The Detroit Pistons and the Boston Celtics play each other for the second straight game but in a different venue. Last saturday, these teams met in Detroit and the Celtics came out victorious 109-89. Three days later, they play again this time at Boston’s TD Garden. The loss was Detroit’s first of the season and they will be looking to get that one back on Tuesday night.
The Detroit Pistons opened the season a surprising 4-0 which was their best start since the 2008-09 NBA season. But when they faced their first true test of the season the last time out, Detroit bombed out and lost for the first time this season. And the Pistons didn’t just lose the game, they lost by a margin of 20 points. That first test were the, well Boston Celtics whom they will face for the second time in as many games.
Detroit’s early season success is directly linked to the stellar play of Blake Griffin. Griffin entered Saturday’s game averaging 33.8 points per game on 55.7% field goal shooting and a remarkable 65.2% from the three point range. Griffin missed his first seven shots against the Celtics, including four three pointers. With Jaylen Brown guarding him, Griffin finished the game with 7 points on 2-13 shooting, including 0-4 from behind the arc.
During that game, the Pistons made only 7-37 three pointers or 18.9% three point shooting. In contrast the Celtics knocked down 41.2% of their threes and made seven more than Detroit. Obviously, that-more than Griffin’s off night was the difference in the game. With Boston shooting just 33.3% from three point distance this season, the Pistons need to challenge and close out Boston’s shooters to prevent a repeat of last week’s debacle.
After an unimpressive two point win over the 1-5 New York Knicks and a surprise loss to the 2-4 Orlando Magic, the Boston Celtics have gotten their bearings back and have won two in a row against the Oklahoma City Thunder and the then-unbeaten Detroit Pistons. Now at 4-2, the Celtics are now in solo second in the Atlantic Division, behind the unbeaten Toronto Raptors.
The Celtics entered the season as the clear favorites to win the LeBron-less Eastern Conference after their impressive playoff run minus Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. Both all-stars are back this season but neither have been able to rekindle their old form yet. Irving is averaging just 14.0 points per game on 39.1% shooting while Hayward is slowly gaining back his confidence at 11.0 points per game and 42.9% field goal shooting. With their all-stars struggling, the C’s have turned to second year man Jayson Tatum to lead them in scoring at 16.7 points per game.
But while Tatum is producing the numbers, he too is shooting the ball at an anemic 41.2% from the floor. Likewise, Al Horford is missing his mark, making just 41.3% of his shots. Third year man Jaylen Brown is shooting worse, at an abysmal 33.9% from the floor. As a team, the Celtics are 28th in the NBA in field goal percentage at 41.4%. That’s the reason why they are 29th in the league in points scored per game at 101.5. What’s kept them winning though is their defense, which allows the fewest points in the league this season at 96.3 points per game. Boston is the only team in the NBA this season which is allowing fewer than 100 points per game.
The Celtics lead the all-time series between these 1990’s Eastern Conference rivals 239-135. The Celtics have won seven out of the last 10 meetings between these teams, including five out of the last six. Interestingly though, two of Detroit’s three wins in the last 10 games between these teams came at the TD Garden which makes the head to head trend interesting.
Boston is 12-2 SU in their last 14 games as at the TD Garden and are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games as the betting favorites. On the other hand, the Pistons are 3-17 SU in their last 20 games as underdogs. The Celtics are 3-3 ATS this season while the Pistons are 1-4 ATS so far.
Boston is struggling to shoot the ball right now but they’re making up for that by playing the best defense in the league right now. Although they have a one point win over the Sixers, the Pistons’ other wins were against Brooklyn, Chicago and Cleveland, teams with a combined record of 4-16. Boston is a different animal. They’ll even be better when they start hitting their shots. I don’t see an upset here. We’re picking the Boston Celtics to beat the Detroit Pistons on 10/30/18.
The Celtics are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games at home and are 9-3 AT in their last dozen games as favorites. On the other hand, the Pistons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games but are 7-13 in their last 20 games as underdogs.
Boston has won the last three meetings between these two teams by an average winning margin of 14 points and that includes the 20 point win in Detroit last October 27th. Detroit won the last meeting at the TD Garden last season but that was at a time when the Celtics were still adjusting from Gordon Hayward’s loss and when Jayson Tatum didn’t break out yet. Tatum now leads Boston in scoring at 16.3 points per game while Hayward has slowly but surely getting back in game form with 11.0 points per game.
Boston has been feast or famine though in terms of winning margin, beating the Sixers by 18, then barely got by the Knicks by two points, beat the Thunder by 6 and then maul the Pistons by 20. Still, I trust that the Celtics beat the Pistons again, also by double digits as they’ve done so in the last three games between these teams. Prediction: Celtics -8.5
The total has gone under in six out of the last seven games played by the Celtics and the under is 5-2 in the last seven games played by the Pistons.
These teams have topped 208 points just twice in their last five meetings. Boston is the NBA’s top defensive team in terms of points allowed and the Celtics are also struggling with their shots this season. Like the first game, Boston dictates the pace of this game because of superior manpower and out of the box coaching. Prediction: Under 207.5
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