Blake Daniels, December 29, 2022

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The Dallas Cowboys head to the Nissan Stadium to take on the Tennessee Titans on Thursday night.

Dallas is 11-4 SU on the season and they have already secured a wild card spot. The Cowboys defeated the Philadelphia Eagles last week after watching the Jacksonville Jaguars end their four-game winning streak. Dallas is second in the NFC East behind the 13-2 SU Philadelphia Eagles.

Tennessee is just 7-8 SU on the year but that record is good enough for a tie with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the top spot in the AFC South Division. The Titans are however struggling as they have lost their last 5 games played. In their last game, the Jaguars lost to the Houston Texans 19-14.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys improved to 11-4 SU on the season after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 40-34. Dallas is still second in the NFC East Division team standings, two games behind Philadelphia. The Cowboys have already clinched a wild card spot in the playoffs.

Dak Prescott threw for 347 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT but the Eagles played without QB Jalen Hurts. Without Hurts, it was veteran Gardner Minshew who got the start and threw for 355 yards with two TDs and 2 INTs.

Minshew’s TD pass to Devonta Smith in the 4th quarter gave the Eagles the 34-27 lead but Dallas closed the game with 13 consecutive points in the final six minutes of action. Prescott threw a 7-yard TD to CeeDee Lamb while Brett Maher made two field goals to give the Cowboys the win. Lamb caught 10 passes for 120 yards with two TD grabs. Ezekiel Elliott led the team in rushing with 55 yards and one TD rush in the first half.

Dallas ranks third in the NFL in scoring at 28.9 points per game, and 8th in total offense at 366.1 yards per contest. They also rank 7th on the ground at 143.1 rushing yards per game. The Cowboys rank 6th in scoring defense at 20.2 points per game allowed.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans are currently tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars at 7-8 for first place in the AFC South Division. However, should the teams finish with identical records at the end of the regular season, the Jaguars hold the tiebreaker after beating the Titans earlier this season. The two teams, however, meet in their last games of the season.

Tennessee has been freefalling from the standings. They were 7-3 SU after 10 games played but have lost their last 5 games played. Starting QB Ryan Tannehill suffered an ankle injury and has been ruled out for the rest of the season. However, he could come back if the Titans make the playoffs.

Malik Willis got the start the last time out but the Titans lost to the Houston Texans 19-14. Derrick Henry opened the scoring with a 48-yard TD run. Willis rushed for a touchdown and finished with 99 passing yards on 14-23 passing but he was intercepted twice. Meanwhile, Henry rushed for 126 yards on 23 carries.

The Titans are 27th in the league in scoring at 17.9 points per game. They are 30th in total offense at just 294.4 yards per contest. Tennessee is, however, ranked 2nd in rush defense at 80.1 rushing yards allowed per game.

Cowboys vs Titans SU Prediction

The Cowboys are 3-4 SU in their last 7 games played against the Titans. Dallas is also 2-3 SU in their last five games played in Tennessee.

Dallas Cowboys SU trends:

• The Cowboys are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Cowboys are 3-3 SU in their last 6 games played on the road.
• The Cowboys are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played as betting favorites.
• The Cowboys are 10-1 SU in their last 11 December games played.

Tennessee Titans SU trends:

• The Titans are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Titans are 3-4 SU in their last 7 games played at home.
• The Titans are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games played against the NFC.
• The Titans are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played against the NFC East.

Dallas still trails Philadelphia in the standings despite beating the Eagles 40-34 last week as 4-point favorites. They are also behind the Minnesota Vikings in the race for the top seed in the NFC.

Right now, Dallas is positioned to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild-card round.

But still, the Cowboys have an outside shot at winning the AFC East and could still finish as the top seed in their conference. However, they will need plenty of help in the last two weeks of play to make those happen. Regardless, these could be enough motivation for them on Thursday.

After beating the Packers 27-13 as 3-point road underdogs in the Week 11 Monday Night Football game, it looked like the then 7-3 Titans would run away with the AFC South division title. But then offensive coordinator Todd Downing got arrested for DUI and they fired GM Jon Robinson after a 35-10 loss to the Eagles two weeks later.

Ryan Tannehill tried his best to stay on the field by playing hurt but in the end, the team opted for what is expected to be season-ending surgery. Rookie Malik Willis is getting the opportunity to show what he can do, but it’s clear that he has a long way to go before becoming a starter in the NFL.

For Dallas to win, they need to avoid the passing mistakes that have hounded them this season. Dak Prescott doesn’t have to be overly aggressive in this game. He has thrown 8 INTs over his last 5 games played and although they won four of those games, Prescott has to do a better job protecting the football.

Meanwhile, the Titans have been reduced to a one-trick pony without Tannehill. Unless the defense delivers a monster performance, they will have to rely on Derrick Henry and their running game to win this contest. In this game, they need to feed Henry the ball and not leave the game in the hands of the inexperienced Willis to win.

Dak Prescott will be the key to Dallas’ victory here. For as long as he protects the ball better, the Cowboys will be able to put up more points on the board than Tennessee’s running attack. The Titans are trending downhill and that should continue on Thursday night.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys vs Titans ATS Prediction

The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games played between these two teams. The road team is also 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Cowboys and Titans.

Dallas Cowboys ATS trends:

• The Cowboys are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games overall.
• The Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games
• The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game
• The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game
• The Cowboys are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in December.
• The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
• The Cowboys are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a losing record.
• The Cowboys are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
• The Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
• The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win
• The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Tennessee Titans ATS trends:

• The Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Titans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
• The Titans are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• The Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
• The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.

If Tannehill were playing, this would be a more competitive game and I would have picked Tennessee if the oddsmakers gave me plus one TD here. However, without Tannehill, their scoring will likely come from the production of their rushing attack and although Derrick Henry is very formidable, I don’t think he can outscore Dak and the Dallas passing game.

I know this is a double-digit spread but there is nothing to like about Tennessee right now. They are falling off the cliff fast while the Cowboys have been winning despite Dak’s struggles. If Prescott takes care of the ball better here, this should be a two-TD win for Dallas.

Prediction: Cowboys -10

Cowboys vs Titans Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in four out of the last 7 games played between these two teams.

Dallas Cowboys over/under trends:

• The over is 5-0 in the Cowboys’ last 5 games overall.
• The over is 5-0 in the Cowboys’ last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 5-0 in the Cowboys’ last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The over is 4-0 in the Cowboys’ last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The over is 7-0 in the Cowboys’ last 7 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 5-0 in the Cowboys’ last 5 games in December.
• The over is 4-0 in the Cowboys’ last 4 games on grass.
• The over is 5-0 in the Cowboys’ last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
• The over is 5-1 in the Cowboys’ last 6 Thursday games.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the Cowboys’ last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The over is 14-4 in the Cowboys’ last 18 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 9-4 in the Cowboys’ last 13 games in Week 17.
• The under is 11-5 in the Cowboys’ last 16 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Tennessee Titans over/under trends:

• The under is 9-3 in the Titans’ last 12 games overall.
• The under is 10-2 in the Titans’ last 12 home games.
• The under is 5-1 in the Titans’ last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game
• The under is 4-1 in the Titans’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous games.
• The under is 13-4 in the Titans’ last 17 games on grass.
• The under is 5-2 in the Titans’ last 7 games in December.
• The under is 16-5 in the Titans’ last 21 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 6-2 in the Titans’ last 8 against a team with a winning record.
• The over is 5-2 in the Titans’ last 7 Thursday games.
• The over is 4-1 in the Titans’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.

These teams have combined to score an average of 43.4 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 46.33 points per game in their most recent three encounters. I know that Tannehill’s absence will be a cause of concern for the over/under betting but this Dallas scoring machine has put up at least 34 points five times in their last eight games played, including 40 or more four times.

The Titans do not have the best secondary in the league and given Prescott’s ability and the quality of his weapons, I can envision the Cowboys scoring 30+ points on the Titans on Thursday. That said, Malik Willis won’t be as prolific as Prescott but Derrick Henry and the resort of the offense should give them double-digit scoring here. I think the total is too low, even without Tannehill.

Prediction: Over 40.5