.5 games behind the current leaders Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks are also just 2 games behind no. 3 Philadelphia so they can still move up the ladder.

Boston saw its three-game winning streak end at the hands of the New York Knicks the last time out. The loss dropped Boston to second in the Eastern Conference team standings, one-half game behind the Milwaukee Bucks. The Celtics are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played.

This marks the third meeting between these two teams this season with Cleveland winning the first two.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs easily dispatched the Toronto Raptors at home in their last game played. Donovan Mitchell made 8 three-pointers and scored 35 points to lead the Cavs on Sunday. Jarrett Allen also had a double-double with 23 points and 11 rebounds as the Cavs ended a three-game losing streak against the Raptors.

Darius Garland also had a double-double with 18 points and 11 assists while Evan Mobley added 18 points and 9 rebounds for the Cavs, who led by as many as 30 points before coasting to the win, their 26th against only seven losses at home.

Boston Celtics

After their dramatic win over the Sixers over the weekend, the Boston Celtics struggled in a 109-94 loss to the New York Knicks. Last Sunday, Jayson Tatum beat the Sixers with a game-winning three-pointer with 1.3 seconds left in the game. On Monday, Tatum had a poor shooting night with 14 points on 6-18 shooting before he was ejected in the fourth quarter.

Marcus Smart added 19 points for the Celtics who missed 20 out of their first 22 three-point attempts and saw their three-game winning streak end. Jaylen Brown missed the game due to personal reasons but is expected to be back against the Cavs.

Cavaliers vs Celtics SU Prediction

The Cavaliers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played against the Celtics. Cleveland is 2-3 SU in their last 5 games played in Boston.

Cleveland Cavaliers SU trends:

• The Cavaliers are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games played.
• The Cavaliers are 13-18 SU in their last 31 games played on the road.
• The Cavaliers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games played against the Atlantic Division.
• The Cavaliers are 23-12 SU in their last 35 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Cavaliers are 7-9 SU in their last 16 road games against the Eastern Conference.
• The Cavaliers are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games played as betting underdogs.

Boston Celtics SU trends:

• The Celtics are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games played.
• The Celtics are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games played at home.
• The Celtics are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games played in March.
• The Celtics are 9-1 SU In their last 10 Wednesday games.
• The Celtics are 27-13 SU in their last 40 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Celtics are 13-6 SU in their last 19 home games against the Eastern Conference.
• The Celtics are 25-11 SU in their last 36 games played as betting favorites.

Boston will be attempting to get on board against Cleveland for the first time this season. The Celtics lost to the Cavs 123-132 on October 28 in Boston and were beaten again 114-113 in Cleveland last November 2. During their last meeting, Darius Garland posted a double-double with 29 points and 12 assists while Donovan Mitchell added 25 in that win.

Mitchell leads the Cavs in scoring at 27.2 points per game this season. He scored 35 last Sunday in a 118-93 win over the Toronto Raptors as the Cavs snapped a three-game losing streak. The game also marked the 20th time this season that the Cavs held their opponent to under 100 points, the most by any team this season.

In that game, Jarrett Allen recorded a double-double with 23 points and 11 rebounds while Garland and Evan Mobley each had 18 points.

Meanwhile, the Celtics will be looking to rebound here after losing to the New York Knicks 109-94 at Madison Square Garden. Jayson Tatum was ejected in the fourth quarter of the game after getting his second technical foul. It was the first time in his career that Tatum was tossed out of a game.

Tatum finished with only 184 points but is averaging 30.1 points per game this season. He however added 9 assists and 7 rebounds in the loss. Malcolm Brogdon led the Celtics with a season-high 22 points while Jaylen Brown missed the game due to personal reasons. Brown is expected to play on Wednesday per head coach Joe Mazzulla. JB led the Celtics with 30 in their last meeting against the Cavs.

Boston also struggled to shoot in that game, making just 2 out of their first 20 three-point attempts. They shot a season-low 21.4% or 21-42 from deep and gave up 34 free throws while taking only 14. The Celtics also saw their three-game losing streak end.

The main concern here for Boston is Jaylen Brown. If JB plays here, there’s no doubt the Celtics have the advantage. I expect Jayson Tatum to have a big bounce-back game after the disappointing performance against the Knicks. However, if Brown does not play, the Cavs have enough firepower to outgun the Celtics.

Boston is hungry to beat the Cavs for the first time this season. With Jalen Brown back, they should be able to do that.

Prediction: Boston Celtics

Cavaliers vs Celtics ATS Prediction

The Cavaliers are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Celtics. The Cavs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played in Boston.

Cleveland Cavaliers ATS trends:

• The Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
• The Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games.
• The Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win.
• The Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Atlantic Division.
• The Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games played in March.
• The Cavaliers are 19-13-3 ATS in their last 25 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Cavaliers are 6-9-1 ATS in their last 15 games played on the road against the Eastern Conference.

Boston Celtics ATS trends:

• The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
• The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Celtics are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
• The Celtics are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 Wednesday games.
• The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in March.
• The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games played on a Wednesday.
• The Celtics are 23-17 ATS in their last 40 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Celtics are 11-8 ATS in their last 19 home games played against the Eastern Conference.

The Celtics are coming off a loss so I expect them to bounce back with a big game here, especially since the Bucks have overtaken them in the East standings. Milwaukee is however just one-half game ahead so the Celtics can reclaim the lead with a win on Wednesday night.

Jayson Tatum is coming off a poor shooting effort while Jaylen Brown is also expected to return after a one-game absence. The Cavs have the Celtics’ number but Boston is just too talented to lose three in a row to any team, even the Cavs.

I expect a close game here with both teams going back and forth. However, the Celtics should be able to pull through in the end and will do so with their three-point shooting. Give me Boston to cover this spread.

Prediction: Celtics -6.5

Cleveland vs Celtics Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in 6 out of the last 10 games played between these two teams. The over is also 5-2 in their last 7 games played in Boston

Cleveland Cavaliers over/under trends:

• The over is 4-1 in the Cavaliers’ last 5 games played overall.
• The over is 4-0 in the Cavaliers’ last 4 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-0 in the Cavaliers’ last 4 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The over is 16-5 in the Cavaliers’ last 21 games versus a team with a winning % above .600.
• The over is 4-1 in the Cavaliers’ last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The under is 7-2 in the Cavaliers’ last 9 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 7-3 in the Cavaliers’ last 10 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 7-1 in the Cavaliers’ last 8 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.

Boston Celtics over/under trends:

• The over is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 games played overall.
• The over is 6-2 in the Celtics’ last 8 home games.
• The over is 19-7 in the Celtics’ last 26 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The over is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Cleveland has the lowest adjusted pace rating in the league while Boston is in the bottom half of the NBA in that statistical category. Neither team loves to push the ball up the court and both love to use up as much time on the clock before putting up a shot.

Both teams also own elite defenses with the Cavs having the second-lowest adjusted defensive rating in the league and the best scoring defense in the NBA. The Celtics are not too far behind at sixth in adjusted defensive rating and 8th in scoring defense.

These teams could end up meeting each other in the playoffs and this will be a good gauge of where they stand. I expect both teams to apply playoff-style defense in a low-scoring game.

Prediction: Under 225.5