So, it looks like Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 will happen after all. Surely, I am not the only boxing fan out there with a serious case of déjà vu?
For those unaware of the meaning of that famous French phrase, it loosely translates into English as “already seen.” Well guess what? We have already seen what happens when Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao face off for 12 rounds and it doesn’t seem likely that the result this time will be any different. This might be a bolt from the blue for some, but I have to admit that I saw it coming (believe it or not).
Mayweather recently announced to the world that contract negotiations were in motion for a rematch with his Filipino arch-rival. While no exact date has been confirmed, “TBE” gleefully told reporters that it may happen as early as December. Not exactly the Christmas present most boxing fans would have wanted, but you can be certain that the Mayweather and Pacquiao homesteads will be enjoying extra happy holidays.
The first meeting between the two in May 2015 was the highest-grossing pay-per-view (PPV) bout in history. Approximately 4.4 million buyers parted with their cold, hard cash to witness what was dubbed as the Fight of the Century. Many casual fans were left disappointed, as Mayweather coasted home to a comfortable unanimous decision victory on account of his superior defense, counterpunches, and all-round finesse.
The fight that everyone wanted 7 or 8 years before was not acclaimed as a classic. Pacquiao was past his prime as was Mayweather, arguably. Given the lack of competition, little in the form of post-fight controversy, and not a great deal of marketing material, it seemed that the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao rivalry was put to rest. Yet here we are, over three years later.
In that first fight, Mayweather justified his tag as a -225 favorite. Those who saw value in backing Pacquiao at +225 would be disappointed.
Incredibly enough, many fight fans of today may have been too young to grasp the hype surrounding the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao bout in 2008/09. Mayweather was the number 1 pound-for-pound fighter on the planet, while Pacquiao was just behind him in second place. There were many who believed that the order of both fighters was the wrong way around.
Pacquiao, in his prime, was a terrifically exciting fighter. The only eight-division world champion in history, the Filipino had blasted through almost every fighter who stood in his way. In the period between 2005 and 2009, Pacquiao had made his way from super featherweight to light welterweight, beating legend after legend in the process. Marco Antonio Barrera, Erik Morales, Juan Manuel Marquez, Oscar De La Hoya, and Ricky Hatton were all battered by the electrifying Filipino.
For the boxing world, there was only one fight which really mattered. Manny Pacquiao vs. Floyd Mayweather Jr. Mayweather, 31-years-old at the time, had retired following a 10th round stoppage of Ricky Hatton. A rematch with Oscar De La Hoya had fallen through given his announcement to step away from the sport. There was only one opponent big enough to tempt him back, it was thought, and that was Pacquiao.
The hype was real. I remember the discussions between friends, each one with their own opinion on who would win. Pacquiao’s speed, power, and relentlessness seemed to be the perfect style for Mayweather’s cerebral, defensive-minded, counterpunching approach. There was little separating them and a true case for either man emerging victorious.
The fight was set to be a true, all-time classic which would rival Ali vs. Foreman, the hype of Tyson vs. Holyfield, and unpredictability of Leonard vs. Duran. Towards the end of the first decade of the 2000’s, it looked like fight fans would have the dream matchup. After all, how many times in boxing history had the number 1 and 2 pound-for-pound fighters matched up?
After endless toing and froing, disputes about purses, venues, drug tests and pretty much everything else, it was clear that Mayweather vs. Pacquiao would not happen. Instead, fight fans would watch the knockouts dry up for “Pac-Man” and the progressive decline of the Filipinos career.
Well, kind of. Pacquiao lost a controversial decision to Timothy Bradley and was knocked into another dimension by Juan Manuel Marquez, but continued to fight on. He flirted with retirement, but that did not last long. However, for fans, the fight that never happened was a bitter pill to swallow, especially as both fighters began to age and show signs of wear and tear.
Have you ever really wanted something, so badly. Maybe you were promised a McDonald’s Happy Meal as a child one day and had to settle for hot dogs and a newspaper. Or that girl you obsessed over in high school finally agreed to a date, but never showed up. Times both by one thousand and that was the pain us real fans had when Mayweather vs. Pacquiao failed to come to fruition.
Now, imagine your mother or father staying true to their promise and buying you a Happy Meal in your early 20’s. It’s not the same, right? Ok, there are some – including friends of mine – who would happily bite your arm off for a happy meal, but the point is, the time has elapsed. It’s gone. The same goes for that girl from high school showing up in her prom dress at your wedding reception. It’s like, “Stacey, you’re about 15 years too late.”
When Mayweather vs. Pacquiao was announced to go down on May 2, 2015, it was a strange feeling. On one hand, seeing both men inside the ropes would be a novelty. On the other, Pacquiao, now 36, had lost the speed, footwork, explosiveness, and power which had made him the prime candidate to beat Mayweather, who was 38. It certainly didn’t warrant the buzz some had.
As I previously mentioned, the fight was far from a classic. Mayweather did what Mayweather does best and looked very good against an admittedly faded “Pac-Man.” Both fighters collected their checks, Pacquiao grumbled about a damaged shoulder (that few outside his fanbase bought), and that was that. So, can we expect things to go differently this time? Can Pacquiao feasibly beat Mayweather?
In boxing, styles make fights. This is one reason why fans lost their collective minds when the prime, aggressive Pacquiao was being matched up with the defensive luminary, Mayweather.
In 2018, both men are now in the twilight of their careers. The American is 41-years-old while the Filipino will be 40 in December. The effects of age and multi-decade careers will favor Mayweather, who is always in tremendous shape. He has never been knocked out or stopped in his unbeaten, 50-0 career. Pacquiao has taken more punishment throughout his fighting days, amassing 7 losses in total.
This will likely prove to be a massively deciding factor in how the fight pans out. Mayweather’s last fight was a glorified-exhibition against former UFC lightweight titleist, Conor McGregor. The fighter, formerly known as “Pretty Boy,” looked sharp and casually assured against the mixed martial artist in that money-spinning bout.
Pacquiao’s last appearance inside the ropes was a knockout victory over the battle-hardened Lucas Matthysse in July 2018. This was the first stoppage victory for the Filipino Congressman since his bout with Miguel Cotto in Nov. 2009. The victory likely earned him just enough to claim a rematch with Mayweather. That isn’t saying much, in reality.
Heading into the fight, I believe Mayweather will be in better shape. The accumulative damage Pacquiao has taken over the years has slowed him down. His speed and power – two of the attributes which made him an all-time great – are not what they once were. If Pacquiao is to win this fight, it will take something truly special against a man that has never lost in a half-century of professional bouts.
If it is indeed true that Pacquiao was suffering from a shoulder injury in their first bout, we may see a little more adventure. There is no doubt that the Filipino will be in top shape, but fitness can be attained. Speed, power, reflexes and other important attributes of a boxer decline with age, but at a higher rate for those who take more punishment.
Mayweather, on the other hand, is not a fighter who relies on aggression or overwhelming opponents with shot after shot. He is, without doubt, one of the greatest defensive fighters in history, if not the best. He fights at a slower, smarter pace and his unworldly ability to avoid heavy shots – combined with his incredible discipline and work ethic – will only help his condition in the fight.
If the fight comes down to conditioning, I would take Mayweather every single time. Expect the Michigan-native to be in tremendous shape come fight night, with his conditioning, as always, on point.
Like it or not, this fight will generate a lot of money for all involved. Regardless of what any naysayers may think, there does appear to be considerable interest in a rematch between Mayweather and Pacquiao.
You can also be certain that there will be a lot of money put down on both fighters to emerge victorious from this bout. So, if you are looking at making some money from this bout, where do you start? As I explained above, there will be a couple of key issues which could come into play in this bout. For example, Pacquiao doesn’t have the knockout capabilities he once had. Another point to consider is that Mayweather has never lost.
While Mayweather’s last fight against Conor McGregor ended in a TKO for the former Olympian, his last stoppage came against Victor Ortiz in Sep. 2011. That was controversial, too. Ortiz had his hands down and was apologizing to Mayweather for a headbutt at the time. Put simply, Mayweather is the king of decision wins. What does this mean from a betting perspective? Allow me to explain.
Floyd Mayweather Jr. has made hundreds of millions, in part, due to his ability to play the role of the bad guy. His actions over the years have made just as many fight fans tune in to see him lose as those who want to see him win. The problem is, he never loses. Ever.
This applies to those who have put money on the likes of Marcos Maidana, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, Oscar De La Hoya, and even Pacquaio, in the past, to be the first to hand him a loss. In this fight, there will be many who repeat that gesture. As the uncredited pearl of a quote goes, “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” Mayweather can’t lose this time, surely.
His ability to dictate the pace and have things his way makes Mayweather the favorite in any fight he is involved in. The smartest way to back the 50-0 legend – which will be the best bet overall, but undoubtedly with the shortest odds – is for a unanimous decision victory. Given that he is not a knockout artist, it is doubtful he will finish Pacquiao inside the distance.
Early prices are undoubtedly favoring Mayweather to win. At the time of writing, most reputable betting sites offering odds have the boxing icon as a -265 favorite. It would be highly surprising to see this change much.
Make no mistake, Pacquiao has a chance of winning this fight. In my personal opinion, it is unlikely, but there are twelve rounds for him to shock the world.
In his last ten fights, “Pac-Man” is 6-4. One of those four losses came against Mayweather in 2015, with his last defeat a shocker at the hands of a former school teacher, Jeff Horn. His last victory, against Lucas Matthysse, was the first stoppage in he has had since 2009. This is interesting from a betting perspective, as most educated boxing fans would argue that his best chance of beating Mayweather is by way of KO/TKO.
Back in 2008/2009, there was no boxer in the world as fearsome. The Filipino was simply a destroyer and would go on to be named “Fighter of the Decade” on account of his prowess. If this was the Manny Pacquiao of old, betting lines would be pretty 50/50. There would be some reason to believe that Mayweather could be looking at his first loss. Of course, this 2018 and things can change a lot in ten years.
I cannot envisage any way Pacquiao can beat Mayweather. “TBE” is too smart, too defensively sound, and is a master of choosing his opponents. If Mayweather truly believed that he was at any risk of losing this bout, I don’t think he would want the fight. Most oddsmakers have Pacquiao at around +215. I don’t believe these odds are as generous as they should be.
As we have gathered, there are two main bets here. The most likely result is a Mayweather win, which will come with pretty short odds. A Pacquiao victory would pay nicely indeed, but I believe don’t represent his chances at all.
There are other bets out there on the fight that will pay better odds. I believe these will be more tempting – and offer fans a better chance of making some coin – than money line bets. Specials and novelty bets such as the first celebrity to be caught on camera at the fight, who will land the first punch, how many pay-per-views will sell, and if the fight will take place before December, are all currently on offer.
Many of these types of bets will, at least, provide fans with a 50/50 chance of winning. Yes, there are two fighters in this bout, but it is not equal, by any stretch of the imagination. Mayweather has already shown how to beat Pacquiao and will undoubtedly hold all the cards heading into the rematch.
50 fighters tried to outmuscle, outwork, outmaneuver, and outsmart Floyd Mayweather Jr. in his professional boxing career. The vast majority could not come close to even putting up a fight. One of these men was Manny Pacquiao. He tried and failed three years ago and I don’t believe he will have improved – or Mayweather will have declined – drastically in that timeframe.
As the greatest boxer of his generation heads into a rematch against arguably the second greatest of the modern era, there will surely be one man raising his arms at the end of the fight. That man’s name is Floyd Mayweather Jr.
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