Errol Spence Jr. vs. Shawn Porter Betting Odds and Predictions

September 28 is going to bring us one hell of a collision. Taking place at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California, we have a battle between two welterweight belt holders. In one corner is Errol “The Truth” Spence Jr., who is currently the WBC welterweight champion, while in the other corner is Shawn “Showtime” Porter, who holds the welterweight title for the IBF. Coming into the fight, Spence Jr. is placed as the favorite at -900 odds, while Porter is the underdog with a +550 figure.

What Do the Odds Say?

As you see, Errol Spence Jr. enters the bout as the heavy favorite, which has been pretty normal as of late for the southpaw. In his latest fight against Mikey Garcia, he would be a sizeable -450 favorite, while taking another flashy figure in -300 when up against Kell Brook — and that was for the IBF welterweight championship in 2016.

For Shawn Porter, it’s been consistent showings for him as well, but as an underdog instead. In his last three fights, Porter has been listed as the dog twice. In the WBC welterweight championship in 2018, he would be a +125 underdog against Danny Garcia, and he would obviously go on to pull the upset. Porter would also be an underdog in his 2017 fight taking on Keith Thurman for the WBA welterweight championship, but he would fail to pull the upset here, instead losing by unanimous decision.

Boxer Information

An Examination: Errol Spence Jr.

Errol Spence Jr. is certainly one of the next best things, and this is due to his continuing rise up the standings when it comes to boxing all across the globe. Since Floyd Mayweather Jr. retired from the sport, it would leave a void in the welterweight division. With that being in place, most pundits have Spence as the one coming in to become the new king.

What separates Spence from the rest of his competition is the power of his punch, as well as the size of his body. He’s definitely productive as a technician, but what makes him so special is his ability to end a fight in a blink of an eye with his knockout power. With that being said, Spence hasn’t received a true test in quite some time, so it makes him a little vulnerable to a possible upset to Shawn Porter.

As far as Spence’s recent victory is concerned, that would come against Mikey Garcia, a former welterweight champion, back in March. Spence would be magnificent in that match, completely countering everything that Garcia threw his way and executing his own plan to a T. However, he’d also take a lot of heat for taking on an opponent who was competing in his very first career welterweight contest.

Before obtaining a victory against Garcia, Spence would have a bout against Carlos Ocampo last year in June. In a fight where we realized quickly that Spence was superior and Ocampo was way out of his league, it would result in a knockout that saw Ocampo out of the match before the first round was over.

However, even though Spence would put up a great showing to defend his IBF welterweight championship for a second time, he honestly didn’t do more than just deliver on expectations — he was expected to win, with a loss no where in sight. You could say the same thing about the bout against Lamont Peterson, which would be Spence’s first defense of his title last year in January. A former champion, Peterson was visibly annoyed the entire fight by Spence’s ability, and then things would eventually come to an end in round number seven.

Despite all of the leverage though, Brook would still take Spence to the distance in the fight that would take place in Sheffield, England, the town where Brook was born. Even though Brook had the home support from his fellow English, you still can’t help but to look at Spence funny for this fight. As a result, I’ll think we’ll have our guards up at least a little bit with him entering the fight against Porter. Don’t get me wrong, Spence can win, but upsets do happen quite a bit in boxing — look at the near upset that we had in the fight between Tyson Fury and Otto Wallin.

Right now in his career, Spence sits with an undefeated career, and not just that, but he’s never really been at a threat of losing a fight in his professional career. With that being said, you can look at that two different ways. Either 1. He’s that dominant of a boxer. Or 2. He hasn’t faced off against much stellar competition. Just think about it for a moment: Have we ever really seen Errol Spence Jr. be seriously tested? Have we ever truly seen him in a moment under pressure? We haven’t, that’s the thing. And that’s what worries me with Spence as we continue to progress into the future, but you have to give him his props, he’s one hell of a boxer.

He needs to achieve a victory over Porter though, because this would go ahead and set in stone that Spence is the best in the welterweight division. On top of that, it would improve the look of his resume drastically, adding a power fighter to his list of wins rather than a just a bunch of tune-up bouts.

An Examination: Shawn Porter

After the Tyson Furry vs. Otto Wallin fight, and the way most of us write off Wallin just for him to nearly pull off an upset, I’ve personally learned my lesson. I don’t know about these other sports commentators, but I have. With that being said, the odds-makers have Shawn Porter as a massive underdog, and I’m not going for it. This man is called “Showtime” for a reason, so I warn you, do not sleep on this man coming into the fight.

At 31 years old and 147 pounds, Porter has proven himself throughout his entire career that he’ll always be a tough and talented challenge for any opposition that he faces. Unlike Spence, however, Porter has taken a couple of losses on his resume. He would lose to Kell Brook, with the other loss being to Keith Thurman, but both of those fights would go the entire twelve rounds and to the scorecards, so keep that in mind.

When you compare Shawn Porter and Errol Spence Jr., it’s an incredibly obvious statement to say that Spence is the more powerful puncher, as well as the bigger boxer. Not just that, but Spence is the better overall boxer, period. However, that doesn’t mean that we should count out Porter in this fight, I think he’ll certainly provide Spence a challenge.

Back in March, Porter would take out current WBC mandatory Yordenis Ugas in his last fight for a split decision victory. In that bout, the biggest thing that would stick out would be the aggression that came from Porter. Against Ugas, he would be brilliant landing a pile of shots and his bodywork was also flashy that night as well.

Before the obtained victory against Ugas, Porter would have another solid win taking out Danny Garcia, a former WBC champion, last year in September. And not only would it be a win for Porter, but it would come in the fashion of unanimous decision. Porter would also show a lot of aggression in this fight as well, hitting shot after shot against Garcia and completely wearing his body down in the process. It was another great showing of boxing from Porter.

After Porter would take a loss to Keith Thurman back in June of 2016, he’s been smooth-sailing ever since. Not only would he grab strong victories over Danny Garcia and Yordenis Ugas, but he would also grab a TKO win against Andre Berto and he would also be victorious via unanimous decision over Adrian Granados.

Ever since the Thurman loss, Porter has been nothing but pure excellence against his competition, pulling in win after win. Yeah, sure, not literally everything has been on the side of Porter, but he’s earned multiple victories over some serious-contending welterweights. It’s been a pretty impressive showing of boxing from Porter as of late.

If you can’t tell, Porter is nothing to play around with if you’re an opponent of his, and it is a little shocking to see the odds give him such a heavy underdog status. Don’t be fooled by the numbers, Porter can fight. Don’t get me wrong, I do think Spence deserves the favorite status going into this fight, but I do think Porter has a serious chance of pulling off an upset. If he’s able to utilize his experience and can land inside against Spence, he’ll put himself in good position to steal a victory.

So, Who’s Going to Win?

Shawn Porter has magnificent footwork, moving quick and staying shifty, and he has great instincts to go along with his feet as well. One of his biggest positives is his quickness, and not just with his feet, but with his hands as well. He’s filled with so much speed that he’s able to get in a few punches before he even gets his full stance ready, but once Porter does that, that’s when he lets his punches shoot like a cannon.

Going back to his footwork though, that’s a large part of the reason why his punches are so effective. Not only does his fast feet allow him to get punches against his opponent, but they also allow to him to play good defense, such as forcing them to miss their punches. When that happens, the speed of Porter then allows him to throw shot after shot, so it’s vital that opponents don’t miss Showtime. If they do, they pay. The lethal speed is what makes up for Porter being short compared to other welterweight contenders, and why he currently holds a title.

Here’s probably what makes Porter so lethal the most though: His stamina. The same energy, speed, and stingy punches are there from Showtime in the 12th round as it is in the first. With that being said, Porter doesn’t bring much power to the table when it comes to knockouts — his last knockout win would be in 2017 against Andre Berto.

With the favorite Errol Spence Jr., you have someone who is very good on the offensive and is able to perform on that level due to his ability to keep separation from his opponent. When he has his opponent at distance and he’s in a perfect position, that’s when Spence goes ahead and lets it fly to land hits. He starts out with a single strong punch, and then what follows is a mountain of shots that takes a toll on his opponent, and that eventually leads to a power left swing to finish it off.

Out of the 25 wins that Spence has compiled in his career, 21 of them have come via knockout. To put it even more into perspective of how exactly dominant Spence is, here’s another stat for you: The unanimous-decision win that he would earn against Mikey Garcia back in March 2014 would be the first time that a bout of his would go to the judges — that would be a stretch of 11 fights, just an extraordinarily dominant level of boxing.

Porter certainly has the advantage when it comes to speed and footwork, but as far as power punches and boxing IQ is concerned, you have to give that to Spence. You’ve got to go with a knockout king here, and with that being said, Errol Spence Jr. should deliver on his favorite status and get the victory over Shawn Porter, but I don’t think it’ll come easy for Spence like most think. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this fight go the full 12 rounds with Spence on the brink of an upset. Ultimately though, Errol Spence Jr. should be your victor — I wouldn’t blame you for taking a long shot pick on Shawn Porter though, I’m personally thinking about doing it myself.

BETTING PREDICTION: Errol Spence Jr. (-900)