George Groves and Callum Smith square off in the finals of the World Boxing Super Series super middleweight tournament on Saturday, September 28, 2018 at the King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Not only winner of the bout will be the recipient of the first Muhammad Ali Trophy in the division, he will will also win the vacant Ring super middleweight title and the WBC Diamond super middleweight belt. Since Groves is the reigning WBA (super) super middleweight champion, the victor will also walk away with that world title so there’s pretty much at stake for both fighters here.
This tournament finale was initially booked for June after both fighters won their respective semifinal assignments last February. But an injury to Groves forced a postponement and after three months, it’s all systems go for this anticipated showdown between domestic rivals.
Groves, the #1 seed in the tournament, will be making the third defense of his WBA (super) super middleweight title. The Saint has a record of 28-3 with 20 knockouts and is coming off a solid win over Chris Eubank Jr. The 30 year old Groves stands 5-11 and has a reach of 72 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.
Callum Smith will be the third straight British opponent for George Groves. But unlike Jamie Cox and Chris Eubank Jr. who came up short, the 28 year old Smith is looking to shine in his first ever title shot. Smith has a record of 24-0 with 17 knockouts but he has not faced the same level of competition that the champion has. Experience wise, Callum Smith is at a disadvantage. But he makes up for that with his natural gifts.
At 6-3 and with a reach of 78 inches, Smith is naturally tall and long for the super middleweight division. Not only that, he packs genuine power in his punches and has the ability to end fights with one punch. Smith’s last two bouts have gone the distance though, proving that he can also box for 12 rounds and wi fights.
When this fight was first booked, I was looking to back George Groves but after the Saint withdrew from their initial schedule to undergo shoulder injury, I changed my mind. No doubt that George Groves has more experience, has fought better opposition and has fought in much bigger stages than Callum Smith.
I think too that Groves has the better jab between the two and considering how Erik Skoglund easily landed his jab on Callum Smith, Groves would have a field day snapping jabs on Smith. However, I’m putting a lot of weight on the injury that Groves suffered which caused the delay of this WBSS championship bout.
Groves popped his left shoulder during his hard earned win over Chris Eubank Jr. in the semifinals of the tournament. The shoulder dislocation required surgery and several months of rehabilitation so while Groves says that the shoulder is 100% fine now, you wonder what happens if the hard hitting Smith lands on that shoulder during the fight. I don’t question Groves’ medical team but a repaired shoulder is a repaired shoulder. It can get hurt again if it gets hit and in a sport like boxing, it is going to be hit often.
Having said that, Groves’ injury is just one area of concern here. Another is Groves’ stamina as he is notorious for fading late in his fights. Against a consistent body puncher like Callum Smith, that stamina is going to be crucial. And then of course Smith has the natural advantages such as youth, height and length. The challenger is two years younger, four inches taller and six inches longer than the champion. In a fight which could likely go the distance, stamina and natural physical advantages are crucial.
I still like Groves here and think he can win this fight. But given that the plus money is on the younger, bigger and hungrier lion, I’m putting my bet on Callum Smith to get the job done. I think Groves is the best in the division right now but also agree that Smith is its future. The future is here and the future is now. Prediction: Callum Smith +115
If you agree with me that Callum Smith wins this fight, then perhaps you might want to get better value by picking the mode of victory. Let’s check out the odds for Smith winning by stoppage and on points, then analyze if we make either bets:
The odds for Callum Smith winning inside the distance has the highest yield among Callum Smith bets. Smith does have 17 KOs in 24 wins and he’s recorded a knockout in six out of his last nine fights. There is a chance that Groves gets stopped as two of his three losses were by late stoppage. But I think the champ is durable enough to survive Callum Smith’s power. I think Smith can get a knock down here but we should hear the 12th round bell here. Callum Smith doesn’t win inside the distance so let’s proceed with the next prop bet:
Only seven out of Callum Smith’s 24 wins have come via decision. However, his last two bouts have gone the distance and both were twelve rounders. Against domestic opposition, Smith was knocking people out. But during this WBSS tournament where he’s faced better quality of opposition, Smith hasn’t gotten a stoppage. The knockouts have been hard to come with better opponents. It will be more difficult against a world champion like Groves who although he has been knocked out in two of his three career losses, his knockouts have come against the great Carl Froch.
But the last two fights have proven that Smith can go the full twelve rounds and still win a fight convincingly. Sure, he didn’t dominate those bouts from start to finish but he still won both by a sizeable margin. I think this is a pretty competitive fight at the start and Smith will take over in the middle to late rounds as his body shots will slow down Groves. A knockout is possible, given his punching power. But I respect Groves’ durability. Prediction: Smith Wins by 12 round decision +220
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