Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers 04/29/2021 MLB Odds, Preview and Pick

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers open this three-game series between first-place teams.

Los Angeles is on top of the National League West with their 16-9 record while Milwaukee is the current National League Central leader with a 14-10 mark. Both teams lost their previous series 2-1 but the Dodgers beat the Reds 8-0 in their last outing while the Brewers dropped a 2-6 contest against the Marlins in their most recent assignment.

These two teams met in last year’s postseason with the Dodgers sweeping the Brewers on their way to winning the World Series. This is the first of seven total games between these two teams this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers were able to snap their three-game losing streak with a win over the Cincinnati Reds in their last game. The defending champions will try to keep their momentum going as they open a three-game series against the Brewers. Los Angeles is 16-9 on the season and in first place in the National League West.

Trevor Bauer will open on top of the mound for the Dodgers. The Los Angeles ace is coming off an impressive outing where he allowed three runs ( two earned ) in six innings against the Padres. Despite being in his first year with the Dodgers, Bauer has thrived with an ERA of 2.53 and a dominant WHIP of 0.66. He is 3-0 this season and has pitched 32 innings. Bauer has a 2-1 record with an ERA of 2.66 against Milwaukee.

After an excellent 2020 season, Cory Seager continues to shine for the Dodgers. This season, Seager has 17 RBIs and an OPS of .826. The veteran shortstop has produced 4 RBIs in his last four games played. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will still be without slugger Cody Bellinger and bullpen mainstay Joe Kelly.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are looking to extend their lead in the National League Central. Milwaukee is playing well this season but is coming off a series where they lost two of three games against the Miami Marlins. Overall, the Brewers have won six out of their last nine games heading to this series.

Milwaukee was originally slated to open with Freddy Peralta but will give the ball to Eric Lauer who will make
his first start of the season. Lauer pitched in only 11 innings last season where he conceded 16 runs on 17 hits. The third-year lefty is familiar with the Dodgers having pitched for San Diego during his first two MLB seasons. Lauer is 5-0 with an ERA of 2.11 in seven starts against Los Angeles.

Veteran third baseman Travis Shaw has been a spark for the Brewers. Despite a subpar .647 OPS, Shaw has produced 17 RBIs although he is a career 1-5 against Bauer. The Brewers will continue to miss Christian Yelich who is their best hitter. Milwaukee will also be without Lorenzo Cain for this game.

Who Wins?

Los Angeles is 2-5 in their last seven games played. The Dodgers are 13-3 in their last 16 games against the NL Central, 45-14 in their last 59 games as road favorites, 40-13 in their last 53 games against a right-handed starter, 11-4 in their last 15 road games against an opponent with a winning record, and 42-17 in their last 59 Thursday games.

Milwaukee is 6-3 in their last nine games. The Brewers are 6-3 in their last nine games against the National League, 6-2 in their last eight games as betting underdogs, 3-8 in their last 11 Game 1s of a series, 1-7 in their last 8 Thursday games, and 2-5 in their last seven games as the home underdogs.

Trevor Bauer continues to impress as he’s allowed two or fewer runs in four consecutive starts spread across 25.2 innings of work while facing tough lineups this season including two consecutive starts against the Padres. Facing this Milwaukee team is probably his easiest assignment to date this season.

The Brewers have scored four or fewer runs in six out of their last nine games played including a total of 7 in their three-game series against Miami. I just don’t think that the Brew Crew is scoring enough runs to help the Dodgers push the total to the over. Milwaukee isn’t as dangerous when Yelich is not in their lineup.

Prediction: Dodgers -200

Over/Under Betting

The total has gone under in six out of the last seven road games played by the Dodgers. The under is 4-0 in their last four games as road favorites, 4-0 in their last four road games against an opponent with a winning record, 7-3 in their last 10 games against the NL Central, and 4-1 when allowing two or fewer runs in their previous game.

The total has gone under in 9 out of the Brewers’ last 14 games as the betting underdog. The under is 33-15-4 in their last 52 games against the National League West, 36-16-4 in their last 56 games after allowing more than five runs in their previous outing, and 10-3-1 in their last 14 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP lower than 1.15. Milwaukee has also seen the total go under in four of its last five games played on a Thursday.

Head to head, the total has gone under in seven out of the last eight games between these two teams. The under is also 4-1 in their last five meetings in Milwaukee.

I expect a pitcher’s duel in this game. As stated above, Bauer has been impressive so far this season and he is averaging 10 strikeouts per start. With Los Angeles having a reliable bullpen after their ace leaves the game, the Dodgers should put the cuffs on the Milwaukee hitters.

On the other hand, Milwaukee starter Eric Lauer has pitched well against the Dodgers in his career. In seven starts against Los Angeles, Lauer has posted an ERA of 2.11 against the Dodgers. However, he has not pitched this season and logged only a total of 11 innings in 2020.

I don’t expect Lauer to match Bauer’s performance but at least he should be able to contain the Los Angeles scoring here. Give me the under in this low-scoring game.

Prediction: Under 7.5