The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers face off in a Monday Night Football battle between AFC West teams at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on November 18th.
The Chiefs are still on top of the AFC West Division with their 6-4 SU record. Kansas City lost to the Tennessee Titans last week despite getting 2019 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes back in action. The Chargers lost to the Raiders last week and are 4-6 on the year. A win over Kansas City on Monday night will push them to within one game of the Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs got 2019 MVP Patrick Mahomes back in Week 10 but they were unable to pull off the victory against the Tennessee Titans. Despite the loss, Mahomes looked impressive as he completed 36 out of 50 passes for 446 passing yards with three touchdowns against a Tennessee defense that ranked in the Top 10 in scoring defense.
Mahones gave the Chiefs a 29-20 lead with a 63-yeard touchdown pass to Mecole Hardman with over 11 minutes left to play in the game. However, the Chargers scored touchdowns on their next two possessions to take control of the game. The Chiefs allowed Derrick Henry to rush for 188 yards with two touchdowns.
The Chiefs are the top passing team in the NFL at 313.9 yards per game. They are 24th on the ground with an average of 90.8 rushing yards per game and they are 5th in the league in scoring at 28.4 points per game scored. Kansas City is allowing its opponents to score 23.9 points per game this season.
The Los Angeles Chargers entered week 10 fresh from an upset win over the Green Bay Packers but just when we thought they had the momentum, they played poorly and suffered a 24-26 loss to the Oakland Raiders last weekend. Their inconsistent play from week to week makes them a tough read when it comes to betting on NFL.
Phillip Rivers is less than 200 yards away from his 14th consecutive season with at least 3,000 passing yards but he is having an up and down season. After not committing a turnover in their win over the Packers, Rivers threw interceptions in the Chargers’ first two possessions and allowed the Raiders to build an early 10-point lead. With Los Angeles trailing by two points, he went 0-8 in his team’s final drive.
The Chargers rank 8th in the passing game at 270.1 yards per game and they are 26th on the ground with an average of 86.1 rushing yards per game. Los Angeles is scoring an average of 20.7 points per game while they are allowing their opponents to score 19.4 points per contest.
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in their last six games played. The Chiefs are 4-1 SU in their last five games played on the road, 14-6 SU in their last 20 games against the AFC Conference, and 11-1 SU in their last 12 games against the AFC West Division. Los Angeles is 3-6 SU in their last nine games played and 2-3 SU in five home games played this season, 6-2 in their last 8 games played in November, and 2-5 SU in their last seven games played in Week 11. Head to head, the Chiefs are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played against the Chargers.
Melvin Gordon has looked good since offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt was fired. Gordon has posted back to back games with 20 carries and has produced a total of 188 rushing yards on 4.48 yards per carry. Overall though, the Chargers haven’t produced the consistency this year.
Patrick Mahomes passed for 446 yards with three touchdowns in his first game back after suffering a dislocated kneecap. However, the Chiefs still lost to the Tennessee Titans 32-35 in their last outing. But with Mahomes looking like he hasn’t missed a beat, the Chiefs should be in good hands here.
The Chargers have been inconsistent this season. Just when you thought they had things figured out, they dropped a game against the Raiders. On the other hand, the Chiefs may have lost to the Titans last week but we saw Mahomes look like his old self in his first game back. It looks like the Chiefs are going to pick up where Mahomes left off and the wins will start coming back. I think Mahomes will torch the Chargers’ defense here and give the Chiefs the win.
PREDICTION: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played and Kansas City is 3-2 ATS in their five road games played this season. The Chargers are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games played, 1-3-1 ATS in four home games this season, and 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the AFC Conference. Head to head, the Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Chargers. Kansas City is also 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against the LA Chargers.
The Chiefs have outscored the Chargers by an average of 10.8 points per game in their last 10 meetings and 8.67 points per game in their last three head to head games. This game is played in Mexico City which is over 7,000 feet above sea level. Mahomes is 3-0 SU and ATS in three career games played in Denver, which has a comparable elevation to Mexico City so that should not be a problem.
PREDICTION: CHIEFS -4
The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played by the Chiefs. Kansas City has seen the total go over in 12 out of their last 15 games on the road. The total has gone under in six out of the last nine games played by the Chargers. The under is 6-1 in the last seven home games played by Los Angeles and 10-3 in their last 13 games against the AFC West Division. Head to head, the over is 4-2 in the last six games between the Chiefs and Chargers.
These teams have combined to score an average of 44.2 points per game in their last 10 games played and 55.33 points per game in their last three head to head meetings. Melvin Gordon just played his two best games of the season and the Chiefs have the second-worst rush defense in the league. The Chargers’ best shot to win this game is to run the football which will slow down the game. Given this plus the venue, I expect the teams to go under.
PREDICTION: UNDER 52
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