New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts 11/04/2021 NFL Preview, and Prediction

The New York Jets head to the Lucas Oil Stadium to test the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9’s installment of Thursday Night Football.

New York is coming off a stunning upset win over the Cincinnati Bengals last week behind back-up quarterback Mike White who sparked the offense with an impressive performance. Starter Zach Wilson is still out with a knee injury which means that White will get another start on Thursday.

Indianapolis lost in overtime for the second time in four weeks last weekend when they dropped a 34-31 loss to the Tennessee Titans. The Colts are now three games back in the AFC South and with the season hitting the midway point, they cannot afford any more letups if they still want to make the postseason.

New York Jets

The Jets offense which scored just a total of 20 points in its first three games played this season showed signs of life behind backup QB Mike White who became only the second QB ever to throw for over 400 yards in his NFL debut. The Jets outgained the Bengals 511-318 in total yards while picking up 32 first downs and controlling 36:20 of the possession time.

Mike White has passed for 607 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions this season. Michael Carter is the team’s leading rusher with 279 rushing yards on 73 carries with three scores. Carter is also the team’s leading receiver with 26 catches for 226 yards while Corey Davis has caught 24 passes for a team-high 349 receiving yards.

New York ranks 19th in passing offense at 230.9 yards per game. The Jets are dead last in the league in rushing offense with only 75.9 yards per game. They are also just 30th in scoring at only 16.3 points per game scored and are third from the bottom in scoring defense with 29.4 points per game allowed

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts let one slip away last weekend when they lost at home to the Tennessee Titans by a field goal. Prior to that, Indianapolis had won three of four games to get back in contention. With the loss to the Titans, Indianapolis is now 3-5 and dropped further back in the AFC South race with the Tennessee sweeping their series.

Carson Wentz has thrown for a total of 1,926 yards with 14 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Jonathan Taylor leads the Colts in rushing with 639 rushing yards on 121 carries with six touchdowns. Michael Pittman Jr. leads the team with 45 catches for 594 yards with four TD passes caught.

Indianapolis ranks 23rd in the league in passing offense with an average of 228.9 yards per game. They are 12th in rushing offense at 122 yards per contest. The Colts are 14th in scoring at 25.0 points per game and they are also 14th in scoring defense at 22.9 points per game allowed.

Who Wins?

The Jets are 4-16 SU in their last 20 games played. New York is 0-4 SU in four road games played this season. The Colts are 3-6 SU in their last nine games played. Indianapolis is 1-3 SU in four home games played this season.

Indianapolis has been playing well offensively in their last three games as they have scored at least 30 points in each game while going 2-1 SU during that span. The Jets meanwhile, rank third from the bottom in points allowed at 29.4 and have given up 54 and 31 points in their last two games played.

White was impressive in his debut but with due respect for him, you can’t expect him to put up the same numbers he did last weekend on a short week, not to mention on the road. I’m going with the Colts to pull off the victory at home.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts

Other Bets to Make

The Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games played. New York is 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 road games, 14-33-4 ATS in their last 51 games as road underdogs, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs, 1-4 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win, 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against an opponent with a losing home record, and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.

The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played overall. Indianapolis is 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 Thursday games, 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after an ATS loss, 6-2 ATS in their last eight Week 9 games, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after a straight up loss, 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the AFC, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven November games.

The Jets showed more life with White playing at QB last week. While I don’t think he can replicate such effort, he’s still going to breathe life into the offense. Indianapolis has played better than New York this season and they are on a good stretch right now.

There’s no question that the Colts are the better team and more consistent than the Jets. However, I think 10.5 points is too many to lay against an opponent who may carry some momentum with them. I don’t think the Jets will win but I think they will keep within single digits of the Colts. I’ll take the plus point here.

Prediction: New York Jets +10.5

The total has gone over in each of the last four games played by the Jets. The over is 4-0 in their last four games as underdogs, 4-1 in their last five Thursday games, 12-3-1 in their last 16 Week 9 games, 4-1 in their last five games played on field turf, and 16-5 in their last 21 games against an opponent with a losing record.

The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played by the Colts. The over is 4-1 in their last five games after an ATS loss, 4-1 in their last five November games, 5-2 in their last seven Week 9 games, and 7-3 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings against the Jets.

These two teams have combined to score an average of 49.3 points per game in their last 10 meetings, and 56.67 points per game in their last three encounters.

The Colts rank in the upper half of the league in scoring at 25.0 points per game and have scored at least 30 points per game in each of their last three games played. New York ranks at the bottom of the league in scoring defense at 29.4 points per game allowed. The Jets have given up an average of 37.33 points per game in their last three games played.

Given how good their offense has been as of late, and how the Jets’ defense has been terrible this season, the Colts should score enough points to carry the Jets and the score over the total.

Prediction: Over 46