Errol Spence vs Danny Garcia 12/05/2020 Boxing Betting Odds and Preview

Errol Spence Jr. will defend his WBC and IBF welterweight titles against former WBC welterweight champion Danny Garcia on Saturday, December 5, 2020, at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

The bout will be Spence’s third consecutive bout on Fox Sports PPV. He defeated Mikey Garcia in March 2019 to retain his IBF belt and then annexed the WBC belt with a win over Shawn Porter in September 2019. Garcia has won back to back fights since losing to Shawn Porter in September of 2018. He last fought on January 25, 2020, when he decisioned Ivan Redkach at the Barclays Center in New York.

Errol “ The Truth” Spence

Spence is the 5th best pound for pound fighter on the planet. The 30-year old from Long Island, New York is the Ring’s no.1 ranked welterweight. Known as the Truth, Spence won three consecutive US national championships and was a member of the U.S. Olympic boxing team in 2012, where he reached the quarterfinals. He had an amateur record of 135-12

He turned pro after the Olympics and quickly established a reputation as one of the rising stars in the sport. Spence’s first world title was the IBF 147-pound belt which he won from Kell Brook in 2017. He successfully defended the belt against Lamont Peterson, Carlos Ocampo, Mikey Garcia, and Shawn Porter. He annexed the WBC belt during his win over Porter and will defend both belts on Saturday night.

Spence has an unblemished record of 26-0 with 21 knockouts. He is 5-9 ½ tall and has a reach of 72 inches while fighting out of the southpaw style. He has gone the distance in his last two title defenses, failing to knock out Mikey Garcia and Shawn Porter.

Danny “Swift” Garcia

Garcia is the former unified 140-pound champion, reigning in that division from 2012 to 2015. He is currently ranked 6th by the Ring in its welterweight rankings and seventh by the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board. He moved up to the welterweight division in 2014 and defeated Robert Garcia in 2016 to win the WBC welterweight champion.

The two-division world champion won his first 33 bouts before losing a close decision to Keith Thurman in a March 2017 title unification bout. After Thurman was stripped of the title due to inactivity, he fought Shawn Porter for the vacated belt but lost via decision. Since that loss, Garcia has won back to back fights.

Known as Swift, Garcia has a record of 36-2 with 21 knockouts. Garcia owns wins over former champions Erik Morales, Amir Khan, Zab Judah, Lucas Matthysse, Paulie Malignaggi, Nate Campbell, Kendall Holt, Mauricio Herrera, and Robert Garcia. He stands 5-8 tall with a reach of 68 ½ inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

Who Wins?

Spence likes to dictate the pace of the fight. He backs his opponents against the ropes and invites them to attack so he can read their movements and launch an aggressive counter-attack. He has very good movement that enables him to avoid big headshots and makes him an elusive target. When his foes try to pressure him, he does a good job of holding his ground until he turns the tide around.

Garcia works well behind a crisp jab. He often doubles and even triples his jab to continuously touch his opponents. He prefers to fight at a distance, moves in and out with his long strikes, and easily darts in and out to avoid damage. When he is forced to, he can also take the center of the ring and hold his own against bigger and stronger foes.

However, Garcia sometimes leaves his punches long that he doesn’t return his hand to his chin as quickly as he should. This tendency makes him vulnerable to counters which Spence is a master of. DSG’s big weapon is his left hook but he is almost predictable when he throws it because he choreographs it with a big step in.

If Spence is the same fighter before the accident, this could be a long night for Garcia. Spence is just too big, too strong, too fast, and too good for him. Garcia is one of the elites in the division but Spence is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world and he doesn’t have many weaknesses.

However, if Spence is not 100%, Garcia has the tools to take advantage of the situation. If Spence shows some ring rust or some form of hesitance, we could see an upset coming. He may not be a natural welterweight but no one has ever blown him away inside a ring. His losses have been competitive so if Spence doesn’t bring his A-game, he could be in for a surprise..

I think this will be a competitive fight early on. Garcia is smart enough to pile up the points early. However, as this fight goes longer, the advantage goes to the bigger man. Spence hits harder and sooner or later, he is going to hurt Garcia. Swift is tough as nails but he will need to go to war to win this. In the end, the size advantage will be too much. The accumulation of damage will lead to a late stoppage by Spence, possibly in the championship rounds.

Prediction: Errol Spence

Over/Under Betting

Spence has 21 knockouts in 26 wins or an 80.76 knockout ratio. On the other hand, Garcia has 21 knockouts in 36 wins or a 58.33% knockout ratio. Spence had 11 consecutive knockout wins before winning his last two fights by decision. He went 12 rounds with an undersized Mikey Garcia and then struggled to beat Shawn Porter in his most recent bout. Meanwhile, Danny Garcia has gone the distance in four out of his last seven bouts. He went 12 rounds against Ivan Redkach in his last bout.

Spence has a pretty good knockout ratio but three out of his last five bouts have gone to at least round 11. As for Garcia, four out of his last six bouts have gone the distance. I would’ve loved to pick an early stoppage for Spence but because this is his first fight since the accident, I’m not sure what form he’s in on Saturday night. I have Spence winning by stoppage in the championship rounds but it could be close. If you’re betting on Errol Spence, go with the over 10.5 rounds at a better price than the Moneyline.

Prediction: Over 10.5