Blake Daniels, March 17, 2023

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Two teams trying to stay in the playoff hunt meet on Friday night at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.

The Dallas Mavericks snapped a three-game losing skid by beating the San Antonio Spurs in OT. Dallas is 35-35 SU on the season and they are tied with the Minnesota Timberwolves in the team standings although the Wolves hold the 7th spot. The Mavs are just one game ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers whom they will be playing on Friday night.

The Lakers missed a chance to move up the team standings when they lost to the Houston Rockets in their most recent game. Los Angeles is now in the 9th spot and they are tied with the #10 OKC Thunder with a 34-36 SU record. The Lakers and Thunder are just one-half game of the New Orleans Pelicans and Utah Jazz who are at #11 and #12.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs were supposed to become contenders after adding Kyrie Irving. Instead, they are now fighting to stay in the play-in tournament spot. Dallas heads to L.A. coming off a win over the woeful San Antonio Spurs. But they needed OT to beat the Spurs. Now they will be traveling to Los Angeles to face an equally hungry Lakers team.

Christian Wood led Dallas with 28 points and 13 rebounds as the Mavs were without Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Markeiff Morris. Irving and Doncic are listed as questionable for this game but they are back with the team in practice. The presence o absence of Luka and Kyrie should make or break this game for Dallas.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers saw their momentum halted when they suffered a 114-110 loss to the Houston Rockets. Los Angeles rested Anthony Davis on back-to-back games and the short-handed team could not get the job done against the Rockets. That was a missed chance for the Lakers to get to the .500 mark and they would have the same record as Dallas right now.

Austin Reaves led the Lakers with 24 points and 8 assists while D’Angelo Russell added 18. Los Angeles shot just 37.8% from the field and 25% from behind the three-point arc and they trailed the Rockets wire-to-wire in that game. Anthony Davis is expected to return on Friday while LeBron James is still out.

Mavericks vs Lakers SU Prediction

The Mavericks are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Lakers. Dallas is 2-1 SU in their last three games played in Los Angeles.

Dallas Mavericks SU trends:

• The Mavericks are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games played.
• The Mavericks are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played on the road.
• The Mavericks are 26-21 SU in their last 47 games played against the Western Conference.
• The Mavericks are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games played in March.
• The Mavericks are 11-13 SU in 24 road games against the Western Conference.

Los Angeles Lakers SU trends:

• The Lakers are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games played.
• The Lakers are 18-16 SU in 34 home games played this season.
• The Lakers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played in March.
• The Lakers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 Friday games.
• The Lakers are 20-23 SU in their last 43 games played against the Western Conference.

The Lakers have won 8 out of their last 12 games played. The third game during that stretch was a 111-108 win over the Mavericks in Dallas. On Friday, they will get another crack at the Mavs, this time from the Crypto.com Arena.

That game turned out to be the last that LeBron James has played so far this year. James scored 26 points and grabbed 8 rebounds before suffering a tendon injury on his right foot. LeBron remained in that game but after that, he has been out of action.

Los Angeles is 5-4 SU in the 9 games that LeBron James has missed. Before Thursday’s games, the Lakers were in 9th place in the Western Conference team standings with a 34-36 record. They had a chance to hit the .500 mark in their last game but with Anthony Davis sitting out against the game against the Rockets, the Lakers lost.

Austin Reaves led the Lakers with 24 points while D’Angelo Russell added 18. Jarred Vanderbilt had 13 points and 10 boards.

The Mavs are coming off a 137-128 win over the San Antonio Spurs the last time out. In that game, Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Tim Hardaway Jr. missed the game with injuries. Doncic and Irving participated in Thursday’s practice so there’s a chance that they will play.

Before Thursday’s games, the Mavs were at 35-35 and stood just one game ahead of the Lakers. So this is an important game for both squads. Dallas won the first two games between these two teams – a 124-115 victory in Dallas on Christmas Day and 119-115 in 2OT in Los Angeles. In the game at Crypto.com Arena, Doncic had 35 points, 14 rebounds, and 13 assists.

There’s uncertainty surrounding this match-up because Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are both listed as questionable to play. Both have missed the team’s last three games played. Meanwhile, the Lakers lost the last time out because Anthony Davis sat out the game. After all, it was a back-to-back schedule for them. But AD will be back on Friday.

If Doncic and Irving will play, that’s good news for Dallas. If not, it’s good news for the Lakers. As of this writing, there is no word yet on whether the two will play for the Mavs. Based on that, I will have to pick the Lakers here.

Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

Mavericks vs Lakers ATS Prediction

The Mavericks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games played against the Lakers. Dallas is 2-1 ATS in their last 3 games played in Los Angeles.

Dallas Mavericks ATS trends:

• The Mavericks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
• The Mavericks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
• The Mavericks are 19-39-1 ATS in their last games 59 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Mavericks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Mavericks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Mavericks are 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 games following a straight-up win.
• The Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The Mavericks are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games versus a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win.
• The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

Los Angeles Lakers ATS trends:

• The Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
• The Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Lakers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

The Mavs won the first two meetings between these two teams. But the Lakers won the most recent one with Anthony Davis scoring 30 points and grabbing 15 rebounds. AD is sure to play here and after having rested the Lakers’ last game, he should be more than ready to play this. You bet Davis wanted to play against the Rockets and he was disappointed they lost that one. He will surely want to get back and win this.

Luka and Kyrie are unsure to play so that makes this pick easier to make. Even if they do, the Lakers are still the team that has been playing better.

Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers -4.5

Mavericks vs Lakers Over/Under Prediction

The under is 5-2 in the last 7 games played between these two teams. The under is also 7-1 in their last 8 head-to-head meetings in Los Angeles.

Dallas Mavericks over/under trends:

• The under is 3-1-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 overall.
• The under is 3-0-1 in the Mavericks’ last 4 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 3-1-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 3-1-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 3-1-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 3-1-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The under is 6-2 in the Mavericks’ last 8 versus a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The over is 5-2-1 in the Mavericks’ last 8 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.

Los Angeles Lakers over/under trends:

• The under is 8-3-1 in the Lakers’ last 12 overall.
• The under is 7-1 in the Lakers’ last 8 home games.
• The under is 5-1-1 in the Lakers’ last 7 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The under is 5-1 in the Lakers’ last 6 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The under is 4-1 in the Lakers’ last 5 home games against a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The under is 8-3-1 in the Lakers’ last 12 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 8-3-1 in the Lakers’ last 12 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 7-3 in the Lakers’ last 10 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 7-3-1 in the Lakers’ last 11 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 9-4 in the Lakers’ last 13 Friday games.

The Los Angeles defense has improved since acquiring Vanderbilt and Beasley. The team has hit the 222-point total only three times in their last seven games played. The Lakers held Dallas to 108 points in their most recent meeting and the total of that game was 219 points.

Los Angeles still plays a very fast game but they have not conceded more than 114 points in their last 7 games played.

Dallas has the second-slowest pace among all NBA teams and will look to turn this game into a half-court showdown. Also, the uncertainty of their two stars or their minutes’ restrictions if ever, could play a factor in the total. Give me these teams to hit the under on Friday night.

Prediction: Under 222.5