Why Daily Fantasy MMA is A Lot Harder Than You Think

There’s only one thing more fun than betting on MMA fights. If you thought the answer was going to be see them live, you handed me a side-step that I wasn’t prepared for.

In all seriousness, both of those activities are great, but playing daily fantasy MMA is actually way more thrilling than both. The problem? A lot of UFC fans seem to think if they know a lot about the sport, they’re guaranteed to win money.

Unfortunately, that simply isn’t the case. In fact, daily fantasy MMA is actually one of the harder DFS games to master and there are a few reasons why:

You Can’t Be Wrong

I’ll start this list off with the most annoying aspect of daily fantasy MMA; sometimes the fighter(s) you backed won’t score a single point.

Whether it’s from a quick knockout or submission, fights can end in a hurry and if the guy/girl you chose didn’t get a few good licks in, they’re handing you a big, fat goose egg.

It’s almost as bad even when they do, as you can still end about with just a precious few fantasy points. An early knockout generates 100+ fantasy points with regularity at DraftKings, after all, while the other side of that can carry somewhere around 30-40 fantasy points or much worse.

A smaller lineup at DK specifically makes it extremely important for you to do two things every time you enter a MMA DFS tourney; nail the big knockout plays and avoid anyone who is going to be on the receiving end of those KOs.

Believe it or not, that’s a lot harder to accomplish than it sounds. And if you get it wrong just once, you are sure to watch a promising MMA squad free fall down the standings.

Upsets Happen All the Time

I know what you’re thinking. If you can’t make mistakes in big MMA DFS tournaments, then don’t. Instead of taking huge risks, just ride the favorites and streak to all that cash.

That sounds great, but a huge problem in daily fantasy MMA is that huge upsets go down all the time. You really don’t know when they’ll come or how, but they’re always something you need to be aware of.

That’s good for bettors chasing upside with underdogs in MMA betting, but bad if you’re looking for stability in MMA DFS circles.

Brock Lesnar took out Frank Mir, Ronda Rousey lost to Holly Holm and Luke Rockhold lost to Michael Bisping. These are just three UFC upset fights that stand out over the years and are prime examples as to the volatility of even the best fighters.

Not every upset comes via KO or submission, but even the most talented fighters can be taken out. Whether they’re finally meeting their match, get a little unlucky or simply run into a leveled competitor who outwits them, champions were made to lose their titles.

Upsets don’t just come at the top of the ladder, either. From top to bottom, you always need to be on high alert for that savvy veteran that pulls a big win out of nowhere or that spry up and comer who is out to prove their worth.

Across the board, MMA is a dangerous DFS game because of just how unpredictable it can be.

Anything Can Happen

The unpredictable nature of daily fantasy MMA doesn’t necessarily stop with huge upsets. It also stretches out to what takes place leading into a big MMA event and what can transpire once the fight begins.

Issues can arise from fights being cancelled or altered due to injury or missed weight cuts, for example. That can kill a fight altogether or push up a replacement fighter. Suddenly a fight you felt you had fully grasped changes on the fly and you need to decide whether to try to exploit it or not.

In the actual fight, things can change at the drop of a hat. Fighters can pull up lame with injuries, take themselves out of matches or have the fight be stopped by the referee.

The point is daily fantasy MMA is, much like the Joker in Batman, an agent of chaos:

It is often incredibly difficult to predict and even when you do have your finger on its pulse, it still flips the script with some other haywire event during the actual fight.

Constantly having to be on your toes can be exhausting for DFS and it can also play a hand in keeping you from consistently winning money even if you opt for the “safe” cash game route.

Stars Fade

A huge mistake DFS gamers make (at least initially) is relying on star power to help them build out their roster. Usually, fighters are popular because they’ve won titles, score big wins or have impressive records.

Big names don’t always make for elite fantasy outings, however, and over time even the best fighters eventually regress. Greats like Fedor, Ronda Rousey, and so many others hit the wall hard and really never recovered.

Part of the MMA DFS process is gauging which veterans can bounce back from rough patches and decide when it’s time to cut bait with the ones that won’t. Not seeing the writing on the wall in any regard is the biggest mistake though, as DFS gamers can fall prey to big names letting them down with weak performances.

This aligns with hollow statistics and weak wins, too. You can’t just go off of fighter records or win streaks. You need to make sure your data is rich with substance and that your rationale for rolling with all of your fighters is backed up by their talent, pricing value and/or a clear edge in their given matchup.

Blindly trusting fighters just because they used to be good or have racked up a few wins can send you down an ugly path of failure.

Fighter Skill Matters

That brings me to your research dealing with fighter skill. Every fighter has specific strengths and weaknesses. Some deliver big knockouts, some eye submissions, some pound away their opponents and others simply tire their opponents out.

There is a distinct difference between a big, strong fighter that can handle any brute and one that is vulnerable against quicker athletes. There is also a sharp difference between fighters that finish fights with their fists and ones that kill opponents on the ground.

Just as important is noting which fighters have the ability to win in multiple ways and which ones are especially vulnerable to specific fighting styles. Overall, these are the main skills you’ll want to consider every single time you pick a fighter in daily fantasy MMA:

• Floor game (submission offense and defense)
• Takedown ability & Takedown defense
• Striking ability & defense
• Stamina & endurance
• Speed & quickness
• KO power and KO vulnerability
• Decision success rate
• Fighting background: overall skill-set

Depending on how you’re building a specific MMA DFS roster, some of these characteristics will become more important or less crucial than others. Collectively, they all still fill a purpose in trying to find the best fighter to add to your lineup.

Not Every Fight Ends with a KO or Submission

If you’re not a big fan of MMA, you may come into the DFS scene expecting a lot of knockouts and submissions. That is certainly how you score the big points, after all.

Unfortunately, a lot of fights do not end quickly and are often quite ugly. That is due to the level of competition being fairly high and most of the fighters excelling in grappling and defense.

Fighters obviously don’t want to lose, and they train for weeks or even months to defend themselves against their opponent. They tend to know their opponent front and back, so if a guy is shooting for a floor submission and his opponent has brilliant floor defense, this could be a good time to look elsewhere for that quick win.

This can bleed into your fighter selection strategy, but if nothing else, the idea that not every fight ends with a big score means you need to be willing to take a conservative win at times.

That should mean looking at which fighter can last long and score meaningful strikes and takedowns, but also escape with the much-needed victory. It also could put the loser in play, provided they can make it through the duration of the bout and inflict a lot of damage.

Usually, in this situation, you’re going to need the projected loser to come at a very cheap price. The idea would then be to allow yourself to spend big money on the high dollar options, assuming they live up to their “favorite” status.

Just make sure you’re not solely chasing quick finishes. You certainly want them, but if they’re your only strategy, you’re going to be susceptible to your fighters being knocked out early and often.

You Need to Know the Sport

I’m sure I’ve touched on this a bit, but I’ll close with this; you’re probably not going to find much success in daily fantasy mixed martial arts if you don’t follow it.

Just like with PGA, Nascar, NHL and any other sport that isn’t ridiculously mainstream, you do not have quick, easy access to the world of MMA. In order to really have elite insight and gain an edge, you can’t just loosely follow the sport or track the biggest names.

For instance, if you had just looked at Ronda Rousey’s dominant start to her career (12-0), you probably wouldn’t have scored Holly Holm with a huge upset over her two years ago.

Had you noted the number of title defenses Rousey had endured and the clear skill-set (namely striking and kicking) advantage Holm held over Rousey, however, you could have potentially nailed that pick and held a huge edge over a GPP field.

Needless to say, you really need to live and breathe MMA to crush it in the DFS scene.

A lot of these events have giant cards that go 10-fights deep. They showcase rising talent, grizzly veterans and fighters most people have never heard of.

If you don’t force yourself to know everything you can about every fighter on the card you’re competing in, you’re selling yourself short.

Not only could you be walking into upsets you probably should have seen coming, but you’ll also be missing out on a staggering value you never knew existed.

Built right into this last point is the fact that daily fantasy MMA is pretty grueling. This is a constantly evolving landscape, and to master it (especially in GPPs) you need to be able to basically predict the future.

You don’t need lottery numbers here, but you do need to be on top of your game and see at least a couple of upsets coming. Doing your research, recognizing fighter skill-sets, locating elite value and pointing out clear mismatches should all help you make that happen.