Blake Daniels, August 29, 2022

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The Chicago Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays will open a three-game interleague series on Monday night.

Chicago lost two of three games to the Milwaukee Brewers, including a 9-7 loss in Sunday’s rubber game where they were +133 betting underdogs. The Cubs are 55-73 on the season and 3rd in the NL Central Division. It has been another disappointing season for the Cubs who are 19 games down in the division standings and are 4-6 in their last 10 games played with losses in their previous two assignments.

Toronto is third in the AL East Division and they are 9 games behind the Yankees in the Division standings. At 68-58 however, the Blue Jays currently occupy the third wild card spot in the American League and are 1.5 games up on the Baltimore Orioles and three ahead of the Minnesota Twins who are chasing them. Toronto is just 6-4 in its last 10 games played and heads to this series after getting swept by the Los Angeles Angels.

Chicago Cubs

Chicago has a Bottom 10 offense at 4.11 runs per game scored but has a decent .700 OPS. Their pitching staff is also struggling with an ERA of 4.23 while the bullpen has produced a 4.14 ERA.

Wilson Contreras has been Chicago’s best offensive player with 20 home runs and 52 RBIs.Nico Hoerner also has a good year with a 3.5 WAR and a slash line of .293/.341/.413 with 15 steals and 44 RBIs.

Javier Assad will start for the Cubs in Game 1. Assad looked good in his first MLB start, throwing for four innings and giving up four hits and zero runs against the St. Louis Cardinals. The 24-year-old tossed 34.2 innings in AAA this season, posting an ERA of 2.95 and a K: BB ratio of 37:7.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto got swept by the Los Angeles Angels 3-0 the last time out and was outscored 22-3 in three games with two shut-out losses. The Blue Jays have the 7th best scoring offense in baseball at 4.66 runs per game and they have an OPS of .750 which puts them in the Top 5. They have a middling starter ERA of 3.91 and a bullpen ERA of 3.77.

Vladimir Guerrero has smashed 26 home runs with 78 RBIs this season. Meanwhile, Alejandro Kirk has been a breakout star with a slash line of .300/.383/.440 with 12 home runs and 48 runs driven in.

Opening on top of the mound for the Blue Jays will be Jose Berrios who will be making his 26th start of the year. Berrios is 9-5 with an ERA of 5.28 in 134.2 innings pitched. Berrios pitched six innings against the Boston Red Sox last Wednesday and allowed two runs on five hits.

Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

The Cubs are 6-4 in their last 10 games played against the Blue Jays. Chicago is 2-5 in their last seven meetings in Toronto.

Chicago Cubs betting trends:

• 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
• Cubs are 7-1 in their last 8 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Cubs are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series.
• Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 games following a loss.
• Cubs are 9-4 in their last 13 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Cubs are 15-7 in their last 22 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Cubs are 5-11 in their last 16 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Cubs are 4-9 in their last 13 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Cubs are 5-12 in their last 17 interleague games versus a team with a winning record.
• Cubs are 2-5 in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning record.
• Cubs are 8-22 in their last 30 interleague games.
• Cubs are 7-21 in their last 28 interleague games versus a right-handed starter.
• Cubs are 3-9 in their last 12 against the American League East.
• Cubs are 3-9 in their last 12 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Cubs are 2-7 in their last 9 Monday games.
• Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games versus a team with a winning record.
• Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games versus a right-handed starter.
• Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 games on astroturf.
• Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Cubs are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague road games.
• Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Toronto Blue Jays betting trends:

• Blue Jays are 7-3 in their last 10 games played overall.
• Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 interleague home games versus a team with a losing record.
• Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 games against a right-handed starter.
• Blue Jays are 9-2 in their last 11 interleague home games against a right-handed starter.
• Blue Jays are 9-2 in their last 11 interleague home games.
• Blue Jays are 11-3 in their last 14 interleague games versus a team with a losing record.
• Blue Jays are 41-16 in their last 57 home games against a team with a losing record.
• Blue Jays are 9-4 in their last 13 against a team with a losing record.
• Blue Jays are 35-16 in their last 51 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Blue Jays are 15-7 in their last 22 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Blue Jays are 45-22 in their last 67 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Blue Jays are 3-7 in their last 10 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 Monday games.
• Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 home games versus a right-handed starter.
• Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 games on astroturf.
• Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 home games.
• Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Assad looked good in his debut, tossing four innings while allowing four hits and zero runs against one of baseball’s best offenses in the St. Louis Cardinals. Meanwhile, Berrios finished strong last season but hasn’t been able to carry the momentum to 2022 and has an ERA of 5.28 heading to this contest.

The Cubs’ offense looks better than what the numbers say and they are coming off a game where they put up seven runs. Meanwhile, opponents have been able to make tons of contact against Berrios this season.

Chicago has played better and has been competitive since the All-Star break. The Blue Jays have not played according to their talents and have been a good fade this season. I think the Cubs have good value here.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs

Cubs vs Blue Jays Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in four out of the last five head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The over is also 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Toronto.

Chicago Cubs over/under trends:

• Under is 5-2-1 in the Cubs’ last 8 games played overall.
• Under is 4-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 road games.
• Under is 4-0-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 interleague games.
• Under is 4-0-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 interleague games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 4-0-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 versus the American League East.
• Under is 4-0 in the Cubs’ last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 4-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 games following a loss.
• Under is 4-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 4-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 6 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 3-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 6-2 in the Cubs’ last 8 road games versus a team with a winning record.
• Under is 8-3 in the Cubs’ last 11 Game 1s of a series.
• Under is 5-2 in the Cubs’ last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 5-2-1 in the Cubs’ last 8 games against a team with a winning record.
• Under is 9-4-1 in the Cubs’ last 14 on astroturf.
• Over is 5-2 in the Cubs’ last 7 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Over is 4-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Over is 4-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 4-0 in the Cubs’ last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Toronto Blue Jays over/under trends:

• Under is 10-4 in Blue Jays’ last 14 home games.
• Under is 8-2 in Blue Jays’ last 10 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 14-4 in Blue Jays’ last 18 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 9-3 in the Blue Jays’ last 12 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 12-4 in the Blue Jays’ last 16 on astroturf.
• Under is 6-2 in the Blue Jays’ last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 5-2 in Blue Jays’ last 7 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 5-2 in Blue Jays’ last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 5-2 in Blue Jays’ last 7 interleague home games.
• Under is 7-3 in Blue Jays’ last 10 versus a team with a losing record.
• Over is 10-4 in Blue Jays’ last 14 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 20-8 in the Blue Jays’ last 28 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 6-2 in the Blue Jays’ last 8 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Over is 4-1-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 6 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Over is 7-2 in the Blue Jays’ last 9 interleague games.
• Over is 7-2 in the Blue Jays’ last 9 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 6-2 in the Blue Jays’ last 8 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Over is 10-4 in the Blue Jays’ last 14 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 20-8 in the Blue Jays’ last 28 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

These teams have combined to score an average of 8.6 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 9.67 runs per game in their most recent three encounters.

The Cubs have allowed seven or more runs four times in their last six games played while the Blue Jays allowed 22 in their last three-game series against the Cubs.

Assad is prone to giving up walks and the Cubs are not going to leave him too long in this game. That will force the 9th worst bullpen in the league to enter the game early. This is not an easy assignment for a young pitcher with Toronto ranking 4th in wRC+ at 115.

Likewise, Toronto’s problem this season has been its bullpen which has been mediocre at best in most categories this season. I expect a shaky pitching performance from both sides, leading to a high-scoring game.

Prediction: Over 9.5