Blake Daniels, May 12, 2022

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The Miami Heat look to close out the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 6 of their best-of-seven second-round series. Miami took Game 5 in Miami and now leads the series 3-2 with Game 6 to be played in Philly. The Heat are +2.5 point spread underdogs to win on Thursday.

Miami blew out Philadelphia in Game 5, putting on an offensive clinic where they scored 120 points, the most by any team in this defensive series. Jimmy Butler led the Heat and he was ably supported by Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro in the scoring department.

Meanwhile, the Sixers struggled in Game 5 with the masked Joel Embiid looking obviously hurt on the basketball court. James Harden had a terrible Game 5 after playing big in Game 4. Philadelphia’s back is against the proverbial wall and they need to win the last two games of the series to advance to the Conference Finals.

Miami Heat

The Heat blew out the Sixers in Game 5 to take a pivotal 3-2 series lead. Their 35-point winning margin matched the largest win by any team in the current postseason. Miami now has two chances to eliminate the Sixers, beginning Game 6 which will be played in Philly. If needed, Game 7 will be in Miami where the Heat are unbeaten at 6-0 SU in the playoffs.

Miami made 13 of 33 three-point attempts in Game 5 and outrebounded the Sixers 46-36. The huge lead gave coach Spo the opportunity to rest his players in the fourth quarter and keep them fresh heading to this contest. The Heat have struggled in the first two games in Philly but with the stakes bigger here, expect Jimmy Butler to step up big time.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers stood no chance in Game 5 as the Heat raced to a 31-19 first-quarter lead and never looked back. Joel Embiid tried his very best to keep the Sixers in the game early but it was obvious that he was playing hurt and that affected his performance. James Harden wasn’t hurt but he managed only 14 points in another lackluster effort.

Philly tried to rally and was able to cut the lead to 81-66 on a Tyrese Maxey three before the end of the third period. However, they allowed the Heat to score the first 12 points of the fourth quarter and that was all she wrote. Maxey shot just 2-10 while Niang missed all five of his three-pointers as the Sixers struggled badly in a game they needed to win.

Who Wins?

The Heat are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Sixers. Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in their last six home games against Miami.

Jimmy Butler has been huge for the Heat in this series as he is putting up 26.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 5.8 assists through five games played. He’s starred in every one of the Heat’s three wins in this series and with a chance to close it out on Thursday, look for Butler to be at the front of the Miami attack.

The Heat also boast impressive performances from Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro. However, Miami will be without Kyle Lowry again after he aggravated his injury in Game 4 and also missed Game 5. Gabe Vincent and Victor Oladipo have been solid in Lowry’s absence so the Heat will be just fine if they make their shots.

The Sixers will need Joel Embiid to be dominant in order to extend the series. He scored 17 in Gam 5 and that’s not going to be enough from him. James Harden had 31 in Game 4 but only 14 in 37 minutes in Game 5. They need Harden to be in All-Star form as well. Philly has been outed in the second round three times in the last four seasons. It could be 4 of 5 on Thursday.

Prediction: Miami Heat

Heat vs Sixers Game 6 Spread Betting Prediction

Miami is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against Philadelphia. However, the Heat are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in Philadelphia.

The Heat are:

• 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against. an opponent with a home winning percentage of .600 or better.
• 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against an opponent with a winning straight-up record.
• 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
• 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 Conference Semifinals games.
• 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games as a betting underdog.
• 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as betting underdogs.

The Sixers are:

• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as home betting favorites.
• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against. a team with a winning road record.
• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as betting favorites.
• 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as betting favorites.
• 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• 2-4 ATS in their last six games played in May.

I won’t blame you if you lay the points and take the Sixers because the Heat were smoking hot in Game 5 and the law of averages say that kind of game is not sustainable. However, I think that Miami now has the mental edge over the Sixers knowing that Philly has to win out the remaining two games to win the series.

There is more pressure on the Sixers to stage a comeback than for the Heat to close out the series. Sure, the Heat struggled for only 79 points at the Wells Fargo Center in Game 1 but after a big Game 5 performance, expect some momentum to carry over.

Joel Embiid is no longer the dominant force he was during the regular season. But what can he do? He’s playing with multiple injuries and has to carry a bigger load with James Harden playing like a shadow of his old self. Tyrese Maxey has been the bigger player than Harden in this series but he doesn’t have the playoff experience of the Heat’s guards.

If James Harden can revert to the Harden of old and score 35 points in this game, the Sixers have a good chance of extending the series to a Game 7. We saw a glimpse of that player in Game 4 when he had 31and made six three-pointers but he’s not scored more than 20 in the other four games of the series and is coming off a paltry 14-point effort in Game 5. Unless the high-scoring Harden shows up, I’ll take the Heat and the plus points here.

Prediction: Miami Heat +2.5

Heat vs Sixers Game 6 Over/Under Odds Betting Prediction

The total has gone under in seven out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. However, the over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Philadelphia.

Miami Heat Over/Under Trends:

• Under is 4-0 in the Heat’s last 4 Thursday games.
• Under is 7-1 in the Heat’s last 8 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 7-1 in the Heat’s last 8 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in the Heat’s last 6 games following a straight-up win.
• Under is 8-2 in the Heat’s last 10 games played overall.
• Under is 9-3 in the Heat’s last 12 games against an opponent from the Eastern Conference.
• Under is 4-1 in the Heat’s last 5 games following an ATS win.
• Under is 4-1 in the Heat’s last 5 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• Under is 5-2 in the Heat’s last 7 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• Under is 7-3 in the Heat’s last 10 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• Over is 20-7 in the Heat’s last 27 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• Over is 14-5 in the Heat’s last 19 road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage greater than .600.
• Over is 13-6 in the Heat’s last 19 games as a road underdog.

Philadelphia 76ers Over/Under Trends:

• Under is 8-3 in the Sixers’ last 11 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• Under is 5-2 in the Sixers’ last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in the Sixers’ last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in the Sixers’ last 7 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• Under is 7-3 in the Sixers’ last 10 games played overall.
• Under is 7-3 in the Sixers’ last 10 versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• Under is 7-2 in the Sixers’ last 9 Conference Semifinals games.
• Under is 5-1 in the Sixers’ last 6 games as a favorite.
• Under is 5-1 in the Sixers’ last 6 playoff games as a favorite.
• Under is 4-1 in the Sixers’ last five Thursday home games.
• Over is 6-2 in the Sixers’ last 8 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• Over is 8-3 in the Sixers’ last 11 games following a straight-up loss.
• Over is 7-2 in the Sixers’ last 9 games following an ATS loss.
• Over is 7-3 in the Sixers’ last 10 home games.

These two teams have combined to score an average of 203.1 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, and 202.33 points per game in their most recent three encounters. They have gone under 207 points thrice in the five games played in this series, including 205 in Game 5.

Miami is the no. 1 defensive team in the playoffs at only 98.2 points per game allowed and has held the Sixers to 103 or fewer points four times in five games played in his series. Meanwhile, the Sixers aren’t too far behind at no. 5 at 104.6 points per game conceded in the postseason.

If Embiid’s injuries are as bad as they looked watching him on TV in Game 5, Philadelphia’s offense is compromised. James Harden is no longer the unstoppable scoring machine he was in Houston. He isn’t even the same guy who played in Brooklyn earlier this season. With Miami playing the best defense among the playoff teams left in the playoffs, this should be another low-scoring game.

Prediction: Under 207