Blake Daniels, July 21, 2022

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The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers open a four-game series at Dodger Stadium on Thursday night.

The Giants are 48-43 on the season and they are in third place in the National League West, 12.5 games behind the division-leading Dodgers. They have won seven out of their last 10 games played including their last three.

On the other hand, the Dodgers are the best team in the NL West with their 60-30 record. Los Angeles is a strong 30-13 at home this season and they head to this series with a 9-1 record in their last 10 games played. L.A. won four in a row heading to the break and they look to continue their hot streak as the second half of the season begins.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants have struggled for most of July but entered the All-Star break looking more like their usual self including three straight wins over the Brewers. The offense was splendid last Sunday with five runs in the third inning, led by Lamonte Wade Jr.’s three-run home run.

San Francisco ranks 4th with 437 runs scored this season or an average of 4.80 runs per game. The Giants are only 21st in batting average at .238 while they are 7th in on-base percentage at .322. San Francisco also ranks 11th in slugging percentage at .403. Joc Pederson leads the team with 17 home runs while Wilmer Flores leads the team with 51 RBIs.

Carlos Rodon will open on top of the mound for the Giants. The 29-year-old left-hander is 8-5 with an ERA of 2.55 and a WHIP of 1.11 in 18 starts this season. Rodon has conceded only 31 earned runs on 82 hits with 131 strikeouts and 35 walks. The Giants are 2-1 in his last three starts.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles was surging heading to the All-Star break with only one loss in their last 12 games played and a 20-5 record in their last 25 games played. In their last game before the break last Saturday, Trea Turner homered twice while Max Muncy hit a three-run bomb.

The Dodgers rank 5th in team batting average at .255. They are no.1 in baseball when it comes to on-base percentage at .333 and 4th in slugging percentage at .437. Los Angeles is averaging 5.13 runs per game and has scored the second-most runs in the league with 462.

Mitch White gets the nod to start for the Dodgers on Thursday. The 27-year-old right-hander from San Jose, California is 1-2 with an ERA of 4.20 and a WHIP of 1.29 in 13 games pitched with 8 starts. White has allowed 21 earned runs on 41 hits with 42 strikeouts and 17 walks in a total of 45.0 innings pitched. The Dodgers are 2-3 in White’s last five starts.

Giants vs Dodgers Betting Prediction

The Giants are 3-0 in their last three games played against the Dodgers. However, Los Angeles is 4-1 in their last five home games against the Giants.

The Giants are:

• 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
• 5-0 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 8-1 in their last 9 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 8-1 in their last 9 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
• 5-1 in their last 6 against a team with a winning record.
• 4-1 in their last 5 games versus National League West.
• 5-2 in their last 7 games when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 24-10 in their last 34 games following an off day.
• 12-5 in their last 17 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 3-7 in their last 10 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 2-6 in their last 8 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 2-6 in their last 8 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 1-10 in their last 11 Thursday games.
• 0-5 in their last 5 Games 1s of a series.

The Dodgers are:

• 107-47 in their last 154 games played overall.
• 107-47 in their last 154 games on grass.
• 50-22 in their last 72 Game 1s of a series.
• 44-20 in their last 64 games following an off day.
• 35-16 in their last 51 home games against a team with a winning record.
• 55-26 in their last 81 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 47-23 in their last 70 games versus a team with a winning record.
• 12-2 in their last 14 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 6-1 in their last 7 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 12-2 in their last 14 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 43-12 in their last 55 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 49-15 in their last 64 home games.
• 39-12 in their last 51 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 41-13 in their last 54 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 50-17 in their last 67 Thursday games.
• 37-15 in their last 52 games versus National League West.
• 39-16 in their last 55 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 41-17 in their last 58 games following a win.
• 14-6 in their last 20 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

The Dodgers are just 2-3 against the Giants this season but their two wins have come at home where this game will be played. Los Angeles has lost just once in their last 12 games played and entered the All-Star break with four straight wins. The Dodgers have lost just 15 times in their last 64 home games played overall.

Meanwhile, the Giants won three in a row heading to the midseason classic but are just 8-10 in their last 18 games played overall. San Francisco lost its last five Game 1s of a series and has only one win in their last 11 Thursday games.

However, while it’s clear that the Dodgers are the better team here, the Giants have the edge in the pitching matchup.

Rodon always gives the Giants a chance to win any game. The issues with him have been with his health, not his talent and right now, he looks to be 100%. So far this season, Rodon has a 58 FIP and a 22.6 K/BB%. San Francisco’s lineup produced an impressive 107 wRC+ during the first half of the season. On the other hand, the Dodgers have lost four out of the last games started by White and he is coming off an outing where he conceded six earned runs on 10 hits in 5.0 innings.

I won’t blame you if you take the Dodgers here but I like the plus money value in the Giants.

Prediction: San Francisco Giants

Giants vs Dodgers Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in four out of the last six meetings between these two teams. The under is also 3-2 in their last five games played at Dodger Stadium.

San Francisco Giants over/under trends:

• Under is 3-2 in the Giants’ last five games played overall
• Under is 21-20 in the Giants’ 41 road games played this season.
• Under is 3-0-2 in the Giants’ last 5 games following an off day.
• Under is 9-1-1 in the Giants’ last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 7-1-1 in the Giants’ last 9 during game 1 of a series.
• Under is 4-1 in the Giants’ last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in the Giants’ last 5 games following a win.
• Under is 4-1 in the Giants’ last 5 Thursday games.
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• Under is 4-2 in their last six games against the National League West
• Under is 8-3-1 in the Giants’ last 12 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in the Giants’ last 7 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 5-2 in the Giants’ last 7 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Over is 21-5 in the Giants’ last 26 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in the Giants’ last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 9-4 in the Giants’ last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Los Angeles Dodgers over/under trends:

• Under is 13-6-3 in the Dodgers’ last 22 games played overall.
• Under is 13-6-3 in the Dodgers’ last 22 on grass.
• Under is 33-16-2 in the Dodgers’ last 51 games following an off day.
• Under is 4-0 in the Dodgers’ last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 3-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last 4 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 6-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 8 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 11-2-3 in the Dodgers’ last 16 against National League West.
• Under is 5-1-2 in the Dodgers’ last 8 home games.
• Under is 9-3 in the Dodgers’ last 12 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 12-4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 17 games following a win.
• Under is 15-5-2 in the Dodgers’ last 22 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 3-1-2 in the Dodgers’ last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 10-4-3 in the Dodgers’ last 17 against a team with a winning record.
• Under is 33-14-4 in the Dodgers’ last 51 Game 1s of a series.
• Under is 13-6-3 in the Dodgers’ last 22 on grass.
• Under is 33-16-2 in the Dodgers’ last 51 games following an off day.
• Over is 4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Los Angeles has the best staff ERA in baseball at 2.96 and they are limiting opposing teams to a batting average of only .217. The under is 13-9 in the Dodgers’ last 22 games played and in 10 out of their last 17 games against an opponent with a winning record. San Francisco is 12th in team ERA at 3.82 and Rodon is posting a 2.66 ERA this season. In nine starts since the start of June, Rodon has allowed more than 2 earned runs once.

The Dodgers have allowed only three or fewer runs seven times in their last 10 games played while five out of San Francisco’s last nine games saw a total of 7 runs or fewer. In the last six meetings between these two teams, the total has hit over seven runs only hit twice. I like these teams to go under the total.

Prediction: Under 8.5