The LA Clippers take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night at the Target Center. in the first play-in tournament game for the Western Conference.
Los Angeles finished the regular season with a 42-40 SU record, good for 8th in the Western Conference and a huge accomplishment considering Kawhi Leonard missed the entire 2021-22 regular season and Paul George sat out most of the campaign. The Clippers finished the season strong, going 6-4 in their last 10 games played and winning their last five games. In their final regular season game, Los Angeles blew out the OKC Thunder by 50 points, 138-88 on Sunday night.
Minnesota was one of the surprises of the season as the Timberwolves finished 7th in the Western Conference with their 46-36 SU record, missing the 6th seed and outright playoff appearance by a mere two games. The T-Wolves will not have to win one play-in tournament game on their home floor to book a ticket to the playoffs. Minnesota dropped its season finale to the Chicago Bulls 124-120 but it was a no-bearing contest.
The Clippers finished the season on a hot streak, winning their last five games played.
Los Angeles blasted the woeful OKC Thunder in their final regular season game 138-88 behind 32 points and 13 rebounds from Amir Coffey, both career-highs for the reserve guard. Luke Kennard added 20 points while Ivica Zubac had a double-double with 12 points and 11 rebounds.
Paul George sat out the game after averaging 22.6 points per game in his five games since returning from injury. PG played in only 31 regular season games while Kawhi Leonard missed the entire regular season but the Clippers still managed to put themselves in playoff position.
Los Angeles ranks 23rd in the NBA in scoring at 108.0 points per game this season. They are 21st in rebounding at 43.8 boards grabbed per contest and are 18th in passing at 23.9 assists per game. The Clippers are 11th in the league in scoring defense at 108.6 points per game allowed.
The Timberwolves struggled to close out the regular season with only four wins in their last 10 games played. Minnesota lost its season finale to the Chicago Bulls 124-120 but the game meant nothing much except heading to the postseason on a winning note. Minnesota rested stars Karl Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell.
Nathan Knight led the Wolves with 17 points and 8 rebounds while Jaylen Nowell added 15. Anthony Edwards was the biggest name that played for Minnesota and he scored 8 points in the first half then was rested in the second half along with fellow starter Jared Vanderbilt.
The Timberwolves are the highest-scoring team in the league this season at 115.9 points per game. They are 4th in the league in rebounding at 44.3 boards grabbed per contest and are 7th in passing at 25.6 assists per game. Minnesota ranks 24th in scoring defense at 113.2 points per game allowed.
The Clippers are 5-1 SU in their last six-game played. Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in their last five games played on the road, 5-0 SU in their last five games against the Western Conference, and 10-5 SU in their last 15 games against the Northwest division.
The Timberwolves are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games played. Minnesota is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played at home, 12-2 SU in their last 14 games against opponents from the Western Conference, and 9-4 SU in their last 13 games against the Pacific Division.
There’s no question that the Timberwolves were the better regular season team than the Clippers. But that’s only because the Clippers played the entire season without Kawhi Leonard and 51 games without Paul George.
Unfortunately, Kawhi is still out but then George is back and he averaged 22.6 points per game in the five regular season games since his return. With George, he doesn’t just make the Clippers better offensively but also defensively which will mean double-trouble for the Wolves.
Karl Anthony Towns is having an excellent scoring season at 24.6 points per game but the Clippers’ defense has limited him to just 15.0 PPG against Los Angeles KAT is shooting just 42% from the floor against the Clippers and with lengthy defenders like Batum, Covington, and George, it’s not going to be an easy night for Towns.
The Clippers have plenty of three-point shooters which means that the poor Minnesota defense is going to have a long night here. Make no mistake, Towns, Russell, ANT, and Beverley will not be an easy out but the Clippers just have too much experience to lose this game. Los Angeles has gone 3-1 SU against Minnesota this season and won all games where George played. Take the plus money and the Clippers to advance to the playoffs.
Prediction: LA Clippers
The Clippers are 4-7-1 ATS in their last 12 games played. Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs, 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs, 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage better than .600, 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against an opponent with a winning home record, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent with winning straight up record.
The Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last six games played. Minnesota is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games played at home, 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games played, 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as home favorites, 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight home games against an opponent with a losing road record, 1-4 ATS in their last five games as betting favorites, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on one day rest.
Head to head, the Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the Timberwolves. Los Angeles is also 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings in Minnesota.
The Clippers were an offensive juggernaut during their final five games of the season, scoring an average of 128 points per game. Meanwhile, the Wolves have been terrible on defense all season long and were even worse in their final seven games of the regular season, allowing 128 points per game.
On the other hand, the Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the league this season and their 11th ranked scoring defense should be able to hold down the NBA’s highest-scoring team this season. I think this will be a closely fought contest with the more experienced team pulling off the win behind their returning star Paul George.
Prediction: LA Clippers +3
The total has gone over in four out of the Clippers’ last five road games, with one push. The over is 4-0-2 in their last six games as underdogs, 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs, 3-0-1 in their last four road games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games against an opponent with a winning home record, and 7-1 in their last eight games against an opponent with a winning straight up record.
The total has gone over in five out of the last six games played by the Timberwolves. The over is 4-1 in their last five games played at home, 5-0 in their last five Tuesday games, 5-0 in their last five games when playing on one day rest, 4-1 in their last five games as home favorites, 6-2 in their last eight games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, and 25-9 in their last 34 games played as betting favorites.
Head to head, the total has gone over in 12 out of the last 17 meetings between these two teams. The over is also 8-1 in their last nine meetings in Minnesota.
The Clippers are in the bottom 10 in scoring and the Top 11 in scoring defense. However, the Timberwolves are the highest-scoring team in the league this season and are just 24th in scoring defense.
These teams have combined to score an average of 221.5 points per game in their last four meetings, including 226 in their most recent encounter last January 3rd at the Crypto.com Arena.
The Clippers have scored at least 120 points in seven out of their last 11 games played and have hit a total of 230 in half of their last 10 games played. Meanwhile, the Wolves have scored at least 124 points in eight out of their last 9 games played and have seen the total go over 230 in seven out of those nine games.
Sure, teams play better defense in the playoffs. But we have a Minnesota team that is the top OVER team in the NBA this season with an OVER/UNDER record of 50-32 which means that 61% of their games this season have hit the over. Meanwhile, 52% of the Clippers’ home games this season have hit the over, including 15-13 as home favorites.
The Clippers’ offense has gotten a boost with the return of Paul George who is averaging 22.6 points per game in the five games since coming back from injury. With George on board, the Clippers should be able to match Minnesota’s firepower and turn this into a high-scoring affair.
Prediction: Over 230.5
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