Two rising teams collide on Monday night at the City of Brotherly Love when the Memphis Grizzlies visit the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center.
Memphis has been the biggest surprise out West as they have stormed to the third seed in the conference with their 35-17 SU record. The Grizzlies have lost just three times in their last 10 games and have won three in a row heading to this road contest. In their last game, Memphis blew out the Washington Wizards 115-95 on Sunday afternoon.
Philadelphia has adjusted to life without Ben Simmons and with Joel Embiid on a dominant stretch right now, the Sixers have also moved up to third place in the East at 30-19 and they are just a mere 1.5 games behind leaders Chicago. The Sixers are also 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played and have won four in a row heading to this game. In their last assignment, the Sixers nipped the Sacramento Kings 103-101.
Ja Morant had another big night for the Grizzlies on Sunday as he scored 34 points on 15-27 shooting including 4-8 from behind the arc. Morant has scored at least 30 points in each of the team’s last six games played. Desmond Bane also had a good game with 19 points while Steven Adams had a solid night with 10 points and 15 rebounds.
Memphis is the NBA’s 5th highest-scoring team this season at 112.0 points per game. They are also the number 1 rebounding team in the league at 48.3 boards grabbed per contest and are 9th in passing at 25.0 assists per game. The Grizzlies are 14th in scoring defense at 108.2 points per game allowed.
Joel Embiid continued his dominant stretch with 36 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists while shooting 10-18 from the floor and 2-5 from deep. Tobias Harris provided support with 16 points while Tyrese Maxey added 13 for Philly. Seth Curry also returned after a four-game absence and he scored 8 points with 5 assists.
The Sixers are ranked 21st in scoring at only 107.2 points per game this season. Philadelphia is 30th in the league in rebounding at only 42.2 boards grabbed per contest and is 21st in passing at 23.0 assists per game. Philly is ranked 8th in scoring defense at only 105.2 points per game allowed this season.
Memphis is 16-3 SU in their last 19 games played. The Grizzlies are 16-8 SU in 24 road games played this season, and 8-1 SU in their last nine games against the Eastern Conference.
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in their last six games played. The Sixers are 5-1 SU in their last six games played at home.
Head to head, the Grizzlies are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Sixers.
Both these teams are on a roll right now and are led by their respective MVP candidates in Ja Morant for Memphis and Joel Embiid for Philadelphia. Morant loves to play at a fast and furious pace while the Sixers would love to slow this game down and take advantage of Embiid’s presence in the low block. Although the Grizzlies have Adams, he isn’t going to contain Embiid for one full game.
The Sixers also have a better defense than Memphis so they should be able to get the stops when they need them. These teams have played in close head-to-head games over their last 10 meetings and this one should not be any different.
Look for the Sixers to slow down Morant and the Grizzlies to speed up the game to negate Embiid’s strengths. Ultimately, the Process will be unstoppable here and he will lead the Sixers to an outright win. This game could go down to the final possession. I don’t see the Sixers winning by more than three points here.
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers
The Grizzlies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games played. Memphis is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games played on the road, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Monday games, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, 7-2 ATS in their last nine games when playing on one day rest, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up win, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played on the road against an opponent with a winning home record, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after an ATS win, and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.
The Sixers are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games played. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against the Southwest Division, 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS loss, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, 37-15-1 in their last 53 home games against an opponent with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 but just 1-4 ATS in their last five games after a straight-up win.
Head to head, the Sixers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies are the best ATS team in the NBA at 34-18-0 or a cover rate of 65.8%. They also have an average margin of victory of 3.8 points per game. Over the last 20 games or so, the Grizzlies have been the steadiest team in the NBA.
The Sixers meanwhile are just above the .500 mark at 25-24-1 ATS this season or a cover rate of 51%. However, Philly has been in many close games this year and their average margin of victory is just 2.4 points per game.
Interestingly, Memphis is outscoring Philadelphia by an average of 3.9 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, and 17.67 points per game in their last three while winning all games outright. I’ll take my chances with the best ATS team in the league this season.
Prediction: Grizzlies +3.5
The total has gone under in each of the last four road games played by the Grizzlies. The under is also 25-24-3 in their 52 games played this season, 4-1-1 in their last six road games against the Eastern Conference, 9-3-1 in their last 13 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-1-1 in their last six road games against an opponent with a winning home percentage of above .600, and 5-2 in their last seven road games when playing on one day rest.
The total has gone under in 8 out of the last 12 games played by the Sixers. The under is 5-2 in their last seven games against the Eastern Conference, 8-4 in their last 12 January games, 12-4 in their last 16 Monday games, 21-8-2 in their last 31 games after a straight-up win, 28-11-2 in their last 41 games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, 5-2 in their last seven games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 20-8 in their last 28 games against an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or better, and 10-4 in their last 14 home games.
These teams have combined to score an average of 210.5 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 214.33 points per game in their most recent three encounters. They combined for 216 points during their first meeting of the season with the Grizzlies holding the Sixers to only 91 points for the game.
Philadelphia has gone under 219 in each of their last five games played and has allowed 102 or fewer points six times in their last 10 games played. The Grizzlies meanwhile, have gone under 219 points in three out of their last five games played and have allowed 109 or fewer times thrice in their last three assignments.
The Sixers also rank 8th in scoring defense while Memphis is in the upper half at no. 14. Philly is scoring only 107.6 points per game this season which should offset Memphis’ Top 5 scoring offense.
We’ve got too many talented scorers here but ultimately, it’s going to be defense that wins this game. Whoever limits the opponent from scoring his regular numbers will take this game.
Prediction: Under 218
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