The Indiana Hoosiers go on the road in a Big 10 matchup against the Ohio State Buckeyes on October 6, 2018 at the Ohio Stadium.
Indiana has been a surprise this season, reeling off four wins in their first five games. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are the only Big 10 East team without a loss this season at 5-0.
Ohio State passed their biggest test of the season so far when they defeated 9th ranked Penn State in dramatic fashion. The Buckeyes were down 12 with only eight minutes left to play but they scored the game’s final 13 points to pull off the come from behind 27-26 victory.
The Buckeyes clinched the victory after a 24 yard touchdown pass from Dwayne Haskins to K.J. Hill with 2:04 left on the clock. Haskins has been great this season, completing 70.8% of his passes for a total of 1,464 passing yards with 19 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Ohio State’s running game is led by J.K Dobbins who has 380 rushing yards and three scores on 73 carries and Mike Weber who has 350 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 61 carries. K.J. Hill is the leading receiver with 318 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 27 receptions.
The Hoosiers opened the season with three straight victories before the Spartans of Michigan State snapped the run. But Indiana returned with yet another victory last week over Rutgers, beating the Scarlet Knights 24-17 in New Jersey.
Peyton Ramsey has completed 71% of his passes and has accounted for 1.039 passing yards with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. Ramsey has thrown two or more touchdowns in four out of his last six games played.
Stevie Scott leads Indiana on the ground with 464 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 98 carries. Whop Philyor is the top receiver with a total of 190 yards and one score on 18 receptions. Donovan Hale has 176 receiving yards with three scores for Indiana.
Indiana is 4-1 SU in their last five games but are 0-5 SU in their last five games versus Ohio State and 0-5 in their last five games on the road against Ohio State. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 5-0 SU in their last five games and 5-0 SU in their last five games at home.
No question about picking the winner here as the Ohio Buckeyes have dominated their all-time head to head series at 74-9-4 including last year’s 49-21 season opener win on the road. They have also won the last 23 meetings between these teams.
Sure, the Hoosiers are backed up by a Top 25 defense that forces two turnovers per game but they have yet to face a truly formidable offense this season. The Buckeyes have torched their opposition at home and have looked unstoppable with space. I don’t think Indiana is playing as well nor does it have as much talent as the home team. We’re picking Ohio State to beat Indiana on 10/06/18.
The moneyline odds weren’t out yet when this was written but just based on the all-time head to head meeting between these teams, the Buckeyes are expected to be heavy favorites here. You can check on the betting sites again but I figure it will be hard to find value betting on the moneyline. The Spread and Over/Under odds though are a different story.
The Hoosiers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on the road and 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 conference games but are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Ohio State and 4-1 ATS when playing against Ohio State on the road. On the other hand, the Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played at home.
Not only has Ohio State beaten Indiana in their last 10 meetings, they have done so by an average winning margin of 26.8 points per game. Sure, the Hoosiers have been good at covering the spread against them but Ohio State is playing at a different level right now, especially at their home field. The Buckeyes have also covered as double digit favorites in 10 out of their last 17 games. Prediction: Ohio State -25
The total has gone under in 10 out of the last 14 games played by Indiana and has gone under in 5 out of the last 7 games of Indiana when playing Ohio State on the road. The under is also 5-2 in Ohio State’s last 7 games and 4-2 in the last 6 home games for Ohio State.
The Buckeyes are an offensive machine, averaging over 600 yards of offense per game and 7.1 yards per play. With those numbers, they have been able to average 49 points per game, 6th best in the nation. Offensively, the Hoosiers rank 81st in scoring at 28.2 points per game so based on averages, the total should go over. But although their last meeting combined for a total of 70 points, only three out of their last 10 meetings have combined for 62 points or more so historically, this hasn’t been a 60 plus scoring affair.
The best value bet here is the Under 62.5 because of the plus money but personally, I’m more comfortable laying the big numbers on the spread. The Hoosiers have been good covering the spread against the Buckeyes but the 25 point spread for Saturday’s game is well within the average winning margin of the Buckeyes in their last 10 games. Prediction: Under 62.5
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