Blake Daniels, May 16, 2022

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The Arizona Diamondbacks head to Dodger Stadium on Monday to open a four-game set against the Dodgers.

Arizona is 18-17 on the season and in 4th place in the National League West team standings. They are currently four games behind the Dodgers who are 21-12 and the top team in the division.

The Diamondbacks have lost back-to-back games and three out of their last four. Meanwhile, the Dodgers went 1-4 in their last five games played. These teams have played each other three times this season and the Diamondbacks currently lead the Dodgers 2-1.

The Arizona offense ranks only 24th in the majors in runs scored while the Dodgers are the top run-scoring team in baseball and have generated 50 more runs than the Diamondbacks this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona is coming off a series against the Chicago Cubs where they lost the last two games after winning the series opener. In the third game of that series, the D-Backs lost 3-2 after giving up the winning run in the 9th inning.

Daulton Varsho produced Arizona’s lone RBI on an error by Chicago. Varsho leads the team with 16 RBI and is tied with Christian Walker with six home runs. Walker also has 14 RBI on the season but is hitting only .203

The Diamondbacks will be sending Madison Bumgarner to the mound on Monday. The 32-year-old left-hander is 2-1 in seven starts with an ERA of 1.78 and a WHIP of 1.12. Bumgarner has allowed 22 hits with 9 runs including four home runs while walking 12 and striking out 20 in 30.1 innings pitched this season.

In his last start, Bumgarner conceded two runs on six hits in 6 ⅓ innings pitched during a 9-3 win over the Miami Marlins. This marks his first start against the Dodgers this season. Bumgarner faced L.A. only once last season where he gave up two runs in only four innings pitched in a losing effort. Arizona has won in each of Bumgarner’s last three starts.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are 11-5 at home this season and three of those losses came in their last series against the Philadelphia Phillies. L.A. lost the first three games of that series before salvaging the fourth one with a 5-4 win courtesy of Gavin Lux’s walk-off two-run home run.

Mookie Betts went 2-4 with a home run and two RBIs in that game for the Dodgers. Betts leads the team with seven home runs including one dinger in each of his last two outings. Justin Turner leads the Dodgers with 23 RBI while only hitting only .205. Turner has six RBI in his last four games played.

Tony Gonsolin will open the series for the Dodgers. The 28-year-old from Vacaville, CA is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.33 and a WHIP of 1.07 in seven starts this season. Gonsolin has conceded only 5 runs on 16 hits with one home run while walking 13 and fanning 23 hitters in 27.0 innings pitched this season.

Gonsolin tossed five scoreless innings while giving up only a solitary hit during an 11-1 win against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Los Angeles is 4-1 in his last five starts including his most recent two where he surrendered only one run in 10 total innings pitched. The only loss for the Dodgers during that span was against the Diamondbacks where Gonsolin gave up three runs in four innings.

Who Wins?

The Diamondbacks are 15-36 in their last 51 games played against the Dodgers. Arizona is also just 17-53 SU in their last 70 meetings in Dodger Stadium.

The Diamondbacks are also:

• 55-114 in their last 169 games played overall.
• 19-59 in their last 78 road games.
• 4-1 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 4-1 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 5-2 in their last 7 games against a right-handed starter.
• 55-114 in their last 169 games on grass.
• 33-77 in their last 110 games played against a team with a winning record.
• 18-43 in their last 61 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• 15-36 in their last 51 opening games of a series.
• 33-80 in their last 113 games following a loss.
• 21-52 in their last 73 games vs. National League West.
• 41-102 in their last 143 games as an underdog.
• 20-57 in their last 77 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 23-66 in their last 89 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 13-38 in their last 51 road games against a right-handed starter.
• 2-6 in their last 8 Monday games.
• 21-66 in their last 87 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 18-57 in their last 75 games as a road underdog.
• 19-46 in their last 55 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 1-7 in their last 8 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 1-7 in their last 8 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

The Dodgers are also:

• 68-29 in their last 97 games played overall.
• 40-11 in their last 51 home games.
• 40-11 in their last 51 games as a home favorite.
• 17-5 in their last 22 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• 69-21 in their last 90 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 40-13 in their last 53 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 6-2 in their last 8 Monday games.
• 12-4 in their last 16 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 37-14 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• 37-14 in their last 51 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 67-26 in their last 93 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 45-18 in their last 63 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 37-15 in their last 52 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• 36-15 in their last 51 games versus a team with a winning record.
• 38-16 in their last 54 opening games of a series.
• 68-29 in their last 97 games on grass.
• 42-18 in their last 60 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
• 67-29 in their last 96 games as betting favorites.
• 36-17 in their last 53 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 159-76 in their last 235 games against an opponent from the National League West.
• 44-21 in their last 65 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 46-22 in their last 68 games after a win.
• 48-23 in their last 71 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Meanwhile, Arizona is getting good stuff from their pitchers right now. They have been impressive on the road with a 5-1 mark in their last six games away from home. The Diamondbacks are sending their ace in Bumgarner to the mound on Monday and he has been throwing some great stuff as of late. With the Dodgers hitting just .229 against left-handed pitchers, the Diamondbacks have great value here.

The Dodgers are the early season favorites to win the World Series. They are still one of the best teams in baseball, no doubt about that. However, they are struggling right now and are having a hard time defeating teams that they should be winning against. The Los Angeles pitching staff has been hammered hard as of late, as they have posted an ERA of 5.23 and a WHIP of 1.58 over their last seven games with opposing hitters having a .291 batting average during that stretch.

L.A. was almost swept in their last series and their offense has produced only eight runs in their last two games played. Gonoslin has pitched well in his last two games, allowing only one run but one stat before that, he surrendered three runs in a short four-inning stint against Arizona. I think Gosolin will pitch a good game here but Bumgarner will outduel him on Monday.

Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks +209

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Over/Under Betting

The total has gone under in four out of the last four head-to-head meetings between these two teams. However, the over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles.

Arizona Diamondbacks over/under trends:

• Over is 4-0 in the Diamondbacks’ last 4 road games.
• Over is 6-0 in the Diamondbacks’ last 6 games as the betting underdog.
• Over is 4-0 in the Diamondbacks’ last 4 games as the road underdog.
• Over is 4-0 in the Diamondbacks’ last 4 games against an opposing starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Under is 6-0 in the Diamondbacks’ last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 9-1-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 11 games against an opponent from National League West.
• Over is 6-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 7 road games versus a right-handed starter.
• Over is 6-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 7-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 9 games played overall.
• Under is 4-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 5 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 5 games opposite a right-handed starter.
• Under is 11-3 in the Diamondbacks’ last 14 games after a loss.
• Under is 7-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 9 games played on grass.
• Under is 5-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Los Angeles Dodgers over/under trends:

• Over is 3-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last 4 games played overall.
• Over is 4-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 home games.
• Over is 3-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last 4 games as the betting favorites.
• Over is 4-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 games as the home betting favorites.
• Over is 3-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last 4 games played on grass.
• Over is 5-0 in the Dodgers’ last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 5-1 in the Dodgers’ last 6 home games against an opponent with a winning record.
• Over is 4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 6-2 in the Dodgers’ last 8 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 19-7 in the Dodgers’ last 26 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Under is 2-0-2 in the Dodgers’ last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 7-1 in the Dodgers’ last 8 Monday games.
• Under is 6-1-2 in the Dodgers’ last 9 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 5-1 in the Dodgers’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 games played against teams from the National League West.
• Under is 6-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 9 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 20-7-1 in the Dodgers’ last 28 games after a straight-up win.
• Under is 35-16-1 in the Dodgers’s last 52 Game 1s of a series.

The under has been the winning pick in each of the last four meetings between these two National League teams and the total has gone under in six out of the Diamondbacks’ last eight games played.

Bumgarner is coming off a fine start and has been throwing great stuff as of late. He will be facing Gonsolin who has surrendered just one run in his last two starts. No doubt that the Dodgers’ pitching staff is struggling and they conceded 33 runs against the Phillies in their previous series. However, Philly is the second-best hitting team in the majors while the Diamondbacks aren’t near their pace. I like these teams to go under the 8.5 total.

Prediction: Under 8.5