Categories: AllFighting

UFC Fight Night 168 Betting Odds, Preview, and Predictions

The UFC heads to Spark Arena in New Zealand this weekend for UFC Fight Night 168: Felder vs Hooker.

This will be the third time that the UFC will hold an event in Auckland and the first since 2017 when Derrick Lewis and Mark Hunt headlined UFC Fight Night 110. A lightweight bout between Top 10 contenders Paul Felder and Dan Hooker will headline UFCFight Night 168 which is booked for February 22, 2020. In the co-main event, Australia’s Jimmy Crute takes on Michal Oleksiejczuk in a light-heavyweight tussle. Former UFC women’s strawweight title challenger Karolina Kowalkiewicz also tries to get her career back on track against the rising Yan Xiaonan of China.

Let’s preview the fights from the main card and make our picks for Saturday’s event:

Paul Felder vs Dan Hooker

Paul Felder is the 6th ranked lightweight in the UFC. The 34-year old American used to fight for Cage Fury Fighting Championships before joining the UFC in 2014. He was the CFFC lightweight champion with one successful title defense. Felder has a 9-4 octagon record and he is 17-4 with 10 knockouts and one submission win overall. The Irish Dragon stands 5-11 tall with a reach of 70 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Dan Hooker was the King In the Ring Middleweight Kickboxing Champion and WKBF X Rules Welterweight Champion and the 7th ranked lightweight in the UFC. The 30-year old from New Zealand has a record of 19-8 with 10 knockouts and 7 wins by submission. He is coming off back to back wins over James Vick and Al Iaquinta. Hooker stands 6-0 tall with a reach of 75 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

  • Moneyline Odds: Felder (+128) | Hooker (-148)
  • Odds from SportsBetting as of 02/21/20

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Felder has gained a reputation as a dynamic kickboxer. He also has an underrated clinch game that he uses to bully and sometimes finish his opponents. But while Felder has all these skills, he usually just goes with the flow rather than have a specific game plan. Hooker is a rangy guy that can keep his opponents at a distance. He has shown that he can grapple with strong wrestlers but can have trouble against powerful and quick strikers. Without the physical advantages though, Felder can’t dominate Hooker and with an active offense, the Kiwi is going to make this a war of attrition. I think this fight goes deep and Felder finds a way to submit Hooker late.

Prediction: Paul Felder

Jimmy Crute vs Michal Oleksiejczuk

Jimmy Crute is a former Hex Fight Series light heavyweight champion who first appeared in Dana White’s Contender Series season 2. The 23-year old Aussie is coming off a loss to Misha Cirkunov and is 10-1 with four knockouts and three wins by submission. He stands 6-2 tall with a reach of 74 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Michal Oleksiejczuk is a former Thunderstrike Fight League light heavyweight champion and had a 12-2 record when he was signed by the UFC in 2017. He submitted Khalil Rountree in his UFC debut but the win was overturned after he failed a drug test. Oleksiejczuk has a record of 14-3 with 10 knockouts and 1 win by submission. He stands 6-0 tall with a reach of 74 inches.

  • Moneyline Odds: Crute (+108) | Oleksiejczuk (-128)
  • Odds from SportsBetting as of 2/21/20

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Crute isn’t a world-beater and he doesn’t have standout skills but this 23-year old has plenty of room to grow and has some potential. Oleksiejczuk is an interesting prospect but he hasn’t shown enough to make me pick him. I think the Pole is going to bull rush Crute here and he will be swinging like a madman. I think this is 50-50. It’s either he will score a quick finish here or he will tire himself and get beaten. Crute has limited skill but I think that he is solid enough to withstand the early pressure and take victory here.

Prediction: Jimmy Crute

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Yan Xiaonan

Karolina Kowalkiewicz is the 14th ranked female strawweight contender in the UFC. The Polish Princess is the former KSW flyweight champion and a former UFC flyweight title challenger. Kowalkiewicz stands 5-3 tall with a reach of 64 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. She has a record of 12-5 with one knockout and two submission victories.

Yan Xiaonan fought for Road Fighting Championships and joined the UFC in 2017. She is 4-0 inside the octagon and she has an overall record of 11-1 with five knockouts. The Chinese fighter stands 5-5 tall with a reach of 63 inches while fighting as an orthodox fighter. She is coming off a UFC 238 win over Angela Hill

  • Moneyline Odds: Kowalkiewicz (+210) | Xiaonan (-250)
  • Odds from SportsBetting as of 2/21/20

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Kowalkiewicz used to belong to the level of elites back when she beat Thug Rose and challenged for the world title. However, she’s fallen on hard times and the Polish Princess has not been fighting to her potential. She’s looked flat in her recent fights and has been unable to shift to a higher gear when needed. Xiaonan isn’t as technically sound but she throws punches in bunches and applies constant pressure on her opponents. She does so for three straight rounds. I think Xiaonon overwhelms Kowalkiewicz and unless the latter find that next gear, I think she can’t stand the pressure.

Prediction: Yan Xiaonan

Ben Sosoli vs Marcos Rogerio De Lima

Ben Sosoli fought for Storm MMA and Hex Fight Series before he joined Dana White’s Contender Series season 3. He is popularly known as the fighter whom Greg Hardy illegally used an inhaler against. Soli is 7-2 with six knockouts. Combat Wombat stands 6-0 tall and has a reach of 72 inches while fighting out of the southpaw stance.

Marcos Rogerio De Lima fought for Strikeforce and was a contestant at The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3 tournament. He is 16-6 with 11 knockouts and three submission wins. Bigfoot stands 6-1 tall with a reach of 75 inches and is an orthodox fighter. De Lima was submitted by Stefan Struve in his most recent bout at UFC Fight Night 145.

  • Moneyline Odds: Sosoli (+129) | De Lima (-149)
  • Odds from SportsBetting as of 2/21/20

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De Lima’s fighting style is no secret. Brazil’s “Bigfoot” immediately rushes forward and throws big punches at his opponent, looking for the quick stoppage. It has worked at times but not always and is maybe 50-50 successful at best. Sosoli has a decent offense and has a good gas tank for a big guy. However, he doesn’t look like an elite athlete at all. De Lima may be nothing more than a gatekeeper but Sosoli doesn’t have enough skills to beat him.

Prediction: Marcos Rogerio De Lima

Brad Riddell vs Magomed Mustafaev

Brad Riddell fought for Glory of Heroes promotion before joining the UFC last year. The 28-year old from Auckland stands 5-7 tall with a reach of 71 inches and is an orthodox fighter. He has a record of 7-1 with five knockouts and is coming off a unanimous decision win over Jamie Mullarky in his octagon debut at UFC 243.

Magomed Mustafaev competed for M-1 Global and was the former winner of the Pankration Black Sea Cup. The 31-year old Dagestani stands 5-7 tall with a reach of 71 inches and is an orthodox fighter. Mustafaev has a record of 15-2 with 11 knockouts and 4 wins by submission. He is coming off a knockout win over Rafael Fiziev at UFC Fight Night 149.

  • Moneyline Odds: Riddell (+109) | Mustafaev (-129)
  • Odds from SportsBetting as of 2/21/20

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Riddell is getting a step-up in the level of competition following his physical and technical domination of Mularkey. He displayed terrific striking and counter-striking skills in that fight and he may be the better technical kickboxer than Mustafaev. However, Mustafaev’s wild style may cause Riddell to lose his timing. The Dagestani has power in his kicks and knees which can knock out Riddell. He also has good wrestling just in case Riddell outstrikes him on the feet. Riddell is unproven against quality opposition. I will have to go with Mustafaev here.

Prediction: Magomed Mustafaev

Kevin Aguilar vs Zubaira Tukhugov

Kevin Aguilar is the former Legacy Fighting Championships, featherweight king. He appeared in Dana White’s Contender Series Season 2 and joined the UFC in 2018. He has a record of 17-2 with 10 knockouts and one win via submission. The Angel of Death stands 5-7 with a reach of 73 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

Zubaira Tukhugov fought for Cage Warriors, ProFC, and Fight Nights before joining the UFC in 2014. Tukhugov is infamously known for his role in the McGregor-Khabib brawl where he was suspended for one year after he entered the cage and punched McGregor. Tukhugov is 5-8 tall with a reach of 68 inches and is an orthodox fighter. He has a record of 18-4-1 with six knockouts and a solitary submission win.

  • Moneyline Odds: Aguilar (-113) | Tukhugov (-107)
  • Odds from SportsBetting as of 2/21/20

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Aguilar is a banger with heavy hands and he is a proven bruiser at featherweight. His fights are usually bloody and he has no qualms about going toe to toe with his opponent. He leads with a nice jab and has very good combinations. Tukhugov has powerful spin kicks and haymakers. He also possesses quality wrestling and is a remarkable physical specimen. For sure, he is dangerous but he fights spastically and that causes his gas tank to fail. If Tukhugov takes this fight down, he has a shot but while he can do so for one or two instances, he can’t keep Aguilar down for 15 minutes. Tukhugov tires late and Aguilar punishes him.

Prediction: Kevin Aguilar

Blake Daniels

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