Blake Daniels, October 11, 2022

0 COMMENTS

The Cleveland Guardians will head to Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees in Game 1 of their American League Division Series on Tuesday night.

Cleveland booked its ticket to the ALDS when it swept the Tampa Bay Rays 2-0 in their Wild Card series. The Guardians won Game 1 2-1 and then blanked the Rays 1-0 in the closeout Game 2. Meanwhile, the Yankees handily won the AL East Division title and are well-rested heading to this series.

The Yankees have won five out of their last six head-to-head games against the Guardians.

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians head to the ALDS as the hottest team in baseball. After their two-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland is now 26-4 in their last 30 games played. In the Wild Card series, the Guardians scored only a total of three runs but their pitching staff held the Rays to only one run scored in two games played.

Cleveland held Tampa Bay scoreless in 15 innings played in Game 2 where the bullpen went 9 innings while allowing only 4 hits with six strikeouts. During the entire series, the Cleveland bullpen allowed only four hits with zero runs on 10.1 innings pitched. If the Guardians want to beat the Yankees, they need that kind of pitching on Monday night to silence New York’s big bats.

Right-hander Cal Quantrill will open for the Guardians in Game 1. Cantrill won 15 games in his first full season as a starter. However, he pitched only once against the Yankees this season and did so way back in April. In that game, he pitched 6.1 innings with six hits and three runs allowed. Quantrill is 3-0 with an ERA of 2.76 in his last five starts.

New York Yankees

After winning the AL East Division, the Yankees got a five-day rest before opening their 2022 postseason campaign. Hopefully, the rest gave Aaron Boone’s team enough to recover. In an interesting move, Boone added Matt Carpenter to the postseason roster. Carpenter was out with a fractured foot but will be ready to pinch-hit if needed in the playoffs.

The Yankees head to the series with a 20-10 record in their last 30 games played. They will also play with Aaron Judge off the pressure of breaking the AL home run record. New York has turned things around after coming out of the All-Star break in a massive slump. The Yankees are the second-best scoring team in MLB and have the third-best bullpen ERA in baseball

Gerritt Cole got the nod to start on top of the hill for the Yankees. Cole won 13 games this season and struck out a team-record 257. However, Cole also led all AL pitchers with 33 home runs allowed this season, including 10 in his last 36 innings pitched in September. He faced Cleveland twice during the regular season and posted a 2-0 record with an ERA of 1.42 and 15 strikeouts.

Guardians vs Yankees Betting Trend

The Guardians are 1-5 in their last six games played against the Yankees. Cleveland is also 23-49 in their last 72 meetings in New York.

Cleveland Guardians betting trends:

• The Guardians are 40-18 in their last 58 overall.
• The Guardians are 0-5 in their last 5 playoff road games.
• The Guardians are 21-6 in their last 27 road games.
• The Guardians are 8-0 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 against the American League East.
• The Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
• The Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.
• The Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games following an off day.
• The Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Guardians are 6-1 in their last 7 Tuesday games.
• The Guardians are 6-1 in their last 7 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Guardians are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The Guardians are 17-4 in their last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• The Guardians are 22-6 in their last 28 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Guardians are 17-5 in their last 22 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• The Guardians are 20-6 in their last 26 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Guardians are 23-7 in their last 30 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The Guardians are 19-7 in their last 26 games following a win.
• The Guardians are 19-7 in their last 26 Game 1s of a series.
• The Guardians are 38-17 in their last 55 games on grass.
• The Guardians are 2-8 in their last 10 playoff games.
• The Guardians are 1-4 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Guardians are 0-6 in their last 6 Divisional Playoff games.
• The Guardians are 0-4 in their last 4 Divisional Playoff road games.

New York Yankees’ betting trends:

• The Yankees are 12-5 in their last 17 overall.
• The Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss.
• The Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The Yankees are 54-18 in their last 72 vs. American League Central.
• The Yankees are 54-21 in their last 75 home games.
• The Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The Yankees are 40-16 in their last 56 Tuesday games.
• The Yankees are 10-4 in their last 14 games on grass.
• The Yankees are 10-4 in their last 14 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Yankees are 92-37 in their last 129 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Yankees are 41-18 in their last 59 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Yankees are 9-4 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
• The Yankees are 9-4 in their last 13 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Yankees are 11-5 in their last 16 playoff home games.
• The Yankees are 11-5 in their last 16 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Yankees are 4-9 in their last 13 games following an off day.
• The Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff games.
• The Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Although Gerritt Cole did not finish the season strong, the veteran has a very good postseason record. The right-hander s 8-5 in his career during the playoffs and has an ERA of 2.93 in 14 career starts while striking out 11.6 batters per nine innings. Cole also pitched well against the Guardians this season, winning both of his starts while giving up just two earned runs on 7 hits in 12 ½ innings pitched against Cleveland.

The Yankees have won five out of their last six games against the Guardians and are 9-2 in their last 11 home games. New York easily won the AL East title and has the best slugger in the business in Aaron Judge who had 62 home runs and 131 RBIs. I like the Yankees to win Game 1.

Prediction: New York Yankees

Guardians vs Yankees Over/under trends

The total has gone over in six out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The over is also 4-1 in their last four meetings in New York.

Cleveland Guardians over/under trends:

• Over is 6-2 in the Guardians’ last 8 overall.
• Over is 4-0 in the Guardians’ last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 8-2 in the Guardians’ last 10 Game 1s of a series.
• Over is 4-1 in the Guardians’ last 5 games versus a right-handed starter.
• Over is 7-3-1 in the Guardians’ last 11 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Guardians’ last 5 Divisional Playoff games.
• Over is 6-2 in the Guardians’ last 8 on grass.
• Under is 8-3 in the Guardians’ last 11 playoff road games.
• Under is 4-0 in the Guardians’ last 4 versus American League East.
• Under is 3-1-1 in the Guardians’ last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 23-9 in the Guardians’ last 32 against a team with a winning record.
• Under is 7-3 in Guardians’ last 10 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Guardians’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

New York Yankees over/under trends:

• Under is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 4-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 overall.
• Under is 4-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 on grass.
• Under is 34-14-3 in the Yankees’ last 51 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 15-5-1 in the Yankees’ last 21 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 6-2-1 in the Yankees’ last 9 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 16-6-1 in the Yankees’ last 23 games following a loss.
• Under is 39-18-3 in the Yankees’ last 60 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 7-2 in the Yankees’ last 9 playoff games.
• Over is 3-1-2 in the Yankees’ last 6 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 11-4 in the Yankees’ last 15 home games.
• Over is 5-2 in the Yankees’ last 7 Divisional Playoff home games.
• Over is 7-3 in the Yankees’ last 10 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 33-16-3 in the Yankees’ last 52 vs. American League Central.
• Over is 4-0 in the Yankees’ last 4 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 6-1 in the Yankees’ last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 6-1 in the Yankees’ last 7 games following an off day.
• Over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

The Yankees are 2nd in the Major League when it comes to scoring runs this season. However, the Guardians are only 18th overall in that department.

Quantrill ended the season pitching his best baseball of the season. He should be able to get the Guardians deep in this ball game and hand the ball over to a bullpen that has yet to allow a run in 10.1 innings pitched during the postseason. Meanwhile, the Yankees have the reliable Cole on the mound and if he struggles in any way, the well-rested Yankees will have plenty of options to keep the Guardians from putting up runs.

This game should be a tight one and the score will be close. Give me both teams to hit the under here.

Prediction: Under 7