Blake Daniels, September 12, 2022

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The Chicago Cubs visit the New York Mets on Monday at Citi Field on Monday night.

Chicago is 58-82 on the season and they are 3rd in the NL Central, 24.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 games played and head to this road series with back-to-back losses.

Meanwhile, the Mets are 89-52 on the year and are in first place in the NL East division. New York is just 1.5 games up on the Cubs and they are 6-4 in their last 10 games played. The Mets head to this set after back-to-back wins over the Marlins.

These two teams have played each other four times this season and the Mets have won three of those games. Chicago is just 28-40 on the road while the Mets are 46-23 at home. The Cubs are however 57-43 as betting underdogs while the Mets are 57-49 as betting favorites this season.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are in a rebuild after trading their two best players in Rizzo and Bryant. With low expectations, the team is currently 24 games below the .500 mark and they have been playing bad baseball as of late.

Chicago is scoring an average of 4.07 runs per game this season, 23rd in the league. Ian Happ leads the team with 65 RBIs while also hitting 16 home runs. Patrick Wisdom leads the team with 22 home runs and he also has 58 RBIs this season. Meanwhile, Nico Hoerner is the team’s best hitter at .291 on the year.

Javier Assad will open on top of the mound for the Cubs. The 25-year-old right-hander has an ERA of 2.93 through 15 innings pitched this season. Assad however, was hit hard by the Reds in his last start as he conceded four runs in five innings pitched.

New York Mets

The Mets are currently in a dog fight with the defending World Series champions Atlanta Braves for the NL East. As of Sunday’s games, the Mets have a 1.5-game lead over the Braves in the division standings.

New York has scored a total of 666 runs this season, 5th most among MLB teams. They are 5th in team batting average of .259 and are second in OBP at .330. Pete Alonso has been the main man on offense as he leads the team with 109 RBIs and 33 home runs this year. Meanwhile, Jeff McNeil leads the team in batting average at .322 on the campaign.

On top of the hill for the Mets will be Chris Bassitt who is having his best year ever. Bassitt has a record of 13-7 with an ERA of 3.24. He is coming off a start against the Pirates where he allowed only one run on five hits in seven innings pitched.

Cubs vs Mets Betting Prediction

The cubs are 2-6 in their last eight games played against the Mets. Chicago is 8-3 in their last 11 games played in New York.

Chicago Cubs betting trends:

• The Cubs are 3-10 in their last 13 overall.
• The Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Cubs are 10-3 in their last 13 versus the National League East.
• The Cubs are 5-11 in their last 16 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Cubs are 18-40 in their last 58 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Cubs are 4-9 in their last 13 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Cubs are 24-65 in their last 89 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• The Cubs are 3-9 in their last 12 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 Monday games.
• The Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 games on grass.
• The Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 games against a right-handed starter.
• The Cubs are 2-9 in their last 11 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Cubs are 1-5 in their last 6 road games against a right-handed starter.
• The Cubs are 1-7 in their last 8 versus a team with a winning record.
• The Cubs are 1-7 in their last 8 road games.
• The Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

New York Mets betting trends:

• The Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
• The Mets are 36-16 in their last 52 home games.
• Mets are 7-0 in their last 7 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Mets are 8-0 in their last 8 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 against the National League Central.
• The Mets are 8-2 in their last 10 Monday games.
• The Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
• Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Mets are 22-6 in their last 28 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Mets are 29-10 in their last 39 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Mets are 39-14 in their last 53 versus a team with a losing record.
• Mets are 13-5 in their last 18 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
• Mets are 14-6 in their last 20 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Mets are 23-10 in their last 33 games versus a right-handed starter.
• The Mets are 36-16 in their last 52 home games against a team with a losing record.
• Mets are 35-16 in their last 51 home games against a right-handed starter.
• Mets are 37-17 in their last 54 Game 1s of a series.

Bassitt is having a career season and he is pitching better at home than away from it. The right-hander has an ERA of 3.24 this season which drops to 3.84 on the road. However, Bassitt has an ERA of 2.77 at home with an OBA of .224 in New York this season.

Meanwhile, Assa’s high WHIP suggests that his ERA level should return to higher levels in the coming games. He also got hammered by a weak Cincinnati lineup in his last start, allowing four earned runs in 5.1 innings pitched, in a 7-1 loss.

The Mets are in a fight for the NL East Division and a first-round playoff bye. They are the team that has more motive to win this game. Bassitt has been better at home and so have been the Mets. New York has been inconsistent as of late but they have delivered when playing at home where they are 46-23. I like the Mets to win at home.

Prediction: New York Mets

Cubs vs Mets Over/Under Prediction

The under is 6-2-1 in the last head-to-head meetings between the Cubs and Mets. The total has gone under in four out of the last five meetings between these two teams.

Chicago Cubs over/under trends:

• Under is 4-0 in the Cubs’ last 4 overall.
• Under is 4-0 in the Cubs’ last 4 on grass.
• Under is 4-0 in the Cubs’ last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 4-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 3-1-2 in the Cubs’ last 6 Game 1s of a series.
• Under is 20-8-3 in the Cubs’ last 31 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Over is 5-0-1 in the Cubs’ last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 4-1-2 in the Cubs’ last 7 versus a team with a winning record.
• Over is 4-1-2 in the Cubs’ last 7 road games.
• Over is 4-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

New York Mets over/under trends:

• Over is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 games played overall.
• Over is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 on grass.
• Over is 4-1 in the Mets’ last five games against the National League.
• Over is 21-10 in the Mets’ last 31 during game 1 of a series.
• Over is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 versus a team with a losing record.
• Over is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 4-1 in the Mets’ last 5 games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
• Under is 5-2 in the Mets’ last 7 home games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 5-2 in the Mets’ last 7 home games against a right-handed starter.

Bassitt has pitched well at home this year and he will be facing a weak lineup in the Cubs. Meanwhile, Assad got hit hard in his last outing but overall, he’s been respectable and the Mets have been inconsistent.

This game will be played in a ballpark that favors pitchers. Neither team is hitting well right now and this should be a low-scoring contest. These teams have combined to score an average of 7.3 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 5.0 runs per game in their last three games played. This one should see the total hit under.

Prediction: Under 8