Blake Daniels, December 8, 2022

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The New York Jets hit the road and head to the Bills Stadium to take on the Super Bowl LVII betting favorites Buffalo Bills in a key AFC East match on Sunday.

New York is 7-5 SU on the season and they are 3rd in the latest AFC team standings. The Jets currently hold the final wild-card berth in the AFC at no. 7 in the latest Conference Standings. They are also just two games behind the Bills in the latest division standings. The Jets lost to the Minnesota Vikings last week.

Buffalo is the AFC East leader and the no. 1 seed in the latest Conference team standings. The Bill are also the Super Bowl LVII betting favorites but are just 3-3 SU in their last 6 games played. Buffalo has won seven out of its last 9 games played including the last 3. The Bills defeated the New England Patriots 24-10 last weekend.

New York Jets

The Jets opened the season with losses to the Baltimore Raves and Cincinnati Bengals in two out of their last three games played. New York then won five out of its next 6 games, picking up wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos, and the Bills.

Last week, the Jets rallied from a 20-6 halftime defeat and outscored the Vikings 16-7 in the second half but it wasn’t enough to rally them to victory as the Vikings hung on to win 27-22.

New York is 15th in passing offense at 224.1 yards per game this season. They are just 20th in rushing offense with an average of 115.1 rushing yards per game. The Jets are 18th in scoring at 21.0 points per game this season while they rank 6th in scoring defense at only 18.6 points per game conceded.

Buffalo Bills

Meanwhile, the Bills hit the gates with back-to-back wins. Buffalo then lost to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3 before beating the Ravens, Steelers, Chiefs, and Packers. The Bills then lost to the Jets and Vikings before taking out the Lions and Browns the last time out.

Buffalo took a 17-7 lead at the half and never looked back to beat the New England Patriots. Josh Allen had 223 yards with two scores while James Cook rushed for 64 yards.

The Bills are 3rd in passing offense at 274.5 yards per game while also ranking in the Top 10 at no. 8 in rushing offense at 136.3 yards per game. Buffalo is the NBA’s 3rd best-scoring team at 27.8 points per game this season. The Bills are also 4th in scoring defense at 17.4 points per game allowed this season.

Jets vs Bills SU Prediction

The Jets are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Bills. New York is 1-2 in their last three meetings in Buffalo.

New York Jets SU trends:

• The Jets are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games played.
• The Jets are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games played on the road.
• The Jets are 3-1 SU in their last 4 games played against the AFC.
• The Jets are 2-14 SU in their last 16 games played against the AFC East Division.

Buffalo Bills SU trends:

• The Bills are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games played.
• The Bills are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games played at home.
• The Bills are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games played against the AFC East Division.
• The Bills are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games played in December.

The Bills are currently the no. 1 seed in the AFC right now while the Jets hold the 7th spot, which earns the final wild-card berth in the conference. Should the Bills slip to second overall in the standings, there’s a good chance they could face the Jets again in the playoffs so this game has big implications.

After the Chiefs lost to the Bengals last weekend, the Bills now control their destiny. Buffalo heads to this game with a three-game winning streak and has the longer time to prepare for this match-up as they played last Thursday and beat the New England Patriots 24-10. The Bills are also looking for revenge as the Jet beat them 20-17 in New York last November 6th.

Since their last meeting, there has been a quarterback change in New York. The Jets have benched Zach Wilson and Mike White has played well recently, throwing for 315 passing yards with 3 TDs last November 27th and 369 yards against the Minnesota Vikings last week.

The Jets have moved better with White instead of Zach Wilson, even if the scoring numbers don’t reflect it. New York is averaging 476 yards in White’s two starts, including a season-high 486 last week against Minnesota. The Jets converted on only one of six red zone trips last week and rank 26th in the league in TD percentage in the red zone.

Meanwhile, the Bills have gotten more from its ground attack as of late. Last week, rookie James Cook gained 105 yards from scrimmage while helping the Bills outgain the Patriots on the ground 132-60. With last week’s win, the Bills are now 3-0 SU when their offense features more runs than passes. Don’t be surprised if the Bills choose to run on Sunday against a Jets defense that is better against the pass than against the run.

Buffalo has had 3 extra days to prepare for this game and the Bills have won their last three games played. For as long as Josh Allen doesn’t throw multiple INTs like he did the first time that these teams met this season, this should be a decisive win for the Buffalo Bills.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills

Jets vs Bills ATS Prediction

The Jets are 2-3 ATS in their last five games played against the Bills. New York is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in Buffalo. The home team is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 head-to-head meetings.

New York Jets ATS trends:

• The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Jets are 13-28-3 ATS in their last 44 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Jets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on turf.
• The Jets are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games against the AFC East.
• The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 14.

Buffalo Bills AT trends:

• The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The Bills are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the AFC.
• The Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in December.
• The Bills are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
• The Bills are 11-4-3 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Bills are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 versus the AFC East.
• The Bills are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
• The Bills are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 14.
• The Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

White’s ability to move the ball well will help the Vikings keep this game close early on. However, as we’ve seen all season long, they have struggled to score points, especially in the red zone. Meanwhile, the Bills have covered the spread 8 times in their last 12 games played and are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine at home.

Buffalo has outscored New York by 14 points per game in their last 3 head to head meetings. The Bills are coming off a double-digit win over the Patriots. They should be feeling good about themselves right now. Give me the Bills to retain their mastery over the Jets. I’ll take the home team here.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills

Jets vs Bills Over/Under 

The total has gone under in five out of the last 7 games played between these two teams. The under is also 2-1 in their last 3 games played in Buffalo.

New York Jets over/under trends:

• The under is 5-2 in the Jets’ last 7 games overall.
• The under is 4-0 in the Jets’ last 4 games played against the AFC.
• The under is 4-1 in the Jets’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Jets’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 4-1 in the Jets’ last 5 games in December.
• The under is 4-1 in the Jets’ last 5 games played versus the AFC East.
• The under is 15-5-2 in the Jets’ last 22 games in Week 14.
• The under is 8-3 in the Jets’ last 11 road games against a team with a winning home record.
• The over is 5-2 in the Jets’ last 7 games following a straight-up loss.

Buffalo Bills over/under trends:

• The under is 8-2 in the Bills’ last 10 games overall.
• The under is 5-0 in the Bills’ last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 4-0 in the Bills’ last 4 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 7-0 in the Bills’ last 7 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 6-1 in the Bills’ last 7 games played against the AFC.
• The under is 5-1 in the Bills’ last 6 games against a team with a winning record.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bills’ last 5 games versus the AFC East.
• The under is 11-3 in the Bills’ last 14 games in Week 14
• The over is 9-2 in the Bills’ last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 10-3 in the Bills’ last 13 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 10-4 in the Bills’ last 14 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

These teams have combined to score just 41.6 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 44.33 points per game in their last three.

The Jets’ defense has allowed its opponents to score over 22 points only twice this season and hasn’t conceded more than 27 points this season. Their issue is that they have scored 20 or below points, four times in their last six games played.

With the way the Jets have been performing on offense, I don’t think they will help the Bills in hitting the total. New York’s tough defense will also limit the Bills’ scoring opportunities somehow in this game.

Give me these teams to go under the total.

Prediction: Under 43.5