The Charlotte Hornets head to the Fiserv Forum on Monday night to take on the defending champions Milwaukee Bucks.
Charlotte is currently 30-32 SU on the season and they are the 9th seed in the East. The Hornets are 4.5 games off the 6th seeded Boston Celtics and an outright playoff spot. They are just 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played and are coming off a one-point loss to the Detroit Pistons on Sunday. This will be the second night of a back-to-back schedule for Detroit.
Milwaukee is 36-24 SU on the season. The Bucks have dropped to 5th place in the latest Eastern Conference team standings but they are just four games behind the East leaders Miami Heat in a close race. The Bucks are just 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played and they have lost their last two games played. Milwaukee was beaten by the Brooklyn Nets in their last game played.
Charlotte lost to Detroit on Sunday behind Kelly Olynyk’s buzzer-beater. The Hornets were led by Terry Rozier who scored 33 points and went 6-10 from three-point range. Miles Bridges had 29 points and 10 boards in a double-double while LaMelo Ball added 17 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists.
Ball leads Charlotte at 19.9 points, 7.5 assists, and 1.6 steals per game this season. Bridges is also scoring 19.8 points per game and Rozier at 18.8 points per contest. Mason Plumlee is the team’s top rebounder at 8.1 boards grabbed per contest while also scoring 6.7 points per outing.
The Hornets are the no. 1 scoring team in the NBA at 114.0 points per game this season. Charlotte is 10th in rebounding at 45.2 boards grabbed per contest and is 3rd in passing at 27.3 assists per game. They are 28th overall in scoring defense at 114.4 points per game allowed.
The Bucks were beaten by a Brooklyn Nets team that was without KD and Ben Simmons in their last game. In the loss, Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 29 points and grabbed 14 rebounds while Khris Middleton added 25. Bobby Portis also had a huge game with 30 points and 12 boards while Jrue Holiday added 19 and 7 assists.
Antetokounmpo leads Milwaukee at 20.4 points and 11.3 rebounds per game while Holiday is their top passer at 6.6 assists per game while scoring 18.1 points per contest. Middleton is their second-leading scorer at 19.5 PPG while Portis is having a great season at 15.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per game for the Bucks.
Milwaukee is the 3rd best scoring team in the league at 113.3 points per game this season. The Bucks are also third in rebounding at 46.4 boards grabbed per contest and are 20th in passing at 23.4 assists per game. Milwaukee is 16th in scoring defense at 110.1 points per game allowed this season.
Charlotte is 2-10 SU in their last 12 games played. The Hornets are 15-17 SU in 32 road games played this season. Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in their last five games played. The Bucks are 20-12 SU in 32 games at the Fiserv Forum this season.
Head to head, Milwaukee is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against Charlotte. The Bucks are also 7-1 SU in their last seven games played against the Hornets.
The Bucks are in a funk right now with four losses in their last five games. However, when you look at their lineup, they are playing at full strength. They just lost to a Brooklyn Nets team that played without Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons.
However, the Hornets have been struggling more than the Bucks right now. This is a Charlotte team that got beaten last night by the woeful Detroit Pistons. Charlotte is the no. 1 scoring team in the NBA but defensively, they are in the bottom 3.
Milwaukee’s defense hasn’t been elite this season but when the Bucks play in their best night, they are still an impressive defensive team with Giannis, Holiday, and Portis. Milwaukee is also the 3rd best rebounding team in the league so there aren’t too many second-chance points for Charlotte here.
I think that the Hornets are in a bad spot here. The defending champions are looking to right the ship and they are playing a team that has struggled to pick up wins more than they have. With no one hurt, the Bucks have the full arsenal to throw at Charlotte, which may be too much for the Hornets’ poor defense to handle.
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks
The Hornets are 3-5-2 ATS in their last 10 games played. Charlotte is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games played, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Central Division, and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games against an opponent with a winning home record.
The Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games played. Milwaukee is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played against the Eastern Conference, 0-5 ATS in their last five February games, 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games against an opponent with a losing road record, 0-6 ATS in their last six Monday games, and 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
Head to head, the Hornets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games played against the Bucks.
Ten points is a lot to lay if we’re putting our money on the Bucks who are just 26-35 ATS on the season, including 11-21 ATS at the Fiserv Forum. Sure, the Hornets are coming off an awful loss to the woeful Pistons but 10 points may be too much to give the top-scoring team in the NBA.
The issue here with Charlotte is that they played the previous night and could be tired against a well-rested and healthy Milwaukee team. But given how the Bucks have struggled against the spread this season, I don’t think it’s wise to put Money on Milwaukee at the spread market.
No doubt that the Bucks will win this game and get back on track. However, I think the Hornets are going to give this a good fight and should stay within the spread line. Give me Milwaukee to win but Charlotte to cover.
Prediction: Charlotte Hornets +10.5
The total has gone under in 8 out of the last 12 games played by the Hornets. The under is 7-2 in their last nine games against the Eastern Conference, 6-1 in their last seven Monday games, and 5-2 in their last seven road games against an opponent with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the over is 4-1 in the Hornets’ last five road games, and 11-4 in their last 15 games when playing on zero days rest.
The total has gone over in each of the last eight games played by the Bucks. The over is 7-1 in the Bucks’ last eight games played at home, 5-1 in their last six games when playing on one day rest, and 4-1 in their last five home games against an opponent with a losing road record. Meanwhile, the total has gone under in four out of their last five games against an opponent with a losing straight-up record.
The under has been prominent in Charlotte’s games this season but they are the top-scoring team in the NBA at over 114 points per game. Defensively, the Hornets are also conceding 114+ points per game this season so this could still become a high-scoring contest.
Meanwhile, the Bucks have been a very good OVER team this season and they have seen the total go over in nine out of their last 10 games played. Milwaukee at least 120 points six times in their last seven games played, including 128 or more four times. Defensively, the Bucks have also conceded 123 or more points four times in their last five games played so Milwaukee’s defense is leaky right now.
With both teams playing at a fast pace and playing poor defense right now, this should be a game that will be decided by the better offense. The total is quite high but I trust in these teams’ offense.
Prediction: Over 241
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