Week 11 of NFL action kicks off with an NFC showdown between the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday at the CenturyLink Field in Seattle, Washington.
The Packers are coming off a 31-12 home victory over the Miami Dolphins while the Seahawks are fresh from a 31-36 road loss to the Los Angeles Rams. With the Packers at 4-4-1 and the Seahawks at 4-5 in the team standings, a loss may make it difficult for either team to make up ground and make the playoffs thus making this contest a must win for both squads.
The Green Bay Packers picked up their 4th win of the season against the Miami Dolphins last week. The win gave the Packers an impressive 4-0-1 record at Lambeau Field this season. But good as they are at home, the Packers have struggled playing away from home this year as they are still winless on the road after four tries.
Aaron Rodgers has completed 217-355 passes (61.1%) for a total of 2,741 yards with one interception. Rodgers has also rushed for 145 yards and sacked 25 times this year. Aaron Jones leads the Green Bay rushing attack with 494 yards on 73 carries with four rushing touchdowns scored. Davante Adams is the top wide receiver with 787 yards and 9 touchdowns on 62 catches.
The Seattle Seahawks lost to the Los Angeles Rams 31-36 in their most recent game. The loss was Seattle’s second to the Rams this season as they also dropped a 31-33 contest to the Rams last October 7th. But Sunday’s loss was especially tougher as the Rams took a 21-20 lead after three quarters only to be outscored 16-10 in the final frame. With the loss, the Seahawks dropped to 4-5 on the season and like the Packers, they need to win badly on Thursday to keep their postseason hopes alive.
Russell Wilson has thrown for a total of 1,967 yards with 21 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions on the season. Wilson has completed 163 out of 247 passes for a 66% pass completion rate. Wilson has also rushed for a total of 210 yards on 33 carries and he has been sacked 29 times this season. Chris Carson has ran for a total of 497 yards on 111 carries while Tyler Lockett has caught 33 passes for a total of 483 yards with 7 touchdowns.
The Packers are 4-7-1 SU in their last 12 games played and 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road. On the other hand, the Seahawks are 4-5 SU in their last 9 games played but are 16-8 in their last 24 games played at home. Head to head, the Packers are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games against the Seahawks but are 1-4 SU in their last five games against the Seahawks in Seattle.
The Packers have not won back to back games since October last year and are winless on the road this season. They are banged up and their secondary need to do plenty of work especially against the run. In contrast, the Seattle defense has been pretty good almost all season long. Save for the two games against the Rams where they gave up a total of 69 points, the Seattle defense has allowed just a total of 123 points in their other seven games combined.
I also like to back on the home team in Thursday games because it’s always a different turn around for a road team after playing on Sunday. Of course, it’s always hard to bet on a Packers’ team that is led by Aaron Rodgers, who almost always finds a way to win, especially in must win situations. I think this is going to be a back and forth game but in the end, the Seahawks have the better defense and they should come out victorious at home. We’re picking the Seattle Seahawks to beat the Green Bay Packers on 11/15/18.
Green Bay is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games played and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on the road. Seattle is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played but only 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games at home. Head to head, the Seahawks are just 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games against the Packers but are 4-1 ATS against Green Bay when playing in Seattle.
Green Bay is also 0-4 ATS in their last four games on fieldturf and 0-4 ATS in their last four games after an ATS win. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams from the NFC, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their previous game and 7-0-1 in their last 8 Thursday games played.
Green Bay has failed to cover in five out of their last seven games as an underdog of at least two points. However, the Seahawks are also just 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven games when favored by at least two points. The Seahawks’ four wins have come by an average of 13 points per game with no winning margin lower than 3 points. The are averaging 24.3 points per game while allowing 21.3 points per outing. Prediction: Seahawks -2.5
The total has gone under in 4 out of the last 6 games of the Packers but the over is 13-3 in their last 16 games on the road. The total has gone under in 6 out of the last 8 games for the Packers. The total has gone over in 2 of Green Bay’s 4 road games this season and the total has gone under in 2 out of the 3 home games for Seattle. Head to head, the over is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
These teams have combined to score a total of more than 49 points in only two out of their last five meetings. In their last 10 games against each other, the average score has only been 46.8 points. Rodgers and Wilson are capable of putting up points especially with the game on the line. But with their seasons probably on the line, someone’s defense is going to step up here. The total is going to be close to 49 but I think it’s going to come up a little short. Prediction: Under 49
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