The Kansas City Chiefs host the Cincinnati Bengals in an AFC showdown at the Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri on Sunday, 10/21/18.
The Chiefs are still feeling the effects of their first loss of the season, handed to them by the New England Patriots last October 14th. Likewise, the Cincinnati Bengals are hoping to bounce back from their loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers also last weekend. Despite their losses, the Chiefs and Bengals still sit on top of the AFC West and the AFC North, respectively. But with heavy competition breathing behind their backs, both teams need to get back on the winning track this week to keep their divisional lead.
The Kansas City offense has been hard to stop all season long. While most attribute their success to quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ passing which has delivered a franchise record five straight 300 yard passing games, the Chiefs offensive success can also be attributed to the fact that they have turned the ball over just five times this season, which ties them for second best in the league.
Mahomes has completed 63.7% of his passes and has thrown for 1,865 yards with an NFL best 18 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He is coming off his worst performance to date against Tom Brady and the Patriots where the Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season. But given that the Bengals have allowed the 8th most total touchdowns in the league this season, Mahomes should be back to his gun slinging ways on Sunday.
After an impressive 2-0 start, the Cincinnati Bengals have won just half of their last four games. And considering that their last two victories have come in a shootout against a depleted Atlanta Falcons squad that could have easily gone either way and a 10 point win over the Miami Dolphins in a game where the Bengals were beneficiaries of two defensive touchdowns in the final period, some would say that the Bengals may be starting to slow down at this point of the season. Still, that doesn’t take away the fact that Cincinnati is having a very good year so far.
Andy Dalton has thrown for 1,674 yards this season with 14 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. The 8th year quarterback is completing 65.1% of his passes and is ranked fifth in the league in touchdown rate (per attempt). Dalton is also the owner of the 9th lowest sack rate among NFL quarterbacks this season and with Kansas City’s defense considered soft against the pass this season, it’s more than fair enough to expect a high scoring affair on Sunday.
The Chiefs are 9-3 SU in night games while the Bengals have won just two of their last 10 games played at night. Andy Dalton is 6-13 SU lifetime in primetime games, easily his worst in any time slot. As for Mahomes, he hasn’t played as many big games but has been so far impressive in every game he’s started in his career. Coming off arguably his worst performance yet, I’m guessing Mahomes bounces back big time and the Chief win this game outright. We’re picking the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Cincinnati Bengals on 10/21/18. Their moneyline odds of -260 isn’t at all that bad considering how good Kansas City has played all season long but if you want better value, we still have the other bets to make.
Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road. The Kansas City Chiefs are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home. Head to head, the the Chiefs are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games versus the Bengals. But Kansas City is 10-2 ATS in their last dozen night games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in October.
Kansas City’s five wins this season have come by an average margin of 9.2 points per game with three of them by double digits. The Chiefs have played two home games so far and both were by double digits with an average winning margin of 13.5 points. Since we’re expecting a bounce back performance by Patrick Mahomes, then we have good reason to believe they are going to cover the six point spread at home. Prediction: Chiefs -6
The over is 5-2 in Cincinnati’s last 7 games and also 4-1 in their last 5 games on the road. For Kansas City, the total has gone over in four out of their last 6 games but it has gone under in six out of their last seven games played at home and under in eight out of the last 10 games played between the Chiefs and Bengals. While the trends may not be that conclusive, the scoring abilities of both squads this season has been more than conclusive.
When Kansas City plays, it’s always been a high scoring affair this season. The average combined score for the Chiefs’ games this year has been at 64.5 points per game. On the other hand, Cincinnati’s games have an average total score of 55.33 this season. Defensively, the Bengals are ranked 23rd in the NFL in points per game allowed while the Chiefs are even worse in that statistical category at 27th in the league. So while nobody has stopped these two teams from scoring, both have not stopped anybody from scoring either. This is a no-brainer. Prediction: Over 58
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