Last month, the Cincinnati Bengals selected LSU quarterback Joe Burrow with the #1 overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft. The Bengals needed a new signal-caller after Andy Dalton led the team to a dismal 2-14 record last season. Burrow was seen as the top plug-and-play quarterback in the draft after having the best quarterback season in college football.
Burrow led the LSU Tigers to the National title in 2019, earning the 2019 Heisman Trophy honors. He was named Offensive Player of the games after leading LSU to a 42-25 win over Clemson, giving the Tigers their first National championship since 2007. Burrow was also received the Maxwell Award for the best all-around player in college football. He was also the Walter Camp Award for the best football player in the nation.
Along with the prestige of being the #1 pick comes the pressure of turning things around in Cincinnati. Bengals fans are confident that Burrow can mirror his successful 2019 NCAA season in the NFL although some doubt if he can do better.
Burrow is the betting favorite to win the 2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Recent top quarterback picks have made the smooth transition to the NFL with eight out of the last 17 Offensive Rookie of the Year awards going to quarterbacks. But the offensive Rookie of the Year is another story.
For this article, we will take a look at the prop bets for Joe Burrow’s statistics for the 2020-21 season and we will make our predictions for each proposition bet.
Joe Burrow is coming off arguably the best season ever for any NCAA quarterback. He passed for 5,671 yards with a 76.3% completion then set an NCAA record with 60 touchdowns in 15 games played for the LSU Tigers. He led his team to the National title and won the Heisman Trophy as well. Sorry if I repeated those stats, but they’re too impressive not to mention again.
Last season, 2019 Offensive Rookie of the Year and Top overall draft pick Kyler Murray passed for 3,722 yards for the Arizona Cardinals. In the history of the NFL, only 21 rookie signal-callers have thrown for over 3,000 yards during their first NFL season. Only 10 of them have passed for at least 4,500 yards, and only three have passed for at least 4,000 yards.
Andrew Luck set the record with 4,374 in 2012 while former Heisman trophy winners Cam Newton and Jameis Winston threw a total of 4,051 and 4,042, respectively during their rookie seasons. However, the Cincinnati Bengals are coming off a 2-14 season and they are expected to win only five games this coming season. So what does that have to do with Burrow?
The Bengals aren’t just expected to lose 11 games this coming season. They will likely be trailing in most of those games and the ball with being in the hands of Joe Burrow a lot, especially during the cond These game situations could pad his passing numbers and easily give him over 3,800 passing yards next season.
But not only is Burrow a talented QB who can get the job done. He also has an excellent offensive team. A.J. Green has caught over 1,000 yards in six straight seasons while Boyd led the Bengals with 94 catches for 1,046 receiving yards last season.
Andy Dalton threw for 3,494 passing yards and Green wasn’t there yet. Also, Burrow will have the benefit of a talented running back in Joe Mixon who has rushed for at least 1,100 yards in two out of his first three years in the NFL. Mixon also has 108 catches in 44 career games played.
The Bengals are expected to trail many games this season. Because of that, the Bengals will have to pass more than they will run. Some of these passing statistics will happen in “garbage time” but when you are making a wager on a prop bet, there’s no such thing as garbage yards. I think Burrow passes Murray’s 3,722 and gets at least 3,800.
Prediction: Over 3,800 (-120)
Joe Burrow was known for his pinpoint accuracy last season at LSU. He completed 76.3% of his passes and threw only six interceptions in a total of 527 pass completions. But the defenses at the next level are a lot tougher than what Burrow has seen so far in his football career. And the Bengals are a team that allowed their quarterbacks to get sacked 48 times last season.
Baker Mayfield threw 14 interceptions during his rookie year. Last season, Kyler Murray had a total of 12 picks. Jameis Winston only had 15 interceptions in 16 games started as a rookie in 2015. I mean Mayfield, Murray, and Winston are all great quarterbacks but I think that Burrow was more accurate, at least in college. I think he will be able to carry that to the NFL. I like Joe Burrow to throw for under 16 touchdowns this season.
Prediction: Under 16.5 (-120)
To me, this is by far, the best Joe Burrow prop bet to bet on and I will make by bet on this today. In some betting sites, this number is higher. For example, William Hill has this at 24 touchdowns as of 05/03/20. But even then, I think that 24 is within the reach of Joe Burrow during his rookie season.
Forget that Andy Dalton and rookie Ryan Findley combined to throw only 18 passing touchdowns for the Bengals last season. Burrow is the real deal, or at least that’s what coach Zach Taylor believes. Regardless, a total of 14 NFL quarterbacks threw at least 24 touchdowns last season. New York Giants’ second-year man Daniel Jones threw 24 touchdown passes last season and he doesn’t have the kind of weapons that Burrow has in Cincinnati. The likes of A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, and Joe Mixon are excellent weapons to have during a quarterback’s rookie season.
Prediction: Over 22.5 (-120)
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