We all know what happened on Saturday night. WBC heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder and lineal heavyweight champion Tyson Fury fought in the biggest boxing fight of the year at the Staples Center. But instead of finding out who the “real” heavyweight champion of the world is, we ended up back in square one.
The fight ended in a split draw with one judge scoring the fight 115-111 in favor of Wilder and another judge scoring it 114-112 for Fury ( it was initially added up incorrectly as 114-110). On the other hand, the third judge had it 113-113. Of course both camps ended up claiming otherwise although it is mostly Tyson Fury’s camp who is protesting the decision. Wilder said he thought he won but didn’t argue with the draw which Fury’s camp says is proof that Wilder lost, lol. If you read the sports headlines everywhere, Tyson Fury fans are screaming robbery all over town. But while they say that their fighter “clearly dominated” the bout from start to finish, statistical proof is saying otherwise.
Let’s take a look at the Wilder vs Fury bout from the point of view of punch stats, which don’t lie.
Tyson Fury says he clearly outboxed Deontay Wilder for 12 rounds but that’s his opinion. Deontay Wilder says he should have won because he scored two knockdowns but that too, is his opinion. When we go to the punch stats, Compubox numbers will say that Tyson Fury outlanded Deontay Wilder 84-71 in total punches landed, 46-40 in total jabs landed and 38-31 in total power punches landed. Considering this was a 12 round bout, those numbers are pretty low but likewise very close and much more closer than what the Brits are arguing about.
Here is a screenshot of the Compubox punch stats for the fight, courtesy of boxingscene.com:
Let’s just focus on the total punches because we don’t need to get into detail to drive home our point. If you take a look at the punches landed per round per fighter, notice that Tyson Fury clearly outlanded Deontay Wilder in only TWO out of the 12 rounds of the fight. Fury had a big Round 3 when he landed 11 total punches as compared to Wilder’s 4. The Gypsy King also dominated Round 10, landing 10 total punches to only 1 for the Bronze Bomber.
Likewise, Deontay Wilder only won two clear rounds, if we talk about punches landed. Wilder outpunched Fury 13-7 in total punches during round nine and then out pointed the Brit 11-4 in the 12th and final round. In both rounds though, Wilder scored knockdowns and no matter how the punch stats went, the American got a 10-8 score in both rounds. Now for the other rounds.
Tyson Fury out-punched Deontay Wilder in seven out of the remaining 8 rounds. Wilder only outpointed Fury in one other round and that was in round seven which two of the three judges scored for wilder in the official scorecard. But while Fury landed more punches in those seven rounds, he outlanded Wilder by no more than two punches in each round. For any boxing judge who doesn’t have the benefit of Compubox numbers, rounds like those could have gone either way, the reason why the judges saw the fight differently. Considering Wilder threw more punches in all but one round, Tyson Fury’s perceived edge in outboxing Wilder was offset with Wilder’s aggression and of course his two knockdowns scored.
Tyson Fury landed fewer than 100 punches in 12 rounds. He was supposed to be the much better boxer but he outlanded Deontay Wilder by only a total of 13 punches in 36 minutes. Sure, you can argue that he made Wilder miss and that his defense was excellent. But when was Wilder a good boxer anyway? Wilder could not put Fury away, although it appeared he did in the 12th. However, he put Fury down on his arse twice. Which has more weight: Fury outpunching Wilder by a total of 13 punches or Wilder putting Fury down on the canvass twice? Again, the answer to this would be judgemental and would depend on what you prefer. Each of the three judges preferred differently. They did not have the luxury of taking a look at the Compubox Stats like we are doing now.
The punch stats reveal a much closer fight than what Fury’s camp are talking about. They can talk about ring generalship and all. But wasn’t Wilder the aggressor for the whole 12 rounds? He threw way more punches than Fury. Both ring generalship and aggression are intangibles that judges consider in judging a fight. Again, if we ask, which has more value, the answer would depend on preference. Again, the each judge preferred differently and the fight ended in a draw. Now where is the robbery there?
The only robbery that happened is Tyson Fury fans denying Deontay Wilder enough credit for putting their People’s Champion down on his ass twice. I’m not sure if I’ve seen a fight where a challenger dethroned a champion after landing fewer than 100 punches, outlanding his opponents by a mere 13 punches in 12 rounds and getting knocked down twice. That to me would be a travesty to the sport and a worse robbery than Wilder vs Fury ending in a draw.
Like any undecided outcome, the best way to settle the score would be to do a rematch, Based on what the fighters said after the fight, they both wanted a rematch and they were both open to doing an immediate rematch. Of course, you can’t take Anthony Joshua out of the equation for both fighters. Joshua vs Wilder was always the fight that needed to happen while Joshua vs Fury would be a huge sell in Britain as well as to the rest of the world. But if one of them fights AJ next, I’m not sure whether a rematch is going to happen. If a rematch has to happen, it has to happen next.
Both Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury do not like Anthony Joshua, perhaps not personally though. But after how easily they booked their first fight and how great the reception was to their bout, PPV numbers notwithstanding, I think they will fight again. Immediately would be perfect but I can’t discount the idea of both taking a tune-up fight in between, just so to- as Oscar De La Hoya would say it- “marinate” the rematch. Either way, I think both Wilder and Fury would prefer a rematch rather than include Joshua in the picture.
The betting lines for the rematch is already up at some betting sites. Betonline.ag currently has a tentative date for the fight: March 30, 2019 and has Tyson Fury a slight -125 favorite while Deontay Wilder as an underdog at +105. The line seems to listen to the chatter currently going on and which is saying that Tyson Fury won the fight and got robbed. That’s fair enough. But even the odds for the rematch are close. If Fury won the first fight decisively as what his fans say, then why don’t the odds for the second fight say so? The lines are close because the first fight was close and there was no clear cut winner.
As for the rematch, I think it’s going to be as close as the first one. They say styles make fights and Deontay Wilder vs Tyson Fury is a stylistic matchup. Fury is an excellent boxer who has great movement, defense and counterpunching. Deontay Wilder is speed, athleticism and brute power. Fury will want to outbox Wilder for 12 rounds while Wilder is going to try and knock out Tyson Fury. Fury will have to be more aggressive and land more punches to outbox Wilder. Wilder will have to be more accurate and land more punches as well to knock out Tyson Fury. The winner is as good as anybody’s guess. The rematch will be as close but I think there will be a winner the next time around. And there will still be one camp who will claim robbery. That would ultimately lead to a third fight, I guess.
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