Heavyweight contenders Francis Ngannou and Curtis Blaydes run back their 2016 encounter at UFC Fight Night 141 on November 24, 2018 at the Cadillac Stadium in Beijing, China.
Ngannou is currently ranked 4th in the UFC’s heavyweight division while Blaydes is one rank higher at #3. With current heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier defeating #2 ranked Derrick Lewis last month, this bout could have championship implications as the winner or #1 ranked Stipe Miocic could get the next title shot.
Aside from the possible title shot down the road, these two fighters have different motives heading into the event. Ngannou is looking at another chance of redemption while Blaydes is out to exorcise his demons.
Let’s preview the fight, check the odds and pick our winner:
Francis Ngannou returns to UFC action after a disappointing effort against Derrick Lewis at UFC 226. In that bout, the two heavyweight knockout artists were expected to produce a slugfest but instead they turned in a dud that only produced a total of 31 significant strikes between the two. Lewis won the fight having landed only 20 out of 54 total strikes. Worse, Ngannou threw just a total of 46 strikes in the bout and landed only 11. Unbelievable, really.
Despite the subpar effort, Ngannou remains in the Top 5 of the rankings at #4. That’s not a surprise, considering how thin the roster of the UFC’s heavyweight division is right now. The Predator now gets another shot at redemption when he faces an old foe in Curtis Blaydes. Ngannou defeated Blaydes via KO-doctor stoppage in 2016.
Some said that the Miocic fight has psychologically taken away Ngannou’s fire. The UFC, which had hoped to make him a worldwide star, gives him a chance to regain it against an opponent that he has already beaten. Psychology says that Ngannou should get his confidence back knowing he already beat this foe. That remains to be seen though.
Blaydes enters this fight having demons to exorcise. In his promotional debut at UFC Fight Night 86 in April 2016, Blaydes took on Ngannou. He lost the fight after the doctor stopped the fight before the start of round three because a nasty cut caused his right eye to swell so bad his eye was shut. But the stoppage did not mean that Ngannou dominated the fight.
Sure, Ngannou rocked Blaydes early in the fight but overall, he only landed at total of 36 significant strikes as compared to 24 for Blaydes. However, Blaydes put Ngannou to the ground with two successful takedowns in 6 attempts. And while Blaydes was hurt, Ngannou was never able to put him away. That’s not to take away the fact thought that Ngannou busted Blaydes’ right eye which forced the doctor stoppage.
Fast forward two years later and we’ve seen Blaydes evolve as a fighter and improve his striking. It’s not at the elite level yet but his ground and pound is already fearsome. He doesn’t have one punch knockout power but he hits with volume. As for Ngannou, he’s lost his edge since being exposed by Stipe Miocic at UFC 220, he has never been the same. Ngannou has fought passively since and has lost the killer instinct that made him the most feared punchers in the business just a year ago. As a result, Ngannou lost in a boring fight against Derrick Lewis where it appeared he could no longer pull the trigger.
I’m quite surprised why Blaydes is this much of a favorite against a fighter who previously beat him by knockout. There have been 51 rematches in the UFC since 2012 and in 33 of them, the fighter who won the first bout was the favorite and since UFC 1 the winner of the first fight is 67-20-3 SU in the rematch. But this may be a different case because after their first encounter, each fighter has taken opposite directions: Blaydes has gone up and Ngannou’s stock has fallen.
The main concern in this fight is Ngannou’s state of mind. That’s because the Predator has always been the physical freak that he is. However, in his last bout, it appeared that he has lost the killer instinct and has become a passive (scared?) fighter. Whether we’ll see that passive version of Ngannou or that killer one remains to be seen and that should be one of the determining factors in this bout.
On the other side of the fence, Curtis Blaydes has seen his game improve since his loss to Ngannou. In fact, Blaydes has been on a tear, winning four fights in a row. Blaydes has always known for his elite wrestling and while that is still the best part of his game, he has improved in the other aspects. In his last fight, his improved striking and ground and pound were on display when he knocked out Alistair Overeem. That victory stands as his biggest to date and it may have been his coming out party.
Blaydes has faced Ngannou before so he knows what to expect. He also knows that Miocic dominated Ngannou with his wrestling. Not only does Blaydes have the wrestling skills to replicate Miocic’s game plan, he also has the motive to execute it. Blaydes has risen in the ranks and a win would certainly put him in title consideration. Not to mention exorcise his demons.
I think Ngannou’s only chance to win this fight is a knockout and he will come out swinging for the fences early. But Blaydes withstood his punches in the first fight. Razor will weather the same storm again. In the middle rounds, Blaydes’ wrestling will take over and he will grind and tire Ngannou to the end. Prediction: Blaydes by decision
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