How to Hedge Sports Bets, and Is It a Good Idea?

Most sports bettors have a vague idea on how to hedge bets. The average bettor knows that this involves wagering on multiple outcomes.

Of course, having a vague notion of hedge betting and successfully using this strategy are two different things.

It’s all too easy to hedge wagers and lose value to sportsbooks. Therefore, it’s important to know the different facets of hedging bets and look for right opportunities.

I’m going to cover what bet hedging is, along with the proper times to use this strategy. I’ll also discuss when you should avoid hedging bets and how this concept is commonly confused with arbitrage betting.

What Is Hedging Bets in Sports Betting?

Hedge betting involves wagering on an opposite outcome from your original wager. This can either be used to increase your profit potential or act as insurance when trying to eliminate risk.

This only explains the core concept of hedging. You must also account for how much money you want to wager on Buffalo.

Here are the 3 ways in which you can do this:

• 1) Bet the same amount of money on the Bills as you do the Patriots
• 2) Bet less money on the Bills because you still think the Patriots can win
• 3) Wager more money on Buffalo because you now think they have a greater chance to win

Experienced bettors don’t bet wildly different on the hedge. Instead, they’ll take a small guaranteed loss on a bad original bet or book a small profit on a more attractive hedge wager.

Sportsbooks don’t let you take bets back once they’re confirmed. Therefore, hedging bets is a smart strategy under certain circumstances.

Just be aware that when you hedge equally on both sides, you’re guaranteed a small loss with the 10% vigorish (a.k.a. juice). But again, this is an acceptable outcome when you have a bad feeling about the first bet.

Hedging Against a Bad Bet

Sometimes we make a poor sports wager, only to realize it after the fact. Here are situations where you may make a bad bet and want to rectify it:

• You bet on a team before a major injury is announced (like in the first example)
• You make a wager when you’re intoxicated and later regret it
• Your bet has serious line movement that goes against you, and you hedge on the other side
• You sleep on your wager and feel that you handicapped it wrong
• A key player is suspended by the league after you bet
• You see new information that convinces you the original pick is wrong

Some of these scenarios would be your fault, while others aren’t. But they all represent situations where you can hedge to minimize losses.

I don’t recommend that you hedge on a regular basis, especially if you’re a new bettor. Instead, it’s best to gain experience and feel out the times when it’s best to hedge.

Can You Hedge Sports Bets for a Profit?

Hedging wagers isn’t all about minimizing losses on bad decisions. Instead, this strategy can guarantee a profit in certain situations.

Here are a few scenarios where hedging can either guarantee profits or bring you greater winnings.

Hedging a Single Bet Against a Futures Bet

Sports betting futures are attractive because they give you the chance to bet small to win a big profit. They also present one of the best opportunities to hedge wagers.

Here’s an example:

• You bet $500 on the St. Louis Rams winning the Super Bowl at 20 to 1
• The Rams make the Super Bowl and put you in line for a $10,000 profit
• St. Louis must win, or else you end up with nothing
• This leads you to bet $2,500 on the underdog opponent at 2 to 1 odds, guaranteeing a $5,000 profit
• If the Rams win, then you collect even more at $7,000 ($10k – [500 + 2,500])

Professional sports bettors won’t hedge in this instance because the Rams are already favored. And it would offer negative expected value (-EV) to bet on the underdog opponent.

But if you’re a recreational bettor who’s never won $5,000 in your life, then you should consider hedging. You’ll collect a significant amount of money either way and build your bankroll.

The Second Wager Has Positive Expected Value

It seems contradictory to think that you can have a bet on each side that offers positive expected value (+EV). But this can arise in certain instances.

Here’s one example of when both the original and hedge bets can offer +EV:

• You bet on the Houston Rockets at -3.5
• They’re beating the San Antonio Spurs by 15 points at half
• Houston is favored on the second-half line at -1.5
• This was supposed to be a close matchup
• But the Rockets shot the lights out in the first half
• You believe that the Spurs will cover based on how Houston over-performed

Odds are that you’re going to win the first wager based on the way things are going. And your handicapping skills suggest that another +EV is available in the second half.

Even if you lose this bet, you’ll at least hedge if your original wager comes through as expected. But the upside is that you win two bets, making a hedge worth the risk when considering the second +EV wager on the table.

Hedging with Middle Bets

Middle wagers are common in NFL spread betting, where you can easily judge line movement throughout the week. A good middling strategy is to buy into a line early and hedge on the other side after movement.

Here’s an example:

• Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (-110)
• Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (-110)
• I bet on the Cowboys at +3.5
• The line moves later in the week
• Dallas Cowboys +2.5 (-110)
• Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (-110)
• I take the Eagles at -2.5

Hedging in this case makes sense because it gives me two opportunities to win. I need the Eagles to win by 3 points, which covers both their current line (-2.5) and the original Cowboys line (+3.5).

NFL teams win by 3 points 15.4% of the time, which is the league’s most common win margin. But even if this doesn’t happen, I only lose the 10% juice on my losing wager.

Here’s the math on why hedging with middle bets is profitable in this situation:

• $110 bet on Dallas at 3.5
• $110 bet on Philadelphia at -2.5
• Winning both wagers pays $200 profit
• You win both bets 15.4 out 100 times
• 200 x 15.4 = $3,080
• Winning one bet pays $100
• Losing one bet costs $110
• 100 – 110 = $10 loss
• You lose both bets 84.6 out of 100 times
• 10 x 84.6 = $846
• 3,080 – 846 = $2,234
• 2,234 / 100 = $22.34

The math shows that middling $220 total in this scenario pays a $22.34 average profit.

Unfortunately, situations like this don’t arise every day in sports betting. But if you can get in early on good line movement – especially those involving common win margins – then you can make nice profits.

Matched Betting

Matched betting involves hedging wagers to take advantage of a free online sports bet. You take equal action on both sides of a line so that you’re guaranteed a profit with the free wager.

Here are the steps to using matched betting:

• 1) Open accounts with two online sportsbooks, ensuring that at least one offers a free bet
• 2) Make a wager at the sportsbook with the free bet offer
• 3) Wager on the other side of the line at the other sportsbook
• 4) You’re guaranteed to win the value of the free bet, minus 10% vig on the losing wager

Bookmakers normally require you to deposit and bet your own money to qualify for the free wager. Some sportsbooks also make you rollover the free bet value before cashing out winnings.

Here’s an example:

• You earn a $25 free bet
• Rollover requirements are 6x the bet amount
• 25 x 6 = $150
• You must wager $150 before withdrawing the free bet winnings

You may have to rollover a higher value. But this shouldn’t be a problem if you plan on making consistent sports bets anyways.

When Hedging Bets Is a Bad Idea

Hedge betting obviously doesn’t work every time, or else everybody would be a winner. The average bettor who doesn’t understand hedge wagering puts themselves into a lot of -EV situations.

The key to being a successful hedge bettor is identifying these situations and avoiding them. Here are the times where hedging wagers isn’t good idea.

Hedging with a Second -EV Bet

The worst thing that you can do is make a -EV bet, then hedge it with another -EV wager. This is an online sportsbook’s dream because you’re throwing down dumb money on top of dumb money and guaranteeing them vigorish.

This situation often arises when you make a -EV bet before the game, then place a bad live wager after the game starts.

Here’s an example:

• I bet on the Denver Nuggets to cover +4.5
• The Nuggets are losing by 10 at halftime
• I bet on Denver at +2 for the second half because I think they can play better
• But I don’t do any true handicapping to determine this

Novice bettors often think that they’re hedging in this situation, simply because they’re betting on the other side in the second half. But the truth is that they’re exposing themselves to more risk if they don’t have the skills to determine whether this is a +EV bet.

Hedging at the End of a Parlay

Parlay bets are popular because you can win such a large payout. Given the size of the payout involved with large parleys, some players wonder if they should hedge near the end to guarantee winnings.

Here’s an example:

• You bet $100 on a 6-team parlay that pays 47.41 to 1
• The first five teams in your parlay come through
• You’ll receive a $4,741 payout if the sixth team wins
• But you could also hedge the sixth game by betting on the opponent

This seems like a smart move because you guarantee yourself a big win no matter what. But the problem is that you can reduce your expected value.

The key thing to understand is that a parlay bet is simply staking your original bet over and over. Here’s an explanation using the same parlay above with 10% juice:

• Game 1 – $100 to win $90.91 ($190.91 total amount)
• Game 2 – $190.91 to win $173.55 (364.46 total amount)
• Game 3 – $364.46 to win $331.33 ($695.79 total amount)
• Game 4 – $695.79 to win $632.54 ($1,328.33 total amount)
• Game 5 – $1,328.33 to win $1,207.57 ($2,535.91 total amount)
• Game 6 – $2,535.91 to win $2,305.37 ($4,841.27 total amount)

Winning these six bets delivers a payout worth 47.41 to 1. The sheer size of the payout makes it seem like you can afford to hedge on the final game just to guarantee a big profit.

But let’s say you hedge with the exact amount that you stand to risk in the sixth game:

• Single bet – $2,535.91 to win $2,305.37
• Game 6 of parlay – $2,535.91 to win $2,305.37

This looks equal on the surface. But look at your total amount after the fifth win ($2,535.91) in the parlay versus what you’d win with the single-game bet ($2,305.37).

By hedging on the opponent in the sixth game, you’re surrendering $200.64 in value (2,535.91 – 2,305.37). You’re better off sticking with a 5-team parlay without the hedge on game 6.

Hedging the final game of a parlay isn’t always a bad idea, depending upon what odds you’re getting.

But in the case of 47.41 to 1 on a 6-team parlay – which is more reasonable than the 45-to-1 payouts that some sportsbooks offer – you lose value when hedging the last contest.

How Does Hedge Betting Differ from Arbitrage Betting?

Hedge wagering and arbitrage betting are two strategies that can easily be confused.

Arbitrage betting is when you wager on different outcomes based on an odds discrepancy between sportsbooks. This strategy only works when the discrepancy offers a profitable opportunity.

Hedge betting is when you wager on different outcomes in relation to the original bet. This strategy is about reacting to any change in the original circumstance and betting to either minimize risk or guarantee a profit.

Arbitrage betting requires you to wager on all possible outcomes of a contest. A soccer match would call on you to bet on both teams winning along with a tie.

You obviously can’t make all these wagers at a single sportsbook – otherwise, you’d lose based on the juice. Instead, you need to look across multiple sportsbooks to find odds that combine to create a profitable situation.

Here are sample odds from a single sportsbook:

• AC Milan +155
• Inter Milan +165
• Draw +210

You may like the draw odds here, but want better odds on AC Milan and Intern Milan winning. And if you can find better deals at other sportsbooks, then you can combine these wagers to earn profits.

In summary, the key difference is that arbitrage involves looking for good odds to cover each outcome. You don’t, however, base your strategy on the original wager.

Hedge betting differs because you base your subsequent wager(s) on the first bet.

Conclusion

Hedge betting is more complicated than simply betting on both sides of an outcome. Instead, you need to pay attention to the situation at hand and decide whether there’s a profitable hedging opportunity.

Good times to hedge wagers include when you’re near a successful futures bet, find a good second hedge with +EV, middling, or matched betting.

The worst time for hedge betting is when you’re making a second -EV bet or hedging against favorable parlay odds.

These are rough guidelines that you can work from when trying to spot profitable hedge bets. But there aren’t any one-size-fits-all indicators with this strategy.

You can use what I’ve discussed here as a base. But experience will help you take things further and consistently spot good hedging opportunities.

Combining good hedge betting and skilled handicapping is an excellent way to make long-term sports betting profits.