Blake Daniels, August 8, 2022

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National League West rivals collide on Monday night when the San Francisco Giants visit the San Diego Padres.

San Diego is 61-50 and in second place in the division, 15.5 games behind the leaders Los Angeles Dodgers. The Padres are 5-5 in their last 10 games and were swept by the Dodgers in their last series. San Diego is currently tied with the Phillies for the second wild card spot in the NL.

Meanwhile, San Francisco is 53-55 on the season and they are in third place in the NL West, 22 games behind the Dodgers. They are 6.5 games behind the Padres in the race for the second wild card spot in the National League. The Giants were also swept by the Dodgers 4-0 two series ago but defeated the Oakland A’s 2-0 in their series before heading to San Diego.

These teams have split their last 10 meetings, including a 2-2 result in their most recent series last July 7-10th in San Diego.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants have struggled coming off the All-Star break, losing 12 of their 15 games including a 4-0 sweep at the hands of the Dodgers last week. However, they bounced back in their last set, defeating the Oakland A’s 2-0 while outscoring them 13-7 in total runs scored.

San Francisco ranks 9th in runs scored at 4.66 per game. They are also 9th in home runs with 127 but they are hitting at a low .234 percentage and have an OBP of 318. On the road, the Giants are hitting worse at .230, 24th overall in the league.

Left-hander Alex Wood will open on top of the mound for the Giants on Monday. Wood is 7-9 with an ERA of 4.42 in 21 starts. He struggled to start the season, posting an ERA of over 5 runs in May and June. He pitched well in July posting an ERA of 65 in five starts. He was abused by the Dodgers in his last start, giving up six runs in 5.1 innings.

San Diego Padres

The Padres were swept by the Dodgers 3-0 in their last series. San Diego’s feared offensive lineup was limited to only seven total runs in three games played against the World Series favorites. They are just 9-8 in their first 17 games since the All-Star break while posting an ERA of 4.03 and a batting average of .244.

While they have lost their last four games played, there is plenty to be excited about. The Padres acquired Juan Soto and Josh Bell at the trade deadline. Fernando Tatis Jr. has missed the entire season but could return soon. San Diego is scoring 4.45 runs per game, 15th in the league.

The Padres will counter with their own left-hander in Blake Snell on top of the mound on Monday. Snell is 4-5 with an ERA of 4.16 in 13 starts this season. Snell is coming off an outing where he allowed only one run in six innings. He has held opponents to one or fewer runs in five out of his last six starts.

Giants vs Padres Betting Prediction

The Giants are 2-5 in their last seven games played against the Padres. San Francisco is 2-3 in their last five road games against San Diego.

The Giants are:

• 5-12 in their last 17 games played overall.
• 2-7 in their last 9 road games.
• 5-12 in their last 17 games on grass.
• 5-12 in their last 17 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 3-8 in their last 11 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 5-16 in their last 21 games opposite the National League West division.
• 2-7 in their last 9 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 2-8 in their last 10 Games 1s of a series.
• 0-5 in their last 5 Monday games.
• 0-4 in their last 4 games versus a left-handed starter.
• 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a left-handed starter.
• 0-8 in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record.
• 0-4 in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning record.
• 4-9 in their last 13 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 3-7 in their last 10 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 5-0 in their last 5 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• 8-1 in their last 9 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 8-1 in their last 9 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 12-5 in their last 17 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

The Padres are:

• 0-4 in their last 4 overall.
• 0-4 in their last 4 games on grass.
• 0-4 in their last 4 versus the National League West Division.
• 1-4 in their last five games against the National League.
• 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• 0-6 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
• 5-1 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
• 4-1 in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing record.
• 4-1 in their last five home games against the National League.
• 4-1 in their last five home games against the National League West Division.
• 6-2 in their last 8 Games 1s of a series.
• 5-2 in their last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 20-42 in their last 62 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Padres are 6-22 in their last 28 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

The Padres have dropped four in a row but those losses came against the best team in baseball in the Dodgers. Meanwhile, the Giants have lost eight straight games when facing an opponent with a winning record.

Wood struggled for two months then put together a good month in July. However, he was lit up in his last start, giving up six runs. And he will be facing a San Diego team that became much better at the trade deadline. They may not have played like one of the best teams in baseball in their last four games played but they are, and could very well show it here at home, in a bounce-back game and even series.

The Padres also have a starter who has been red-hot as of late. Snell has been shutting down opponents in his last five starts and will be facing a Giants lineup that is only hitting .232 against left-handers this season. With San Diego’s ability to hit the long ball with the addition of Soto and Bell, look for the Padre to break out of their slump in this game.

Prediction: San Diego Padres

Giants vs Padres Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in 17 out of the last 25 meetings between these two teams. The over is also 7-2 in their last nine meetings in San Diego.

San Francisco Giants over/under trends:

• Over is 4-1-1 in the Giants’ last 6 overall.
• Over is 4-0 in the Giants’ last 4 road games.
• Over is 4-0 in the Giants’ last 4 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 4-1-1 in the Giants’ last 6 on grass.
• Over is 4-1-1 in the Giants’ last 6 versus the National League West Division.
• Over is 4-1-1 in the Giants’ last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 7-2 in the Giants’ last 9 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Giants’ last 5 games versus a left-handed starter.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Giants’ last 5 versus a team with a winning record.
• Under is 4-1 in the Giants’ last 5 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 12-3-1 in the Giants’ last 16 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in the Giants’ last 7 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 5-2 in the Giants’ last 7 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 12-5-3 in the Giants’ last 20 Games 1s of a series.

San Diego Padres over/under trends:

• Over is 3-1-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games played overall?
• Over is 3-0-1 in the Padres’ last 4 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 4-1-1 in the Padres’ last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Over is 7-2-1 in the Padres’ last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Padres’ last 5 on grass.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Padres’ last 5 versus the National League West Division.
• Over is 3-1-2 in the Padres’ last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 8-3-1 in the Padres’ last 12 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 5-2-1 in the Padres’ last 8 against a team with a losing record.
• Over is 7-3-1 in the Padres’ last 11 games following a loss.
• Under is 3-1-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 8-3-1 in the Padres’ last 12 Monday games.
• Under is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Under is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 4-0 in the Padres’ last 4 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

The Padres have scored a total of seven runs in their last four games played but they were playing the Dodgers who rank 1st in MLB in team ERA at 2.87. Meanwhile, the Giants are just 17th in staff ERA at 3.93 so San Diego’s bats should have more success on Monday night.

These teams have combined to score an average of 8.1 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 8.33 runs per game in their most recent three encounters. The Giants have scored five or more runs in five out of their last eight games played while the Padres have allowed five or more runs in four out of their last six games played.

Snell has pitched well as of late as he has allowed one run or fewer in five out of his last six starts. He held the Giants to one run in his last outing against them last July 8. I think Snell will pitch well in this game but once he steps out, the San Diego bullpen is going to allow a run or two more. Add my prediction that the Padres have a big offensive night, and I have no doubt this game will hit the OVER.

Prediction: Over 8