The Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies play Game 2 of their three-game set at Coors Field on Wednesday.
The Rockies defeated the Cubs 13-6 in a high-scoring opening game on Tuesday. Colorado enters this game with a record of 47-60 while Chicago is currently at 51-57. Both teams are currently in fourth place in their respective divisions and are out of playoff contention.
Chicago has thrown in the towel after trading its best players at the deadline. They have dropped back-to-back games and six out of their last seven. Meanwhile, Colorado has won three out of its last four, including Tuesday’s blowout win.
Chicago shook up its lineup at the trade deadline, giving away former franchise players Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez. The Cubs entered this series with five losses in their last six games played. Chicago ranks just 21st in the majors with an average of 4.2 runs per game scored.
The Cubs have gone 5-11 since winning their first two games after the All-Star break. With their top players traded away, Wilson Contreras is the leader in home runs with 17 and RBI with 38. However, he only has 3 hits in his last 21 at-bats and is in a terrible start. Ian Happ is batting .200 in his last seven games which is better than his .179 season average.
Alec Mills gets the nod to start on top of the mound for the Cubs in his first pitching assignments against Colorado this season. Mills has a 4-4 record with an ERA of 4.55 and a WHIP of 1.42 on the season. The Cubs have lost in each of his last three starts and Mills conceded at least four runs in two of those games. In his last start, Mills conceded four runs on nine hits in six innings as the Cubs lost to the Cincinnati Reds 7-4.
The Colorado Rockies have the 8th worst record in all of baseball. However, much of their struggles can be attributed to their road play as they have only been 13-40 away from home, which is tied with Texas for the worst home record in the league. They are however 33-20 at Coors Field where they are averaging an MLB 2nd best 5.5 runs per game scored at home. Their pitching staff also has the best ERA at home with 3.2 runs per game conceded.
This Rockies unit has not been the good scoring team of previous seasons, ranking just 18th in the league in scoring. Ryan McMahon leads the team with 55 RBI and 17 home runs. McMahon has four hits and four RBI over his last three games played.
John Gray will open for the Rockies in Game 2. Gray is 7-6 on the season with an ERA of 3.62 and a WHIP of 1.22. Colorado has been victorious in three out of his last four starts and he’s allowed just two runs each in his last three starts. In his last outing, Gray surrendered two runs on our hits in 6 ⅓ innings in a 9-4 win over the San Diego Padres
Chicago is 9-24 in their last 33 games played. The Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 games against an opponent with a losing record, 5-16 in their last 21 games against a right-handed starter, 6-20 in their last 26 games as betting underdogs, 1-4 in their last five Wednesday games, and 7-19 in their last 26 games away from Wrigley Field.
Colorado is 7-1 in their last eight games against the National League Central. They are 15-3 in their last 18 games as betting favorites, 6-2 in their last 8 Wednesday games, 8-3 in their last 11 games against an opponent with a losing record, 75-32 in their last 107 games as home favorites, and 21-8 in their last 29 games played at home.
Head to head, the Rockies have won four out of the last five meetings between these two teams.
Despite a poor overall season, the Rockies have been good at home with a 33-20 record. Meanwhile, the Cubs are just 10-29 as road underdogs on the road this season.
Alex Mills is 0-3 with an ERA of 5.93 on the road and the Cubs have dropped five out of their last six games with him as their starter. Meanwhile, the Rockies have won three out of Gray’s last four starts and those wins included victories over the Padres and Dodgers. It’s also worth noting that Gray has allowed only two runs in each of his last three starts.
I’m not expecting Gray to be great here but he should be steady enough to hold off a struggling Cubs team that has lost six out of their last seven games after recently trading away some of its key players.
Colorado should continue with their winning ways at home while Chicago will continue to struggle on the road.
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
Chicago has seen the total hit over in four out of their last five games played. The over is also 4-1-1 in their last six games as betting underdogs. However, the total has gone under in four out of the last five games of the Cubs when the total is set at 11.0 runs or higher. The under is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games against the National League West.
The total has gone under in 8 out of the Rockies’ last nine games against the National League Central. The under is also 7-1 in their last eight games as betting favorites, 6-1 in their last seven games as road favorites, 10-2 in their last 12 games when the total is set to 11 runs or higher, and 11-2 in their last 13 games played at home.
Head to head, the total has gone under in five out of the last seven meetings between these two teams.
Game 1 of this series went way more than the over with a total of 19 runs and that’s probably why this total is pretty high too. But while expect Mills to get hit hard, I don’t think it’s going to be a repeat of the opening game of this series.
As stated above, Gray has conceded only two runs each in his last three starts. Plus, Chicago was already scoring poorly on the road before trading Baez, Bryant, and Rizzo. With the Cubs having the 4th lowest scoring average on the road at 3.7 runs per game away from Wrigley, I’ll have to go with the under.
Prediction: Under 11
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