Blake Daniels, January 12, 2023

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The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday night in the AFC’s first wild-card game. Jacksonville routed Los Angeles 38-10 when these two teams met in Week 3. However, the stakes are much larger this time around and it will be interesting to see who steps up.

Jacksonville survived a five-game losing streak during the regular season and went on to win its last five games to win the division and enter the playoffs as one of the AFC’s hottest and most dangerous teams.

The Chargers are a feared team when they are healthy. WR Keenan Allen missed their first meeting but he has been one of the reasons why they won five of seven before last week’s finale. The status of WR Mike Williams who has a back issue should be monitored. If both play on Saturday, then the Chargers are loaded.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers carried a four-game winning streak when they faced the Denver Broncos in a meaningless game last week. Denver prevailed 31-28 but despite that, the Chargers head to his contest on a roll. However, they will be facing a Jacksonville team that routed them 38-10 in Week 3.

In that game, the Chargers earned 286 yards through the air but were able to muster only 26 rushing yards on 12 carries. They also turned the ball over twice and were penalized for a total of 57 yards. Justin Herbert threw for 292 passing yards but only had one passing TD. Sony Michel led the rushing attack with a measly 22 yards.

Jacksonville Jaguars

If the Chargers are on a roll heading to Saturday, the Jaguars are red hot with five straight wins to close out their regular season campaign. That streak enabled them to win the division, earn a playoff spot, and have home-field advantage in the wild-card round. In their last game, the Jacksonville defense scored the game-winning TD on a fumble return.

In their first meeting of the season, Jacksonville produced 413 total yards. That included 262 yards through the air and 151 on the ground. The Jaguars’ defense forced two turnovers by the Chargers and complimented their surging offense. Trevor Lawrence threw three TDs and had a total of 262 passing yards.

Chargers vs Jaguars SU Predictions:

The Chargers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Jaguars. Los Angeles is also 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played in Jacksonville.

Los Angeles Chargers SU trends:

• The Chargers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Chargers are 5-4 SU in their last 9 games played on the road.
• The Chargers are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games played on a Saturday.
• The Chargers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games played against the AFC.

Jacksonville Jaguars SU trends:

• The Jaguars are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games played overall.
• The Jaguars are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played at home.
• The Jaguars are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played against the AFC.
• The Jaguars are 6-3 SU in their last 9 Saturday games.

The Chargers were pretty much healthy when they faced the Jaguars in Week 3 with only Keenan Allen the only key player hurt that time. However, with Justin Herbert nursing an injured rib, the offense struggled. Joey Bosa also did not play in that game and the Chargers surrendered 38 points to the Jaguars.

Allen is back and since his return, the Chargers won five out of seven games before the no-bearing season finale. If Mike Williams ends up playing, Herbert will have two dangerous weapons that could spell the difference in this game. If not, the Chargers still have the likes of Joshua Palmer and DeAndre Carter who have stepped up with the injuries.

Trevor Lawrence is often in the news, taking plenty of credit for the Jaguars’ renaissance. However, their defense came up big last week against the Tennessee Titans, scoring a touchdown on a fumble return to win the game.

While the Jaguars did not cover the spread in that 20-16 win that decided the division and who goes to the playoffs, it proved that the Jaguars can win big games and that they can do it with their defense. If their defense continues to deliver, Jacksonville should win this.

The Chargers cannot afford to let Lawrence loose again this time. With Bosa playing this game, he and Khalil Mack can be a menace to Lawrence. Los Angeles did not record a sack on Lawrence in Week 3, they need to do better if they want to win this game.

The Jaguars have shown that they can win games whether it’s high-scoring or low-scoring. The team also ended an 18-game road losing streak which is a huge monkey off their backs. The Jacksonville defense held the Chargers to 26 rushing yards the last time out. If they can duplicate that defensive performance, they are in good shape here.

Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars

Chargers vs Jaguars ATS Prediction

The Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Jaguars. Los Angeles is also 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Jacksonville.

Los Angeles Chargers ATS trends:

• The Chargers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Chargers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games
• The Chargers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
• The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game
• The Chargers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game
• The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Wildcard games
• The Chargers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games played against the AFC
• The Chargers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a winning record
• The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
• The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
• The Chargers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Chargers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
• The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games.
• The Chargers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.
• The Chargers are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Chargers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Saturday games.

Jacksonville Jaguars ATS trends:

• The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Jaguars are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• The Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• The Jaguars are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games played against the AFC.
• The Jaguars are 3-3 ATS in n their last 6 home games against the AFC.
• The Jaguars are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
• The Jaguars are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games played on a Saturday.
• The Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
• The Jaguars are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss
• The Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

The Jaguars shocked a lot of teams during the latter part of the season. They will carry the momentum to this game as they have won five in a row. Jacksonville also dominated the L.A. Chargers 38-10 in their only meeting this season.

Since that Week 3 matchup, the Jaguars have improved so much. Trevor Lawrence has played with plenty of motivation and with his ability to move the ball accurately and quickly, has given Travis Etienne and the running game the chance to do their thing. Jacksonville’s secondary also has threats in their secondary which could take advantage of the Chargers’ low-performing rushing attack.

I expect the Jaguars’ defense to force multiple turnovers while Trevor Lawrence will continue to run the offense well.

Prediction: Jaguars +2.5

Chargers vs Jaguars Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in 6 out of the last 7 games played between these two teams.

Los Angeles Chargers over/under trends:

• The under is 5-1 in the Chargers’ last 6 games overall.
• The under is 4-0 in the Chargers’ last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 4-0 in the Chargers’ last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 5-0 in the Chargers’ last 5 Wildcard games.
• The under is 9-1 in the Chargers’ last 10 Saturday games.
• The under is 24-9 in the Chargers’ last 33 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Chargers’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Chargers’ last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Chargers’ last 5 playoff games.
• The under is 4-1 in the Chargers’ last 5 games played against the AFC.
• The under is 4-1 in the Chargers’ last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The over is 10-3 in the Chargers’ last 13 games following a straight-up loss.
• The over is 5-1 in the Chargers’ last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The over is 5-1 in the Chargers’ last 6 games in January.

Jacksonville Jaguars over/under trends:

• The under is 6-4 in the Jaguars’ last 10 games played overall.
• The under is 11-3 in Jaguars’ last 14 home games.
• The under is 9-4 in the Jaguars’ last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 19-9 in the Jaguars’ last 28 games versus a team with a winning record.
• The under is 5-1 in Jaguars’ last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1 in Jaguars’ last 6 games in January.
• The under is 11-3 in Jaguars’ last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• The under is 6-2 in Jaguars’ last 8 games against the AFC.
• The under is 15-6 in Jaguars’ last 21 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 5-2-2 in Jaguars’ last 9 Saturday games.

These teams combined for 48 points in their Week 3 meeting but both have played with better defense since that blowout game. With so much on the line here, I expect both teams to be more competitive.

Herbert is one of the best passers in the game today, however, he will be facing a defensive unit with four players recording at least three INTs during the regular season. With a high-caliber pass defense, the Chargers will try and run the football to open things up for Herbert. But with the Chargers averaging just 89.6 rushing yards per game, not much offense will come out of it.

Lawrence has played well to close the season but considering he is turnover-prone, I expect the Jaguars to be more cautious and they will do that by letting Etienne and the running game get established. With Jacksonville slowing down the game, this one should end up coming up short of the total.

Prediction: Under 47.5