The Miami Heat travel to the Bay Area to take on the Golden State Warriors at the Chase Center.
Miami is 23-14 on the season and they are the number 1 team in the Southeast Division. The Heat are currently the 4th ranked team in the East, 2.5 games behind current leader Chicago. Miami played last night at Sacramento and lost to the Kings 115-113. Despite the loss, the Heat are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played.
Golden State has the best record in the league at 28-7. The Dubs are just one-half game ahead of the Phoenix Suns in the Pacific Division and Western Conference team standings. The Warriors are coming off a 123-116 win over the Utah Jazz to bounce back from an 89-86 loss to the Denver Nuggets last Tuesday. Draymond Green has cleared COVID-19 protocols and will be playing against Miami.
Miami put all five starters in double-digit scoring in their last game with Omer Yurtseven and Tyler Herro scoring 22 points apiece and Jimmy Butler adding 21. Kyle Lowry had a double-double with 14 points and 12 assists while Caleb Martin added 15 points. However, the Heat got only 19 points from their bench and came up short against the Kings.
The Heat rank 17th in the league in scoring at 107.7 points per game. They are the 18th best rebounding team in the league at 44.3 boards grabbed per contest, and 8th in passing at 25.2 assists per game. Miami is third in the league in scoring defense at 103.6 points per game allowed.
Once again, it was Steph Curry who led the Golden State charge with 28 points, six rebounds, and 9 assists. Andrew Wiggins continued his excellent showing with 25 points while Otto Porter impressed with a 20-point outing. Andre Iguodala had a solid all-around game with 12 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists for the Dubs who bounced back from a 3-point loss to Denver in their previous game.
The Warriors are the 6th highest-scoring team in the NBA at 111.2 points per game this season. The Dubs are 6th in rebounding at 46.1 boards grabbed per contest and 2nd in passing at 28.1 assists per game. Golden State is the NBA’s top defensive team at 101.3 points per game allowed.
Miami is 5-1 SU in their last five games played. The Heat are 11-10 SU in 21 road games played this season. Golden State is 4-1 SU in their last five games played. The Warriors are 15-2 SU in their last 17 home games.
Head to head, the Heat have won four out of the last five games between these two teams. However, the Warriors are 6-1 SU in their last seven games played against the Heat.
The Warriors have gotten their players back from the COVID-19 protocol and although they are still without Klay Thompson and James Wiseman, the Heat are also missing key players in this game.
Dewayne Dedmon has cleared protocols but Miami will be without Bam Adebayo and PJ Tucker so the Heat are going to face a disadvantage off the boards against a Golden State team that is ranked 6th in rebounding and which is one of the best in limiting their opponents from dominating the boards.
The Warriors are coming off wins over the Suns and Jazz with a three-point setback to Denver sandwiched in between. No doubt, the Warriors are the best team in the league so far this season and they are also the best in defending their home court. Give me the Warriors to win at home against a tough Miami team.
Prediction: Warriors
Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Western Conference, 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Pacific Division, 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games, 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, and 1-5 ATS in their last six games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game.
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played. The Warriors are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against the Eastern Conference, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against an opponent with a winning percentage higher than .600, 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games against an opponent with a winning road record, 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games after an ATS win, 34-15-3 in their last 52 Monday games, and 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.
The Warriors are among the best teams in covering the spread this season at 22-11-2 ATS. Meanwhile, the Heat are just 20-17 ATS this season and just 11-10 ATS in 21 road games played so far.
Golden State is 13-5-1 ATS at home this season and they have won three out of their last four games by at least nine points and the fourth one by seven. The Warriors have a point differential of +9.9 points per game this season.
Miami has been above .500 when it comes to ATS record but the Warriors have been one of the best teams in the NBA against the betting spread. Given the Warriors’ cover rate, I’ll lay 8 points to Miami and predict that the Warriors are going to win this game by double digits.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors -10
The total has gone over in five out of the last six games played by the Heat. The over is 4-0 when their starting unit combined for more than 160 minutes in their previous game, 5-0 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning percentage higher than .600, 5-1 in their last six games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, and 7-3 in their last 10 road games.
The total has gone under in five out of the last seven games played by the Warriors. The under is 6-1 in the Warriors’ last seven games against an opponent with a winning record, 4-1 in their last five games after a straight-up win, 9-3 in their last 12 Monday games, 19-7 in their last 26 games when playing on one day rest, 5-2 in their last seven home games against an opponent with a winning road record, and 6-2-1 in their last nine home games.
The Heat trends point to over but the Warriors are the best under team in the NBA at 22-11-2 or 66.7%. Golden State ranks 6th in the league in scoring but what has made them an elite team this season is their defense. The Dubs have the number 1 scoring defense in the league at just 101.3 points per game allowed. They also crash the boards hard and are 6th in rebounding and not giving their opponents too many second-chance points.
Miami meanwhile, ranks in the bottom half in the league in scoring at just 107.7 points per game scored and are no. 3 in scoring defense. The Heat have allowed 110 or fewer points in seven out of their last 10 games played.
The Warriors’ defense will dictate the tempo of this game and turn it into a low-scoring affair. Give me these teams to go under the total.
Prediction: Under 219
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