The Kansas City Chiefs look to keep their home record perfect as the host the Denver Broncos at the Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday 10/28/18.
Both teams are coming off wins with identical 45-10 scores. Denver’s win came against the Arizona Cardinals while the Chiefs victory was earned over the Cincinnati Bengals. The Broncos and Chiefs met in week 4 at Denver with Kansas City coming up on to 29-24.
It has been a tough season for the Denver Broncos who snapped a skid last week. Denver entered last week’s game with the Cincinnati Bengals having lost four games in a row but the Broncos asserted their might and won 45-10 to hopefully get their season back on track. Prior to that game, the Broncos had not scored 30 points or more in a game this season.
Quarterback Case Keenum was mediocre in that win as he only had 161 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception for the Broncos. Keenum has struggled this season, throwing for a total of 1,848 passing yards but with only eight touchdowns and nine interceptions while fumbling the ball four times. Against the Chiefs whose quarterback is having a sensational start, Keenum has to step up if the Broncos want to have a chance here.
The Kansas City Chiefs are off to a blazing start this season with seven wins in eight games. Patrick Mahomes has dominated the league in his first season as starter as the former 10th overall pick of the 2017 NFL draft is second in the league with 2,223 passing yards and a stunning 22:5 TD:INT ratio. Mahomes 22 touchdowns through 8 games is an all-time record while his 114 passer rating ranks 5th in the NFL this season.
Mahomes was great again last week as he threw for 358 yards with 4 scores and one pick off while going 28 for 39 with his passes. Mahomes has now thrown for three or more touchdowns in five of seven games played this season. With Mahomes having a breakout year, Kansas City has scored at least 30 points in all but one of their games this season.
The Broncos are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played and 2-11 SU in their last 13 games on the road. The Chiefs are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played and are also 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played at home. Head to head, the Chiefs have won their last 5 meetings against the Broncos.
Kansas City simply has the better season and Patrick Mahomes has been nothing short of spectacular and he isn’t showing signs of slowing down yet. Mahomes threw for four touchdowns in two consecutive games, he’s passed for 300 yards in six straight games including 304 against the Broncos at Denver in Week 4.
There are simply too many holes in the Denver defense that will spell their doom in this game. The most glaring of which is their run defense which is 31st in the NFL with 146 rushing yards per game allowed. During their week 4 encounter, Kareem Hunt ran for 121 yards against the Broncos. We’re picking the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Denver Broncos on 10/28/18.
Denver is 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games played and are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games on the road. Meanwhile, Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in their last five games played and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home. Against Denver, Kansas City is 6-0 SU and ATS in their last 6 games.
To say that Kansas City has dominated Minnesota in their last six games may be an understatement . These teams last met in week 4 where the Chiefs beat the Broncos by 4 at Mile High, thus covering the 3.5 spread. Kansas City isn’t just having a great season, they are doing so by being perfect against the spread so far at 7-0. Also, four out of Kansas City’s six wins this season have been by double digits so it’s hard to argue with that. Unless proven otherwise, I will have to go with Kansas City here. Prediction: Chiefs -10
The total has gone under in 4 out of the last 6 games played by the Broncos and the total has also gone under in seven out of the last eight home games of the Chiefs. However, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Denver and Kansas City and the over is also 4-1 in their last five games played in Kansas City.
The Chiefs are scoring 37.1 points per game this season and have scored at least 38 points in five of their seven games played while Denver just torched the Arizona Cardinals with 45 points last week. Both teams combined for 50 points the last time out but with Denver’s offense clicking right now, they should score enough points to cover the total. Prediction: Over 53.5
The Chiefs’ unblemished 7-0 ATS record this season speaks for itself. But five out of the last seven games between the Broncos and Chiefs have been decided by 10 points or less so if you think that the law of averages is going to catch up with that ATS streak soon, I don’t blame you. I think Kansas City wins this game but Denver may be stubborn with the spread. Personally I will go for the over 53.5 here because both team are coming off high scoring offensive performances.
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